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Social Crisis Prevention: A Political Alert Index for the Israel-Palestine Conflict

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Author Info

  • André De Palma

    ()
    (Département d'Économie et de Gestion, École Normale Supérieure Cachan)

  • Federico Perali

    ()
    (Department of Economics (University of Verona))

  • Nathalie Picard

    ()
    (Théorie Économique, Modélisation, Application (THEMA), Université de Cergy-Pontoise)

  • Roberto Ricciuti

    ()
    (Department of Economics (University of Verona))

  • Alexandrina Ioana Scorbureanu

    ()
    (Department of Economics (University of Verona))

Abstract

This study presents a novel approach to crisis prevention based on data on premonitory political and religious events and the international media coverage of publicly sensitive circumstances. We implement our method to the Israel-Palestine conflict. First we identify two main political scenarios associated with “good” and “bad” political times of low or high levels of political unrest using a hierarchical clustering technique. Then we construct a political alert index to predict the probability of occurrence of good and bad times. Bad times are positively and significantly associated with the number of Israeli victims at the checkpoints, the number of homeless or injured Palestinians and with the number of demolitions. The number of Palestinian prisoners and injured Israelis negatively affect the probability of occurrence of a bad time. Media coverage is positively and significantly associated with the transition to bad times. Our results show that our statistical tool can be a reliable method for early warning of social crisis and can be effectively replicated to other social crisis situations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Verona, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 08/2013.

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Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ver:wpaper:08/2013

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Keywords: Crisis prevention; alert index; news; Israel; Palestine;

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  1. Edward A. Sayre, 2005. "Labor Market Conditions, Political Events and Palestinian Suicide Bombings," Labor and Demography 0504007, EconWPA.
  2. Patrick T. Brandt & John R. Freeman & Philip A. Schrodt, 2011. "Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(1), pages 41-64, February.
  3. Koch Michael & Tkach Benjamin, 2012. "Deterring or Mobilizing? The Influence of Government Partisanship and Force on the Frequency, Lethality and Suicide Attacks of Terror Events," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-29, August.
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