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Predictive Markets: Ein vielversprechender Weg zur Verbesserung der Prognosequalität im Unternehmen?

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  • Riekhof, Hans-Christian
  • Riekhof, Marie-Catherine
  • Brinkhoff, Stefan
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    Abstract

    Die möglichst präzise und vor allem zutreffende Vorhersage unsicherer zukünftiger Ereignisse ist eine permanente Herausforderung für Unternehmen. Prognosemärkte adressieren diese Aufgabe, indem sie relevante Informationen aufdecken, bewerten und aggregieren. Mit diesem Bericht leisten wir einen Beitrag zur Bewertung der Leistungsfähigkeit von Prognosemärkten und tragen zusammen, wo potentielle Schwierigkeiten liegen und inwiefern dafür bereits Lösungsansätze vorhanden sind. Es hat sich gezeigt, dass ein webbasiertes System mit einem virtuellen Aktienmarkt über den Preismechanismus effizient individuelle Urteile aggregieren kann und sich durch vergleichsweise niedrige Transaktionskosten und hohe Skalierbarkeit in Bezug auf die Anzahl möglicher Teilnehmer auszeichnet. Die operative Implementierung kann durch internes Marketing bereits vor dem Launch, durch die richtige Sprache, durch eine kontinuierliche Kontrolle des Anreizsystems und durch eine klare Unterstützung vom Topmanagement unterstützt werden. Erfahrungen der Wirtschaft zeigen die bisher noch schwierige Realisierung langfristiger Prognosen über Predictive Markets, da das hierfür optimale Anreizschema noch nicht ausreichend erforscht ist. Außerdem sind weitere empirische Untersuchungen notwendig, um bessere Aussagen über den Umgang mit spekulativen Blasen, über die ideale Anzahl von parallel handelbaren Aktien und über die Kalibrierung des Prognosehorizonts treffen zu können. --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen in its series PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers with number 2012/07.

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    Date of creation: 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:pfhrps:201207

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    References

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    1. Plott, Charles R. & Sunder, Shyam., . "Efficiency of Experimental Security Markets with Insider Information: An Application of Rational Expectations Models," Working Papers, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences 331, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
    2. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Research Papers 1854, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    3. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Schäfers, Tobias & Eiben, Immo, 2009. "Behavioral Targeting: Ein effizienter Einsatz des Online-Werbebudgets?," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2009/06, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
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    6. Pomfret, Richard, 2008. "Turkmenistan after Turkmenbashi," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2008/03, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    7. Adam Siegel, 2009. "Inkling: One Prediction Market Platform Provider's Experience," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(1), pages 65-85, April.
    8. Robin Hanson, 2009. "On Market Maker Functions," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(1), pages 61-63, April.
    9. David Rajakovich & Vladimir Vladimirov, 2009. "Prediction Markets as a Medical Forecasting Tool: Demand for Hospital Services," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(2), pages 78-106, August.
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    12. Robin Hanson, 2007. "Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, February.
    13. Paul Rhode & Koleman Strumpf, 2006. "Manipulating political stock markets: A field experiment and a century of observational data," Natural Field Experiments 00325, The Field Experiments Website.
    14. Kenneth Oliven & Thomas A. Rietz, 2004. "Suckers Are Born but Markets Are Made: Individual Rationality, Arbitrage, and Market Efficiency on an Electronic Futures Market," Management Science, INFORMS, INFORMS, vol. 50(3), pages 336-351, March.
    15. Gerrit Kamp & Peter Koen, 2009. "Improving the Idea Screening Process within Organizations using Prediction Markets: A Theoretical Perspective," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(2), pages 39-64, August.
    16. Paul W. Rhode & Koleman S. Strumpf, 2004. "Historical Presidential Betting Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 127-141, Spring.
    17. Brian Spears & Christina LaComb & John Interrante & Janet Barnett & Deniz Senturk-Dogonaksoy, 2009. "Examining Trader Behavior in Idea Markets: An Implementation of GE's Imagination Markets," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(1), pages 17-39, April.
    18. Georgios Tziralis & Ilias Tatsiopoulos, 2007. "Prediction Markets: An Extended Literature Review," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(1), pages 75-91, February.
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