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Group-based forecasting?: A social psychological analysis

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  • Kerr, Norbert L.
  • Tindale, R. Scott
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    Abstract

    The potential of group (vs. individual) forecasting is analyzed from the perspective of the social psychology of groups. The social decision scheme theory (SDST) is summarized, and several simulations are presented to demonstrate the dependence of group aggregation accuracy upon factors such as group size, the accuracy and distribution of individual forecasts, and shared representations of the forecasting problem. Many advantages and disadvantages of group aggregation are identified and related to four generic methods of group aggregation (statistical aggregation, prediction markets, the Delphi method, and face-to-face discussion). A number of aspects of forecasting problems are identified which should govern whether or not group forecasting can be relied upon, and if so, what aggregation method should be used.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 27 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 14-40

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y::i:1:p:14-40

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

    Related research

    Keywords: Delphi Prediction markets Aggregation Face-to-face groups Social decision schemes;

    References

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    1. Stasser, Garold, 1999. "A Primer of Social Decision Scheme Theory: Models of Group Influence, Competitive Model-Testing, and Prospective Modeling," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 3-20, October.
    2. Laughlin, Patrick R. & Hollingshead, Andrea B., 1995. "A Theory of Collective Induction," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 94-107, January.
    3. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Discussion Papers 03-025, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Sniezek, Janet A., 1992. "Groups under uncertainty: An examination of confidence in group decision making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 124-155, June.
    5. Kesten Green & J. Scott Armstrong & Andreas Graefe, 2007. "Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 8, pages 17-20, Fall.
    6. Crott, Helmut W. & Szilvas, Klaus & Zuber, Johannes A., 1991. "Group decision, choice shift, and polarization in consulting, political, and local political scenarios: An experimental investigation and theoretical analysis," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 22-41, June.
    7. Tindale, R. Scott, 1989. "Group vs individual information processing: The effects of outcome feedback on decision making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 454-473, December.
    8. Laughlin, Patrick R., 1999. "Collective Induction: Twelve Postulates," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 50-69, October.
    9. Hinsz, Verlin B., 1999. "Group Decision Making with Responses of a Quantitative Nature: The Theory of Social Decision Schemes for Quantities, , , , , , , , , ," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 28-49, October.
    10. Fischer, Ilan & Harvey, Nigel, 1999. "Combining forecasts: What information do judges need to outperform the simple average?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 227-246, July.
    11. Rowe, Gene & Wright, George, 1999. "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 353-375, October.
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    13. Kerr, Norbert L., 1992. "Group decision making at a multialternative task: Extremity, interfaction distance, pluralities, and issue importance," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 64-95, June.
    14. Sniezek, Janet A. & Henry, Rebecca A., 1989. "Accuracy and confidence in group judgment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-28, February.
    15. repec:reg:rpubli:259 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ono, Kaoru & Davis, James H., 1988. "Individual judgment and group interaction: A variable perspective approach," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 211-232, April.
    17. Stahlberg, Dagmar & Eller, Frank & Maass, Anne & Frey, Dieter, 1995. "We Knew It All Along: Hindsight Bias in Groups," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 46-58, July.
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    Cited by:
    1. Kauko, Karlo & Palmroos, Peter, 2014. "The Delphi method in forecasting financial markets— An experimental study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 313-327.
    2. Agrawal, Rashmi & Nanda, S.K., 2013. "Integrated Approach to Human Resource Forecasting: An Exercise in Agricultural Sector," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 26(2).
    3. Wright, George & Rowe, Gene, 2011. "Group-based judgmental forecasting: An integration of extant knowledge and the development of priorities for a new research agenda," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-13, January.

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