This paper provides an investigation of the role of momentum and social learning in sequential voting systems. In the econometric model, voters are uncertain over candidate quality, and voters in late states attempt to infer the information held by those in early states from voting returns. Candidates experience momentum effects when their performance in early states exceeds expectations. The empirical application focuses on the responses of daily polling data to the release of voting returns in the 2004 presidential primary. We find that Kerry benefited from surprising wins in early states and took votes away from Dean, who held a strong lead prior to the beginning of the primary season. The voting weights implied by the estimated model demonstrate that early voters have up to 20 times the influence of late voters in the selection of candidates, demonstrating a significant departure from the ideal of "one person, one vote." We then address several alternative, non-learning explanations for our results. Finally, we run simulations under different electoral structures and find that a simultaneous election would have been more competitive due to the absence of herding and that alternative sequential structures would have yielded different outcomes.
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number
13637.
Length: Date of creation: Nov 2007 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13637
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Find related papers by JEL classification: D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
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Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004.
"Prediction Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
10504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Other versions:
Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2004.
"Prediction Markets,"
Research Papers
1854, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
[Downloadable!]
Battaglini, Marco, 2004.
"Sequential Voting with Abstention,"
Papers
05-19-2004, Princeton University, Research Program in Political Economy.
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