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Social Crisis Prevention: A Political Alert Index for the Israel-Palestine Conflict

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  • André De Palma,
  • Federico Perali
  • Nathalie Picard
  • Roberto Ricciuti
  • Alexandrina Scorbureanu

    ()
    (Ecole Normale Supérieure de Cachan
    University of Verona and CHILD
    Universite de Cergy-Pontoise
    University of Verona and CESifo)

Abstract

This study presents a novel approach to crisis prevention based on data on premonitory political and religious events and the international media coverage of publicly sensitive circumstances. We implement our method to the Israel-Palestine conflict. First we identify two main political scenarios associated with "good" and "bad" political times of low or high levels of political unrest using a hierarchical clustering technique. Then we construct a political alert index to predict the probability of occurrence of good and bad times. Bad times are positively and significantly associated with the number of Israeli victims at the checkpoints, the number of homeless or injured Palestinians and with the number of demolitions. The number of Palestinian prisoners and injured Israelis negatively affect the probability of occurrence of a bad time. Media coverage is positively and significantly associated with the transition to bad times. Our results show that our statistical tool can be a reliable method for early warning of social crisis and can be effectively replicated to other social crisis situations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise in its series THEMA Working Papers with number 2013-26.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2013-26

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Keywords: crisis prevention; alert index; news; Israel; Palestine;

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  1. Patrick T. Brandt & John R. Freeman & Philip A. Schrodt, 2011. "Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(1), pages 41-64, February.
  2. Sayre Edward A, 2009. "Labor Market Conditions, Political Events, and Palestinian Suicide Bombings," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-28, May.
  3. Koch Michael & Tkach Benjamin, 2012. "Deterring or Mobilizing? The Influence of Government Partisanship and Force on the Frequency, Lethality and Suicide Attacks of Terror Events," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-29, August.
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