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Modeling Movie Success When ‘Nobody Knows Anything’: Conditional Stable-Distribution Analysis Of Film Returns

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W. Walls ()

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Abstract

In this paper we apply a recently-developed statistical model that explicitly accounts for the extreme uncertainty surrounding film returns. The conditional distribution of box-office returns is analyzed using the stable distribution regression model. The regression coefficients in this model represent what is known about the correlates of film success while at the same time permitting the variance of film success at the box office to be infinite. The empirical analysis shows that the conditional distribution of film returns has infinite variance, and this invalidates statistical inferences from the often-applied least-squares regression model. The estimates of the stable regression confirm some earlier results on the statistics of the movie business and the analysis demonstrates how to model box-office success in the movie business where “nobody knows anything”. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10824-005-1156-5
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Cultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 29 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 177-190
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Handle: RePEc:kap:jculte:v:29:y:2005:i:3:p:177-190

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100284

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Related research
Keywords: motion picture success; Pareto-Lévy stable distribution; nobody knows principle;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Halvorsen, Robert & Palmquist, Raymond, 1980. "The Interpretation of Dummy Variables in Semilogarithmic Equations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 474-75, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Chris Hand, 2002. "The Distribution and Predictability of Cinema Admissions," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 53-64, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 2004. "Motion picture profit, the stable Paretian hypothesis, and the curse of the superstar," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1035-1057, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394. [Downloadable!]
  5. Steven Albert, 1998. "Movie Stars and the Distribution of Financially Successful Films in the Motion Picture Industry," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 249-270, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Smith, Sharon P & Smith, V Kerry, 1986. "Successful Movies: A Preliminary Empirical Analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(5), pages 501-07, May.
  7. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "New Methods in Statistical Economics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 421. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Blattberg, Robert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1971. "Regression with Non-Gaussian Stable Disturbances: Some Sampling Results," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(3), pages 501-10, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Arthur De Vany & W. Walls, 1999. "Uncertainty in the Movie Industry: Does Star Power Reduce the Terror of the Box Office?," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 285-318, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. De Vany, Arthur & Walls, W David, 1996. "Bose-Einstein Dynamics and Adaptive Contracting in the Motion Picture Industry," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(439), pages 1493-1514, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. De Vany, A. & Walls, W.D., 2000. "Does Hollywood make too many R-Rated Movies? Risk, Stochastic Dominance, and the Illusion of Expectation," Papers 99-00-24, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
  12. Eugene F. Fama, 1963. "Mandelbrot and the Stable Paretian Hypothesis," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 420. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Arthur Vany & W. Walls, 2007. "Estimating the Effects of Movie Piracy on Box-office Revenue," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 291-301, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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