Predicting box office with and without markets: Do internet users know anything?
AbstractThis study investigates and compares predictions of opening weekend box office revenue from an online prediction game, the Derby, and an online prediction market, the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX), using a sample of 141 films released in 2007. Overall, both mechanisms provide accurate predictions of box office outcomes but tend to over-predict small-earning films and under-predict large-earning films. This bias is present across a number of sub-samples disaggregated by film-specific variables. The bias is consistently greater in the Derby game, suggesting that the market mechanism is superior to the non-market mechanism. There is also evidence that larger budget films, sequels and films featuring stars are predicted more accurately in both settings, and that individual-level predictions improve as films spend more time at the box office and as players gain experience.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Information Economics and Policy.
Volume (Year): 25 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505549
Motion pictures; Prediction mechanisms; Prediction markets; Information aggregation; Forecasting;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
- D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
- L8 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- repec:reg:rpubli:259 is not listed on IDEAS
- Martin Spann & Bernd Skiera, 2003. "Internet-Based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(10), pages 1310-1326, October.
- Jordi McKenzie, 2012. "The Economics Of Movies: A Literature Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 42-70, 02.
- W. D. Walls, 2005. "Modelling heavy tails and skewness in film returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(17), pages 1181-1188.
- repec:reg:wpaper:259 is not listed on IDEAS
- De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 2004. "Motion picture profit, the stable Paretian hypothesis, and the curse of the superstar," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1035-1057, March.
- Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2004.
1854, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- Jehoshua Eliashberg & Anita Elberse & Mark A.A.M. Leenders, 2006. "The Motion Picture Industry: Critical Issues in Practice, Current Research, and New Research Directions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(6), pages 638-661, 11-12.
- Arthur De Vany & W. Walls, 1999. "Uncertainty in the Movie Industry: Does Star Power Reduce the Terror of the Box Office?," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 285-318, November.
- De Vany, Arthur & Walls, W David, 1996. "Bose-Einstein Dynamics and Adaptive Contracting in the Motion Picture Industry," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(439), pages 1493-1514, November.
- Charles R. Plott & Jorgen Wit & Winston C. Yang, 2003.
"Parimutuel betting markets as information aggregation devices: experimental results,"
Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 311-351, 09.
- Plott, Charles R. & Wit, J. & Yang, W. C., 1997. "Parimutuel Betting Markets as Information Aggregation Devises: Experimental Results," Working Papers 986, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- W. Walls, 2005.
"Modeling Movie Success When ‘Nobody Knows Anything’: Conditional Stable-Distribution Analysis Of Film Returns,"
Journal of Cultural Economics,
Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 177-190, August.
- W David Walls, 2004. "Modeling movie success when "nobody knows anything": Conditional stable distribution analysis of film returns," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 409, Econometric Society.
- Anita Elberse & Jehoshua Eliashberg, 2003. "Demand and Supply Dynamics for Sequentially Released Products in International Markets: The Case of Motion Pictures," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(3), pages 329-354.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.