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Duration Dependent Transitions in a Markov Model of U.S. GNP Growth

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Cited by:

  1. Zeng, Songlin & Bec, Frédérique, 2015. "Do stock returns rebound after bear markets? An empirical analysis from five OECD countries," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 50-61.
  2. Mehmet Balcilar & Reneé van Eyden & Josine Uwilingiye & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Price on South African GDP Growth: A Bayesian Markov Switching-VAR Analysis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(2), pages 319-336, June.
  3. Caraiani, Petre, 2010. "Modeling Business Cycles In The Romanian Economy Using The Markov Switching Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 130-136, March.
  4. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "Was the recent downturn in US real GDP predictable?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(28), pages 2985-3007, June.
  5. Congressional Budget Office, 2022. "A Markov-Switching Model of the Unemployment Rate: Working Paper 2022-05," Working Papers 57582, Congressional Budget Office.
  6. Massimiliano Marcellino & Oscar Jorda, "undated". "Stochastic Processes Subject to Time-Scale Transformations: An Application to High-Frequency FX Data," Working Papers 164, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  7. Chen, Lemeng & Lazrak, Skander & Wang, Yan & Welch, Robert, 2019. "Pure momentum is priced," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 75-89.
  8. Gabe de Bondt & Philip Vermeulen, 2021. "Business cycle duration dependence and foreign recessions," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 1-19, February.
  9. Jensen, Mark J. & Liu, Ming, 2006. "Do long swings in the business cycle lead to strong persistence in output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 597-611, April.
  10. Moolman, Elna, 2004. "A Markov switching regime model of the South African business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 631-646, July.
  11. Rose Cunningham & Ilan Kolet, 2007. "Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada," Staff Working Papers 07-2, Bank of Canada.
  12. Fernando H.P.S Mendes & João Frois Caldeira & Guilherme Valle Moura, 2019. "Duration-dependent Markov-switching model: an empirical study for the Brazilian business cycle," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 676-685.
  13. Shinn-Juh Lin & Jian Yang, 2003. "Examining intraday returns with buy/sell information," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 447-461.
  14. Maheu, John M. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 2000. "Volatility dynamics under duration-dependent mixing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 345-372, November.
  15. Anders Rahbek & Neil Shephard, 2001. "Autoregressive conditional root model," Economics Papers 2002-W7, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, revised 01 Feb 2002.
  16. Klaassen, F.J.G.M., 1999. "Purchasing Power Parity : Evidence from a New Test," Discussion Paper 1999-09, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  17. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2012. "Combination schemes for turning point predictions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 402-412.
  18. Penelope A. Smith & Peter M. Summers, 2005. "How well do Markov switching models describe actual business cycles? The case of synchronization," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 253-274.
  19. M. Araceli Rodríguez López, "undated". "Variables fundamentales o ataques "Self-fulfilling"? Una explicación a las crisis de credibilidad de la peseta espanola," Studies on the Spanish Economy 90, FEDEA.
  20. Dahl Christian M. & Gonzalez-Rivera Gloria, 2003. "Identifying Nonlinear Components by Random Fields in the US GNP Growth. Implications for the Shape of the Business Cycle," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, April.
  21. Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 313-337, October.
  22. Dijk, Dick van & Franses, Philip Hans, 1999. "Modeling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 311-340, September.
  23. Akdi, Yilmaz & Varlik, Serdar & Berument, M. Hakan, 2020. "Duration of Global Financial Cycles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).
  24. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy & Yong Song, 2009. "Extracting bull and bear markets from stock returns," Working Papers tecipa-369, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  25. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
  26. Angang Hu & Jie Lu & Zhengyan Xiao, 2011. "Has China's Economy Become More Stable and Inertial? Nonlinear Investigations Based on Structural Break and Duration Dependent Regime Switching Models," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 12(1), pages 157-181, May.
  27. Chien-Hsiu Lin & Shih-Kuei Lin & An-Chi Wu, 2015. "Foreign exchange option pricing in the currency cycle with jump risks," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 755-789, May.
  28. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1295-1312.
  29. Bilgili, Faik & Tülüce, Nadide Sevil Halıcı & Doğan, İbrahim, 2012. "The determinants of FDI in Turkey: A Markov Regime-Switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1161-1169.
  30. Oglend, Atle & Selland Kleppe, Tore, 2016. "How regular are directional movements in commodity and asset prices? A Wald test," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 290-306.
  31. Terence C. Mills & Ping Wang, 2003. "Have output growth rates stabilised? evidence from the g‐7 economies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(3), pages 232-246, August.
  32. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma, 2003. "Okun's Law Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(4), pages 439-451, September.
  33. Marie Adanero-Donderis & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Un indicateur probabiliste du cycle d'accélération pour l'économie française," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(3), pages 95-114.
  34. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Paap, R., 1998. "Censored latent effects autoregression, with an application to US unemployment," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9841, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  35. Franc Klaassen, 2005. "Long Swings in Exchange Rates: Are They Really in the Data?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 87-95, January.
  36. Anders Rygh Swensen, 1997. "Change in Regime and Markov Models," Discussion Papers 204, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  37. Lunde A. & Timmermann A., 2004. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 253-273, July.
  38. Chung-Ming Kuan, 2013. "Markov switching model (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 11, pages 13-40, December.
  39. Gloria González-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2007. "Nonlinear Time Series in Financial Forecasting," Working Papers 200803, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008.
  40. MacDonald, Ronald & Nagayasu, Jun, 2015. "Currency forecast errors and carry trades at times of low interest rates: Evidence from survey data on the yen/dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-19.
  41. Fernando Henrique De Paula E Silva Mendes & Guilherme Valle Mour, 2014. "Evidências De Bull E Bear Market No Índice Bovespa: Uma Aplicação De Modelos De Regime Markoviano E Duration Dependence," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 138, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  42. Castro, Vítor, 2010. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 347-365, March.
  43. Shyh-Wei Chen & Chung-Hua Shen, 2007. "Evidence of the duration-dependence from the stock markets in the Pacific Rim economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(11), pages 1461-1474.
  44. Laurent Calvet & Adlai Fisher, 2003. "Regime-Switching and the Estimation of Multifractal Processes," NBER Working Papers 9839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Dissecting the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  46. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2002. "Nonlinear Features of Realized FX Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 668-681, November.
  47. Toshiya Ishikawa, 2004. "Technology Diffusion and Business Cycle Asymmetry," DEGIT Conference Papers c009_016, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  48. Reuben Ellul, "undated". "Timing the Maltese business cycle: A historical perspective," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2021, Central Bank of Malta.
  49. Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Timmermann, Allan, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetries in stock returns: Evidence from higher order moments and conditional densities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 259-306, July.
  50. Massimiliano Marcellino & Oscar Jorda, "undated". "Stochastic Processes Subject to Time-Scale Transformations: An Application to High-Frequency FX Data," Working Papers 164, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  51. Kim, Dongcheol & Roh, Tai-Yong & Min, Byoung-Kyu & Byun, Suk-Joon, 2014. "Time-varying expected momentum profits," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 191-215.
  52. Warren Dean & Robert Faff, 2008. "Evidence of feedback trading with Markov switching regimes," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 133-151, February.
  53. Layton, Allan P. & Smith, Daniel R., 2007. "Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 855-875, December.
  54. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Miller, Stephen M., 2015. "Regime switching model of US crude oil and stock market prices: 1859 to 2013," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 317-327.
  55. Sean D. Campbell, 2002. "Specification Testing and Semiparametric Estimation of Regime Switching Models: An Examination of the US Short Term Interest Rate," Working Papers 2002-26, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  56. Fischer, Henning & Stolper, Oscar, 2019. "The nonlinear dynamics of corporate bond spreads: Regime-dependent effects of their determinants," Discussion Papers 08/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  57. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working Papers 201230, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  58. Theobald, Thomas, 2013. "Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79911, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  59. Harding, Don, 2008. "Detecting and forecasting business cycle turning points," MPRA Paper 33583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  60. Elsayed Elsiefy & Moustafa Ahmed AbdElaal, 2017. "Analyzing Foreign Investors Behavior in the Emerging Stock Market: Evidence from Qatar Stock Market," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(4), pages 197-197, Novebmer.
  61. Adrian pagan & Don Harding, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series. Working paper #1," NCER Working Paper Series 1, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  62. João Cruz & João Nicolau & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2021. "Structural Changes in the Duration of Bull Markets and Business Cycle Dynamics," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(3), pages 333-352, September.
  63. Òscar Jordà & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2004. "Time‐scale transformations of discrete time processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(6), pages 873-894, November.
  64. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2006. "Simultaneously modeling the volatility of the growth rate of real GDP and determining business cycle turning points: Evidence from the U.S., Canada and the UK," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 87-102.
  65. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 963, The University of Melbourne.
  66. Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46.
  67. van Os, Bram & van Dijk, Dick, 2024. "Accelerating peak dating in a dynamic factor Markov-switching model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 313-323.
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  79. Matteo M. Pelagatti, 2005. "Time Series Modeling with Duration Dependent Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions: MCMC Inference, Software and Applications," Econometrics 0503008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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