Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Citations for "Prediction Markets"

by Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz

For a complete description of this item, click here. For a RSS feed for citations of this item, click here.
as in new window
  1. Gikas Hardouvelis & Dimitrios Thomakos, 2007. "Consumer Confidence and Elections," Working Papers, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics 0003, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics.
  2. Hanson, Robin & Oprea, Ryan & Porter, David, 2006. "Information aggregation and manipulation in an experimental market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 449-459, August.
  3. Coleman, S., 2010. "Russian Election Reform and the Effect of Social Conformity on Voting and the Party System: 2007 and 2008," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 5, pages 73-90.
  4. Brian Knight & Nathan Schiff, 2010. "Momentum and Social Learning in Presidential Primaries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(6), pages 1110 - 1150.
  5. Sjöberg, Lennart, 2006. "Are all crowds equally wise? A comparison of political election forecasts by experts and the public," Working Paper Series in Business Administration, Stockholm School of Economics 2006:9, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 04 Oct 2006.
  6. Oechssler, Jörg & Schmidt, Carsten & Schnedler, Wendelin, 2007. "Asset Bubbles without Dividends - An Experiment," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim 07-01, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  7. Angela Dalton & Alan Brothers & Stephen Walsh & Paul Whitney, 2010. "Expert Elicitation Method Selection Process and Method Comparison," Labsi Experimental Economics Laboratory University of Siena, University of Siena 030, University of Siena.
  8. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Riekhof, Marie-Catherine & Brinkhoff, Stefan, 2012. "Predictive Markets: Ein vielversprechender Weg zur Verbesserung der Prognosequalität im Unternehmen?," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2012/07, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
  9. Bryan Caplan, 2007. "Clifford Winston, Government Failure versus Market Failure," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 325-328, December.
  10. David S. Lee & Enrico Moretti, 2009. "Bayesian Learning and the Pricing of New Information: Evidence from Prediction Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 330-36, May.
  11. repec:reg:wpaper:267 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. van Bruggen, G.H. & Spann, M. & Lilien, G.L. & Skiera, B., 2006. "Institutional Forecasting: The Performance of Thin Virtual Stock Markets," ERIM Report Series Research in Management, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasm ERS-2006-028-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  13. Helena Veiga & Marc Vorsatz, 2008. "Aggregation and dissemination of information in experimental asset markets in the presence of a manipulator," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría ws084110, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  14. Philip Bond & Alex Edmans & Itay Goldstein, 2012. "The Real Effects of Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 339-360, October.
  15. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 1975, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  16. repec:reg:wpaper:402 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Jinli Hu, 2012. "Combinatorial Modelling and Learning with Prediction Markets," Papers 1201.3851, arXiv.org.
  18. Urs W. Birchler & Matteo Facchinetti, 2007. "Can Bank Supervisors Rely on Market Data? A Critical Assessment from a Swiss Perspective," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 143(II), pages 95-132, June.
  19. Karen Croxson & J. James Reade, 2014. "Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 62-91, 03.
  20. Gustavo Crespi & Chiara Criscuolo & Jonathan E. Haskel & Matthew Slaughter, 2007. "Productivity growth, knowledge flows and spillovers," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library 19735, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  21. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," Research Papers, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business 1927, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  22. Shawn Cole & Xavier Giné & Jeremy Tobacman & Petia Topalova & Robert Townsend & James Vickery, 2009. "Barriers to household risk management: evidence from India," Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 373, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  23. Hans Gersbach & Markus Müller, 2006. "Elections, Contracts and Markets," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 06/56, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
  24. Kelly, David L. & Letson, David & Nelson, Forrest & Nolan, David S. & Solís, Daniel, 2012. "Evolution of subjective hurricane risk perceptions: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 644-663.
  25. Elberse, Anita & Anand, Bharat, 2007. "The effectiveness of pre-release advertising for motion pictures: An empirical investigation using a simulated market," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 319-343, October.
  26. Jean-François Laslier & Karine Straeten, 2008. "A live experiment on approval voting," Experimental Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 97-105, March.
  27. McKenzie, Jordi, 2013. "Predicting box office with and without markets: Do internet users know anything?," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 70-80.
  28. David Card & Gordon B. Dahl, 2011. "Family Violence and Football: The Effect of Unexpected Emotional Cues on Violent Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 103-143.
  29. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko, 2007. "Do Political Parties Matter? Evidence from U.S. Cities," NBER Working Papers 13535, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Tideman, T. Nicolaus & Plassmann, Florenz, 2010. "Pricing externalities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 176-184, June.
  31. Rajkamal Iyer & Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Erzo F.P. Luttmer & Kelly Shue, 2009. "Screening Peers Softly: Inferring the Quality of Small Borrowers," NBER Working Papers 15242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Kitsul, Yuriy & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "The economics of options-implied inflation probability density functions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 696-711.
  33. Kathy Yuan & Emre Ozdenoren & Itay Goldstein, 2008. "Learning and Complementarities: Implications for Speculative Attacks," 2008 Meeting Papers 276, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  34. Quoc-Anh Do & Yen-Teik Lee & Bang Dang Nguyen & Kieu-Trang Nguyen, 2012. "Out of Sight, Out of Mind: The Value of Political Connections in Social Networks," Working Papers, Singapore Management University, School of Economics 22-2012, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  35. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Justin Wolfers, 2005. "Macroeconomic derivatives: an initial analysis of market-based macro forecasts, uncertainty, and risk," Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2005-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  36. Ledyard, John & Hanson, Robin & Ishikida, Takashi, 2009. "An experimental test of combinatorial information markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 182-189, February.
  37. Franck, Egon & Verbeek, Erwin & Nüesch, Stephan, 2010. "Prediction accuracy of different market structures -- bookmakers versus a betting exchange," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 448-459, July.
  38. Manski, Charles F., 2006. "Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 425-429, June.
  39. repec:reg:wpaper:431 is not listed on IDEAS
  40. Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  41. Fabio Milani, 2010. "Public option and private profits," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 155-165, May.
  42. Smith, Michael A. & Paton, David & Williams, Leighton Vaughan, 2009. "Do bookmakers possess superior skills to bettors in predicting outcomes?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 539-549, August.
  43. Robert W. Hahn & Paul C. Tetlock, 2008. "Has Economic Analysis Improved Regulatory Decisions?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 67-84, Winter.
  44. Wolk, Leonard & Peeters, Ronald, 2009. "The role of monetary incentives in prediction markets: a time series approach," Research Memorandum 013, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  45. Roth, Alvin, 2007. "Repugnance as a Constraint on Markets," Scholarly Articles 2624677, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  46. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 5676, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  47. repec:reg:wpaper:67 is not listed on IDEAS
  48. Shipra Agrawal & Erick Delage & Mark Peters & Zizhuo Wang & Yinyu Ye, 2009. "A Unified Framework for Dynamic Pari-Mutuel Information Market Design," Papers 0902.2429, arXiv.org.
  49. Amos Storkey, 2011. "Machine Learning Markets," Papers 1106.4509, arXiv.org.
  50. Petr Jakubík & Tomáš Slacík, 2013. "Measuring Financial (In)Stability in Emerging Europe: A New Index-Based Approach," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 25, pages 102-117.
  51. Douglas D. Davis & Korenok Oleg & Edward S. Prescott, 2011. "An Experimental Analysis of Contingent Capital with Market-Price Triggers," Working Papers, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics 1102, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2013.
  52. Avery, Christopher & Chevalier, Judith & Zeckhauser, Richard J., 2011. "The "CAPS" Prediction System and Stock Market Returns," Working Paper Series, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government rwp11-028, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  53. Tongkui Yu & Shu-Heng Chen, 2011. "Agent-Based Modeling of the Prediction Markets," ASSRU Discussion Papers, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit 1119, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.
  54. Grant, Andrew & Johnstone, David, 2010. "Finding profitable forecast combinations using probability scoring rules," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 498-510, July.
  55. Sebastian Goers & Alexander Wagner & Jürgen Wegmayr, 2010. "New and old market-based instruments for climate change policy," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 12(1), pages 1-30, June.
  56. André Betzer & Markus Doumet & Ulf Rinne, 2013. "How policy changes affect shareholder wealth: the case of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear disaster," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(8), pages 799-803, May.
  57. repec:reg:wpaper:159 is not listed on IDEAS
  58. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Research Papers, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business 1854, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  59. Raphael Flepp & Stephan Nüesch & Egon Franck, 2013. " Liquidity, Market Efficiency and the Influence of Noise Traders: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Betting Industry," Working Papers 341, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  60. Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2011. "Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 183-195.
  61. Kurt Nielsen & Jesper Troelsgaard Nielsen, 2010. "An Allocatively Efficient Auction Market for Payment Entitlements?," MSAP Working Paper Series 03_2010, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
  62. Nikolaos Vlastakis & George Dotsis & Raphael N. Markellos, 2009. "How efficient is the European football betting market? Evidence from arbitrage and trading strategies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 426-444.
  63. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2011. "How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies," IZA Discussion Papers 5640, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  64. Chezum, Brian & Stowe, C. Jill, 2010. "Some Evidence of Information Aggregation in Auction Prices," 2011 Annual Meeting, February 5-8, 2011, Corpus Christi, Texas, Southern Agricultural Economics Association 98528, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  65. Gersbach, Hans & Ponta, Oriana, 2013. "Unraveling Short- and Farsightedness in Politics," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 9314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  66. Hans Gersbach & Markus Müller, 2011. "Information Markets, Elections and Contracts," CESifo Working Paper Series 3327, CESifo Group Munich.
  67. Ivo Blohm & Christoph Riedl & Johann F\"uller & Orhan K\"oroglu & Jan Marco Leimeister & Helmut Krcmar, 2012. "The Effects of Prediction Market Design and Price Elasticity on Trading Performance of Users: An Experimental Analysis," Papers 1204.3457, arXiv.org.
  68. Bennouri, Moez & Gimpel, Henner & Robert, Jacques, 2011. "Measuring the impact of information aggregation mechanisms: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 302-318, May.
  69. Kerr, Norbert L. & Tindale, R. Scott, 2011. "Group-based forecasting?: A social psychological analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 14-40, January.
  70. Jackson, Aaron L., 2010. "Policy futures markets with multiple goals," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 45-54, March.
  71. Mikuláš Gangur & Miroslav Plevný, 2014. "Tools for Consumer Rights Protection in the Prediction of Electronic Virtual Market and Technological Changes," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(36), pages 578, May.
  72. Aseem Brahma & Sanmay Das & Malik Magdon-Ismail, 2010. "Comparing Prediction Market Structures, With an Application to Market Making," Papers 1009.1446, arXiv.org.
  73. Fahr, René & Irlenbusch, Bernd, 2011. "Who follows the crowd—Groups or individuals?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 200-209.
  74. Veiga, Helena & Vorsatz, Marc, 2006. "Price Manipulation in an Experimental Asset Market," Research Memorandum 024, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  75. Helena Veiga & Marc Vorsatz, 2010. "Information aggregation in experimental asset markets in the presence of a manipulator," Experimental Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 379-398, December.
  76. Serrano-Padial, Ricardo, 2012. "Naive traders and mispricing in prediction markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 147(5), pages 1882-1912.
  77. Berg, Joyce E. & Nelson, Forrest D. & Rietz, Thomas A., 2008. "Prediction market accuracy in the long run," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 285-300.
  78. Michael Greenstone, 2007. "Is the "Surge" Working? Some New Facts," NBER Working Papers 13458, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  79. Eymann, Torsten (Ed.), 2011. "Tagungsband zum Doctoral Consortium der WI 2011," Bayreuth Reports on Information Systems Management 51, University of Bayreuth, Chair of Information Systems Management.
  80. Ray C. Fair, 2004. "Predicting Electoral College Victory Probabilities from State Probability Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University 1496, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  81. Richard Potthoff, 2013. "Simple manipulation-resistant voting systems designed to elect Condorcet candidates and suitable for large-scale public elections," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 101-122, January.
  82. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2006. "Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 583-598.
  83. Bruno Frey, 2008. "Outside and inside competition for international organizations—from analysis to innovations," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 335-350, December.
  84. Dorina Tila & David Porter, 2008. "Group Prediction in Information Markets With and Without Trading Information and Price Manipulation Incentives," Working Papers, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute 08-06, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  85. Papakonstantinou, A. & Rogers, A & Gerding, E. H. & Jennings, N. R., 2010. "Mechanism Design for the truthful elicitation of costly probabilistic estimates in Distributed Information Systems," MPRA Paper 43324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  86. Chen, Shu-Heng, 2012. "Varieties of agents in agent-based computational economics: A historical and an interdisciplinary perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-25.
  87. Robin Hanson, 2006. "Designing real terrorism futures," Public Choice, Springer, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 257-274, July.
  88. Karen Croxson & J. James Reade, 2011. "Exchange vs Dealers: A High-Frequency Analysis of In-Play Betting Prices," Discussion Papers, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham 11-19, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  89. Imai, Masami & Shelton, Cameron A., 2011. "Elections and political risk: New evidence from the 2008 Taiwanese Presidential Election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 837-849.
  90. Masami Imai & Cameron A. Shelton, 2010. "Elections and Political Risk: New Evidence from Political Prediction Markets in Taiwan," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2010-001, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
  91. T. Nicolaus Tideman & Florenz Plassmann, 2007. "A Pricing Mechanism for CO2 Emissions that Incorporates Future Revisions of Estimates of the Cost of Today?s Emissions," Working Papers e07-9, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
  92. Selb, Peter & Herrmann, Michael & Munzert, Simon & Schübel, Thomas & Shikano, Susumu, 2013. "Forecasting runoff elections using candidate evaluations from first round exit polls," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 541-547.
  93. Edoardo Gaffeo, 2013. "Using information markets in grantmaking. An assessment of the issues involved and an application to Italian banking foundations," DEM Discussion Papers 2013/08, Department of Economics and Management.
  94. J. Scott Armstrong & Kesten C. Green, 2005. "Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics 24/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  95. Meirowitz, Adam, 2005. "Deliberative Democracy or Market Democracy: Designing Institutions to Aggregate Preferences and Information," Papers, Princeton University, Research Program in Political Economy 03-28-2005, Princeton University, Research Program in Political Economy.
  96. Alan Holland, 2009. "A Prediction Market for Toxic Assets Prices," Papers 0905.4171, arXiv.org.
  97. Alasdair Brown, 2013. "Information Acquisition in Ostensibly Efficient Markets," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK. 043, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  98. RYan Oprea & David Porter & Chris Hibbert & Robin Hanson & Dorina Tila, 2008. "Can Manipulators Mislead Prediction Market Observers?," Working Papers, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute 08-01, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  99. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  100. Douglas Davis & Edward S. Prescott & Oleg Korenok, 2011. "An experimental analysis of contingent capital triggering mechanisms," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond 11-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  101. Byung-Yeon Kim & Gerard Roland, 2011. "Are the Markets Afraid of Kim Jong-Il?," KIER Working Papers 789, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  102. Abraham Othman & Tuomas Sandholm, 2013. "The Gates Hillman prediction market," Review of Economic Design, Springer, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 95-128, June.