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Abstract

Prediction markets are low volume speculative markets whose prices offer informative forecasts on particular policy topics. Observers worry that traders may attempt to mislead decision makers by manipulating prices. We adapt a Kyle-style market microstructure model to this case, adding a manipulator with an additional quadratic preference regarding the price. In this model, when other traders are uncertain about the manipulator's target price, the mean target price has no effect on prices, and raising the variance of the target price can "increase" average price accuracy, by boosting the returns to informed trading and thereby incentives for traders to become informed. Copyright (c) The London School of Economics and Political Science 2008.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0335.2008.00734.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by London School of Economics and Political Science in its journal Economica.

Volume (Year): 76 (2009)
Issue (Month): 302 (04)
Pages: 304-314

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Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:76:y:2009:i:302:p:304-314

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Cited by:

1. Helena Veiga & Marc Vorsatz, 2010. "Information aggregation in experimental asset markets in the presence of a manipulator," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 379-398, December.
2. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," IZA Discussion Papers 6720, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
   
   • Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," CESifo Working Paper Series 3884, CESifo Group Munich.
   • Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 18222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   • Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," CAMA Working Papers 2012-33, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
   • Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 9059, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
3. Veiga, Helena & Vorsatz, Marc, 2009. "Price manipulation in an experimental asset market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 327-342, April.
   
   • Veiga, Helena & Vorsatz, Marc, 2006. "Price Manipulation in an Experimental Asset Market," Research Memoranda 024, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization.

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