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Implementation Of The Delphi Technique In Finance

Author

Listed:
  • Marcin Kozak

    (Department of Quantitative Methods in Economics, University of Information Technology and Management in Rzeszów)

  • Olesia Iefremova

    (Department of Social Sciences, University of Information Technology and Management in Rzeszów)

Abstract

In the rapidly developing world, forecasting is very important for numerous aspects of our lives,the finance realm not being an exception. Various qualitative and quantitative methods are used to predict what is ahead. One of them is the Delphi method, an anonymous, structured discussion among experts on the forecasted topic. Developed over 60 years ago, it is one of the most effective qualitative forecasting and decision-making techniques. That said, literature review suggests Delphi’s advantages have not been sufficiently utilized in financial research. This paper is an introduction to Delphi with a focus on the method’s application possibilities in finance and related disciplines. For this purpose, we performed a literature review and presented a step-by-step guide for implementing the Delphi technique, describing a structure of the Delphi process, major principles of Delphi, experts’ selection, Delphi types, ways of establishing consensus, validity of the method among others. Finally, we focused on implementing Delphi in finance and offered example topics that could be studied with Delphi.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcin Kozak & Olesia Iefremova, 2014. "Implementation Of The Delphi Technique In Finance," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, vol. 10(4), pages 36-45, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:rze:efinan:v:10:y:2014:i:4:p:36-45
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Delphi method; financial forecasting; structured discussion Least Squares Method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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