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Manipulation in political stock markets - preconditions and evidence

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  • Jan Hansen
  • Carsten Schmidt
  • Martin Strobel

Abstract

Political stock markets (PSM) are sometimes seen as substitutes for opinion polls. On the bases of a behavioural model, specific preconditions were drawn out under which manipulation in PSM can weaken this argument. Evidence for manipulation is reported from the data of two separate PSM during the Berlin 1999 state elections.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Field Experiments Website in its series Natural Field Experiments with number 00265.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:feb:natura:00265

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References

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  1. Berlemann, Michael & Schmidt, Carsten, 2001. "Predictive accuracy of political stock markets: Empirical evidence from a European perspective," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,57, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  2. Forsythe, Robert & Forrest Nelson & George R. Neumann & Jack Wright, 1992. "Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1142-61, December.
  3. Forsythe, Robert & Rietz, Thomas A. & Ross, Thomas W., 1999. "Wishes, expectations and actions: a survey on price formation in election stock markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 83-110, May.
  4. Bohm, Peter & Sonnegard, Joakim, 1999. " Political Stock Markets and Unreliable Polls," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(2), pages 205-22, June.
  5. Potters, J.J.M. & Jacobsen, B. & Schram, A. & Winden, F.A.A.M. van & Wit, J., 2000. "(In)accuracy of a European political stockmarket: The influence of common value structures," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-86743, Tilburg University.
  6. repec:wop:humbsf:2001-57 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
  1. Helena Veiga & Marc Vorsatz, 2008. "Aggregation and Dissemination of Information in Experimental Asset Markets in the Presence of a Manipulator," Working Papers 2008-29, FEDEA.
  2. Robin Hanson, 2006. "Designing real terrorism futures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 257-274, July.
  3. Cary Deck & David Porter, 2013. "Prediction Markets in the Laboratory," Working Papers 13-05, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  4. RYan Oprea & David Porter & Chris Hibbert & Robin Hanson & Dorina Tila, 2008. "Can Manipulators Mislead Prediction Market Observers?," Working Papers 08-01, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  5. Jens Grossklags & Carsten Schmidt, 2002. "Artificial Software Agents on Thin Double Auction Markets - A Human Trader Experiment," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2002-45, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
  6. Paul Rhode & Koleman Strumpf, 2006. "Manipulating political stock markets: A field experiment and a century of observational data," Natural Field Experiments 00325, The Field Experiments Website.
  7. Junjie Wang & Shuigeng Zhou & Jihong Guan, 2011. "Detecting Collusive Cliques in Futures Markets Based on Trading Behaviors from Real Data," Papers 1110.1522, arXiv.org.
  8. Dorina Tila & David Porter, 2008. "Group Prediction in Information Markets With and Without Trading Information and Price Manipulation Incentives," Working Papers 08-06, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.

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