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Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict

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Author Info

  • Patrick T. Brandt

    (School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas, Dallas)

  • John R. Freeman

    (Department of Political Science, University of Minnesota)

  • Philip A. Schrodt

    (Department of Political Science, The Pennsylvania State University)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    We propose a framework for forecasting and analyzing regional and international conflicts. It generates forecasts that (1) are accurate but account for uncertainty, (2) are produced in (near) real time, (3) capture actors’ simultaneous behaviors, (4) incorporate prior beliefs, and (5) generate policy contingent forecasts. We combine the CAMEO event-coding framework with Markov-switching and Bayesian vector autoregression models to meet these goals. Our example produces a series of forecasts for material conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians for 2010. Our forecast is that the level of material conflict between these belligerents will increase in 2010, compared to 2009.

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    File URL: http://cmp.sagepub.com/content/28/1/41.abstract
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Peace Science Society (International) in its journal Conflict Management and Peace Science.

    Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 1 (February)
    Pages: 41-64

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    Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:41-64

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://pss.la.psu.edu/

    Related research

    Keywords: endogeneity; forecasting; Levant; Markov-switching; vector autoregression;

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    Cited by:
    1. André De Palma & Federico Perali & Nathalie Picard & Roberto Ricciuti & Alexandrina Ioana Scorbureanu, 2013. "Social Crisis Prevention: A Political Alert Index for the Israel-Palestine Conflict," Working Papers 08/2013, University of Verona, Department of Economics.

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