Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict
AbstractWe propose a framework for forecasting and analyzing regional and international conflicts. It generates forecasts that (1) are accurate but account for uncertainty, (2) are produced in (near) real time, (3) capture actors' simultaneous behaviors, (4) incorporate prior beliefs, and (5) generate policy contingent forecasts. We combine the CAMEO event-coding framework with Markov-switching and Bayesian vector autoregression models to meet these goals. Our example produces a series of forecasts for material conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians for 2010. Our forecast is that the level of material conflict between these belligerents will increase in 2010, compared to 2009.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Peace Science Society (International) in its journal Conflict Management & Peace Science.
Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
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Web page: http://pss.la.psu.edu/
endogeneity; forecasting; Levant; Markov-switching; vector autoregression;
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- De Palma André & Perali Federico & Ricciuti Roberto & Scorbureanu Alexandrina & Picard Nathalie, 2013.
"Social Crisis Prevention: A Political Alert Index for the Israel-Palestine Conflict,"
Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy,
De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 103-122, August.
- André De Palma, & Federico Perali & Nathalie Picard & Roberto Ricciuti & Alexandrina Scorbureanu, 2013. "Social Crisis Prevention: A Political Alert Index for the Israel-Palestine Conflict," THEMA Working Papers 2013-26, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- André De Palma & Federico Perali & Nathalie Picard & Roberto Ricciuti & Alexandrina Ioana Scorbureanu, 2013. "Social Crisis Prevention: A Political Alert Index for the Israel-Palestine Conflict," Working Papers 08/2013, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
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