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How Much Information Is Incorporated into Financial Asset Prices? Experimental Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Lionel Page
  • Christoph Siemroth

Abstract

We investigate the informational content of prices in financial asset markets. To do so, we use a large number of market experiments in which the amount of information held by traders is precisely observed. We derive a new method to estimate how much of this information is incorporated into market prices. We find that public information is almost completely reflected in prices but that surprisingly little private information—less than 50%—is incorporated into prices. Our estimates therefore suggest that, while semistrong informational efficiency is consistent with the data, financial market prices may be very far from strong-form efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Lionel Page & Christoph Siemroth, 2021. "How Much Information Is Incorporated into Financial Asset Prices? Experimental Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(9), pages 4412-4449.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:34:y:2021:i:9:p:4412-4449.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhaa143
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Filippin & Marco Mantovani, 2023. "Risk aversion and information aggregation in binary‐asset markets," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), pages 753-798, May.
    2. Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2022. "Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(7), pages 5216-5232, July.
    3. Brice Corgnet & Mark DeSantis & Christoph Siemroth, 2023. "Algorithmic Trading, Price Efficiency and Welfare: An Experimental Approach," Working Papers 2313, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    4. Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark DeSantis & Kyle Hampton & Erik O. Kimbrough, 2023. "When Do Security Markets Aggregate Dispersed Information?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(6), pages 3697-3729, June.
    5. Simone Alfarano & Albert Banal-Estañol & Eva Camacho & Giulia Iori & Burcu Kapar & Rohit Rahi, 2024. "Centralized vs Decentralized Markets: The Role of Connectivity," Working Papers 1420, Barcelona School of Economics.
    6. Marco Mantovani & Antonio Filippin, 2024. "When do prediction markets return average beliefs? Experimental evidence," Working Papers 532, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    7. Vandenbruaene, Jonas & De Ceuster, Marc & Annaert, Jan, 2023. "Does time series momentum also exist outside traditional financial markets? Near-laboratory evidence from sports betting," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    8. Arturo Macias, 2022. "Capital structure irrelevance in the laboratory: an experiment with complete and asymmetric information," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(5), pages 1418-1440, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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