Social Crisis Prevention: A Political Alert Index for the Israel-Palestine Conflict
AbstractThis study presents a novel approach to crisis prevention based on data on premonitory political and religious events and the international media coverage of publicly sensitive circumstances. We implement our method to the Israel-Palestine conflict. First we identify two main political scenarios associated with “good” and “bad” political times of low or high levels of political unrest using a hierarchical clustering technique. Then we construct a political alert index to predict the probability of occurrence of good and bad times. Bad times are positively and significantly associated with the number of Israeli victims at the checkpoints, the number of homeless or injured Palestinians and with the number of demolitions. The number of Palestinian prisoners and injured Israelis negatively affect the probability of occurrence of a bad time. Media coverage is positively and significantly associated with the transition to bad times. Our results show that our statistical tool can be a reliable method for early warning of social crisis and can be effectively replicated to other social crisis situations.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Verona, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 08/2013.
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
Crisis prevention; alert index; news; Israel; Palestine;
Other versions of this item:
- De Palma André & Perali Federico & Ricciuti Roberto & Scorbureanu Alexandrina & Picard Nathalie, 2013. "Social Crisis Prevention: A Political Alert Index for the Israel-Palestine Conflict," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 103-122, August.
- André De Palma, & Federico Perali & Nathalie Picard & Roberto Ricciuti & Alexandrina Scorbureanu, 2013. "Social Crisis Prevention: A Political Alert Index for the Israel-Palestine Conflict," THEMA Working Papers 2013-26, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
- F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
- P48 - Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Political Economy; Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-06-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2013-06-04 (MENA - Middle East & North Africa)
- NEP-POL-2013-06-04 (Positive Political Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Edward A. Sayre, 2005.
"Labor Market Conditions, Political Events and Palestinian Suicide Bombings,"
Labor and Demography
- Sayre Edward A, 2009. "Labor Market Conditions, Political Events, and Palestinian Suicide Bombings," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-28, May.
- Patrick T. Brandt & John R. Freeman & Philip A. Schrodt, 2011. "Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(1), pages 41-64, February.
- Koch Michael & Tkach Benjamin, 2012. "Deterring or Mobilizing? The Influence of Government Partisanship and Force on the Frequency, Lethality and Suicide Attacks of Terror Events," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-29, August.
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