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How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? The Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment

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Author Info
Carsten Schmidt ()
Axel Werwatz ()

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Abstract

For the Euro 2000 Soccer Championships an experimental asset market was conducted, with traders buying and selling contracts on the winners of individual matches. Market-generated probabilities are compared to professional bet quotas, and factors that are responsible for the quality of the market prognosis are identified. The comparison shows, that the market is more accurate than the random predictor and slightly better than professional bet quotas, in the sense of mean square error. Moreover, the more certain the market predicts the outcome of an event the more accurate is the prediction.

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Paper provided by Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group in its series Papers on Strategic Interaction with number 2002-09.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2002
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Handle: RePEc:esi:discus:2002-09

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Related research
Keywords: experimental asset markets; prognosis; market efficiency;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
D4 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. M. Berlemann & C. Schmidt, . "Predictive Accuracy of Political Stock Markets - Empirical Evidence from a European Perspective," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2001-57, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  2. Forsythe, Robert & Forrest Nelson & George R. Neumann & Jack Wright, 1992. "Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1142-61, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Gandar, John, et al, 1988. " Testing Rationality in the Point Spread Betting Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 995-1008, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. John M. Gandar & William H. Dare & Craig R. Brown & Richard A. Zuber, 1998. "Informed Traders and Price Variations in the Betting Market for Professional Basketball Games," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 385-401, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Forsythe, Robert & Rietz, Thomas A. & Ross, Thomas W., 1999. "Wishes, expectations and actions: a survey on price formation in election stock markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 83-110, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Forsythe, Robert & Lundholm, Russell, 1990. "Information Aggregation in an Experimental Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 309-47, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Gray, Philip K & Gray, Stephen F, 1997. " Testing Market Efficiency: Evidence from the NFL Sports Betting Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1725-37, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jens Grossklags & Carsten Schmidt, 2002. "Artificial Software Agents on Thin Double Auction Markets - A Human Trader Experiment," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2002-45, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group. [Downloadable!]
  2. Schmidt, Carsten & Strobel, Martin & Volkland, Henning Oskar, 2008. "Accuracy, Certainty and Surprise - A Prediction Market on the Outcome of the 2002 FIFA World Cup," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 08-13, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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