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Optimal Primaries

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  • Patrick Hummel
  • Richard Holden

Abstract

We analyze a model of US presidential primary elections for a given party. There are two candidates, one of whom is a higher quality candidate. Voters reside in m different states and receive noisy private information about the identity of the superior candidate. States vote in some order, and this order is chosen by a social planner. We provide conditions under which the ordering of the states that maximizes the probability that the higher quality candidate is elected is for states to vote in order from smallest to largest populations and most accurate private information to least accurate private information.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 19340.

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Date of creation: Aug 2013
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Publication status: published as Hummel, Patrick & Holden, Richard, 2014. "Optimal primaries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 64-75.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19340

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References

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  1. Brams, Steven J. & Davis, Morton D., 1980. "Optimal Resource Allocation in Presidential Primaries," Working Papers, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University 80-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  2. Steven Callander, 2007. "Bandwagons and Momentum in Sequential Voting," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 653-684.
  3. Patrick Hummel & Richard Holden, 2013. "Optimal Primaries," NBER Working Papers 19340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Matilde Bombardini & Francesco Trebbi, 2007. "Votes or Money? Theory and Evidence from the US Congress," Working Paper Series, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis 21-07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007.
  5. Deniz Selman, 2011. "Optimal Sequencing of Presidential Primaries," Working Papers, Bogazici University, Department of Economics 2011/09, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
  6. Patrick Hummel & Brian Knight, 2012. "Sequential or Simultaneous Elections? A Welfare Analysis," NBER Working Papers 18076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 2010. "A theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and cultural change as informational Cascades," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1193, David K. Levine.
  8. Klumpp, Tilman & Polborn, Mattias K., 2006. "Primaries and the New Hampshire Effect," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 90(6-7), pages 1073-1114, August.
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  11. Strumpf, Koleman S, 2002. " Strategic Competition in Sequential Election Contests," Public Choice, Springer, Springer, vol. 111(3-4), pages 377-97, June.
  12. David L. Ikenberry & Sundaresh Ramnath, 2002. "Underreaction to Self-Selected News Events: The Case of Stock Splits," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 489-526, March.
  13. Ottaviani, Marco & Sorensen, Peter, 2001. "Information aggregation in debate: who should speak first?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 393-421, September.
  14. Brian Knight & Nathan Schiff, 2007. "Momentum and Social Learning in Presidential Primaries," NBER Working Papers 13637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Battaglini, Marco, 2005. "Sequential voting with abstention," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 445-463, May.
  16. S. Ali & Navin Kartik, 2012. "Herding with collective preferences," Economic Theory, Springer, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 601-626, November.
  17. David Hirshleifer & Sonya Seongyeon Lim & Siew Hong Teoh, 2009. "Driven to Distraction: Extraneous Events and Underreaction to Earnings News," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2289-2325, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Trebbi, Francesco & Aghion, Philippe & Alesina, Alberto, 2008. "Electoral Rules and Minority Representation in U.S. Cities," Scholarly Articles 4551793, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Hummel, Patrick & Holden, Richard, 2014. "Optimal primaries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 64-75.
  3. Patrick Hummel & Brian Knight, 2012. "Sequential or Simultaneous Elections? A Welfare Analysis," NBER Working Papers 18076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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