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Modelling energy technology dynamics: methodology for adaptive expectations models with learning by doing and learning by searching

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  1. Bosetti, Valentina & Catenacci, Michela & Fiorese, Giulia & Verdolini, Elena, 2012. "The future prospect of PV and CSP solar technologies: An expert elicitation survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 308-317.
  2. Guo, Jian-Xin & Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2016. "Emission path planning based on dynamic abatement cost curve," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 255(3), pages 996-1013.
  3. Uyterlinde, Martine A. & Junginger, Martin & de Vries, Hage J. & Faaij, Andre P.C. & Turkenburg, Wim C., 2007. "Implications of technological learning on the prospects for renewable energy technologies in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 4072-4087, August.
  4. Leroux, Justin & Spiro, Daniel, 2018. "Leading the unwilling: Unilateral strategies to prevent arctic oil exploration," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 125-149.
  5. Yu Sang Chang & Byong-Jin You & Hann Earl Kim, 2020. "Dynamic Trends of Fine Particulate Matter Exposure across 190 Countries: Analysis and Key Insights," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-34, April.
  6. Lindman, Åsa & Söderholm, Patrik, 2012. "Wind power learning rates: A conceptual review and meta-analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 754-761.
  7. Ek, Kristina & Söderholm, Patrik, 2010. "Technology learning in the presence of public R&D: The case of European wind power," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(12), pages 2356-2362, October.
  8. Schauf, Magnus & Schwenen, Sebastian, 2021. "Mills of progress grind slowly? Estimating learning rates for onshore wind energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
  9. Sauer, Ildo L. & Escobar, Javier F. & da Silva, Mauro F.P. & Meza, Carlos G. & Centurion, Carlos & Goldemberg, José, 2015. "Bolivia and Paraguay: A beacon for sustainable electric mobility?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 910-925.
  10. Wei, Yi-Ming & Qiao, Lu & Lv, Xin, 2020. "The impact of mergers and acquisitions on technology learning in the petroleum industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  11. Karali, Nihan & Park, Won Young & McNeil, Michael, 2017. "Modeling technological change and its impact on energy savings in the U.S. iron and steel sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 447-458.
  12. Junginger, M. & Faaij, A. & Turkenburg, W. C., 2005. "Global experience curves for wind farms," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 133-150, January.
  13. Klaassen, Ger & Miketa, Asami & Larsen, Katarina & Sundqvist, Thomas, 2005. "The impact of R&D on innovation for wind energy in Denmark, Germany and the United Kingdom," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2-3), pages 227-240, August.
  14. Xiang Huang & Yapan Qu & Zhentao Zhu & Qiuchi Wu, 2023. "Techno-Economic Analysis of Photovoltaic Hydrogen Production Considering Technological Progress Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-29, February.
  15. Gillingham, Kenneth & Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2008. "Modeling endogenous technological change for climate policy analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2734-2753, November.
  16. Javier Aliaga Lordemann & Alejandro Herrerra Jiménez, 2014. "Energy-Mix Scenarios for Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 8/2014, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
  17. Peter R. Hartley & Kenneth B. Medlock III, 2017. "The Valley of Death for New Energy Technologies," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
  18. Alemzero, David & Acheampong, Theophilus & Huaping, Sun, 2021. "Prospects of wind energy deployment in Africa: Technical and economic analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 652-666.
  19. Tobias Wiesnethal & Arnaud Mercier & Burkhard Schade & H. Petric & Lazlo Szabo, 2010. "Quantitative Assessment of the Impact of the Strategic Energy Technology Plan on the European Power Sector," JRC Research Reports JRC61065, Joint Research Centre.
  20. Karolina Safarzyńska & Jeroen Bergh, 2013. "An evolutionary model of energy transitions with interactive innovation-selection dynamics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 271-293, April.
  21. Pettersson, Fredrik & Söderholm, Patrik, 2009. "The diffusion of renewable electricity in the presence of climate policy and technology learning: The case of Sweden," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(8), pages 2031-2040, October.
  22. Marc Baudry & Clément Bonnet, 2016. "Demand pull isntruments and the development of wind power in Europe: A counter-factual analysis," Working Papers 1607, Chaire Economie du climat.
  23. Santen, Nidhi R. & Anadon, Laura Diaz, 2016. "Balancing solar PV deployment and RD&D: A comprehensive framework for managing innovation uncertainty in electricity technology investment planning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 560-569.
  24. Lehmann, Paul & Gawel, Erik, 2013. "Why should support schemes for renewable electricity complement the EU emissions trading scheme?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 597-607.
  25. Anelí Bongers, 2017. "Learning and forgetting in the jet fighter aircraft industry," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(9), pages 1-19, September.
  26. Kahouli-Brahmi, Sondes, 2009. "Testing for the presence of some features of increasing returns to adoption factors in energy system dynamics: An analysis via the learning curve approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 1195-1212, February.
  27. Loschel, Andreas, 2002. "Technological change in economic models of environmental policy: a survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2-3), pages 105-126, December.
  28. Kypreos, Socrates, 2007. "A MERGE model with endogenous technological change and the cost of carbon stabilization," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5327-5336, November.
  29. Castrejon-Campos, Omar & Aye, Lu & Hui, Felix Kin Peng & Vaz-Serra, Paulo, 2022. "Economic and environmental impacts of public investment in clean energy RD&D," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
  30. Clément Bonnet, 2016. "Measuring Knowledge with Patent Data: an Application to Low Carbon Energy Technologies," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-37, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  31. Lin, Boqiang & He, Jiaxin, 2016. "Learning curves for harnessing biomass power: What could explain the reduction of its cost during the expansion of China?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 280-288.
  32. Jan Abrell & Hannes Weigt, 2012. "Combining Energy Networks," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 377-401, September.
  33. Wang, Peng & Li, Wen & Kara, Sami, 2017. "Cradle-to-cradle modeling of the future steel flow in China," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 117(PA), pages 45-57.
  34. Nidhi R. Santen & Mort D. Webster & David Popp & Ignacio Pérez-Arriaga, 2017. "Inter-temporal R&D and capital investment portfolios for the electricity industrys low carbon future," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
  35. Klaassen Ger & Miketa & Riahi Keywan & Schrattenholzer Leo, 2002. "Technological Progress towards Sustainable Development," Energy & Environment, , vol. 13(4-5), pages 553-577, September.
  36. Lovering, Jessica R. & Yip, Arthur & Nordhaus, Ted, 2016. "Historical construction costs of global nuclear power reactors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 371-382.
  37. Hidalgo, Ignacio & Szabo, Laszlo & Carlos Ciscar, Juan & Soria, Antonio, 2005. "Technological prospects and CO2 emission trading analyses in the iron and steel industry: A global model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 583-610.
  38. Jeon, Chanwoong & Shin, Juneseuk, 2014. "Long-term renewable energy technology valuation using system dynamics and Monte Carlo simulation: Photovoltaic technology case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 447-457.
  39. Tooraj Jamasb & Michael Pollitt, 2005. "Deregulation and R&D in network industries: the case of the electricity industry," Working Papers EPRG 0502, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
  40. Kiyoon Shin & Yeongjun Yeo & Jeong-Dong Lee, 2020. "Revitalizing the Concept of Public Procurement for Innovation (PPI) from a Systemic Perspective: Objectives, Policy Types, and Impact Mechanisms," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 187-211, April.
  41. Gregory F. Nemet & Erin Baker, 2009. "Demand Subsidies Versus R&D: Comparing the Uncertain Impacts of Policy on a Pre-commercial Low-carbon Energy Technology," The Energy Journal, , vol. 30(4), pages 49-80, October.
  42. Neij, Lena & Nemet, Gregory, 2022. "Accelerating the low-carbon transition will require policy to enhance local learning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
  43. Hayashi, Daisuke & Huenteler, Joern & Lewis, Joanna I., 2018. "Gone with the wind: A learning curve analysis of China's wind power industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 38-51.
  44. Yu Sang Chang & Dosoung Choi & Hann Earl Kim, 2017. "Dynamic Trends of Carbon Intensities among 127 Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-21, December.
  45. Li, Sheng & Zhang, Xiaosong & Gao, Lin & Jin, Hongguang, 2012. "Learning rates and future cost curves for fossil fuel energy systems with CO2 capture: Methodology and case studies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 348-356.
  46. Peter Hartley, Kenneth B. Medlock III, Ted Temzelides, Xinya Zhang, 2016. "Energy Sector Innovation and Growth: An Optimal Energy Crisis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
  47. Clément Bonnet, 2017. "Measuring Inventive Performance with Patent Data: an Application to Low Carbon Energy Technologies," Working Papers 1709, Chaire Economie du climat.
  48. Javier Aliaga Lordemann & Alejandro Herrera Jiménez, 2014. "Escenarios de la matriz energética para Bolivia," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 22, pages 135-160.
  49. Marcucci, Adriana & Turton, Hal, 2015. "Induced technological change in moderate and fragmented climate change mitigation regimes," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 230-242.
  50. Hong, Sungjun & Chung, Yanghon & Woo, Chungwon, 2015. "Scenario analysis for estimating the learning rate of photovoltaic power generation based on learning curve theory in South Korea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 80-89.
  51. Lee, Shun-Chung & Shih, Li-Hsing, 2010. "Renewable energy policy evaluation using real option model -- The case of Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 67-78, September.
  52. Clement Bonnet, 2020. "Measuring Knowledge with Patent Data: an Application to Low Carbon Energy Technologies," Working Papers hal-02971680, HAL.
  53. Criqui, P. & Mima, S. & Menanteau, P. & Kitous, A., 2015. "Mitigation strategies and energy technology learning: An assessment with the POLES model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 119-136.
  54. Rout, Ullash K. & Blesl, Markus & Fahl, Ulrich & Remme, Uwe & Voß, Alfred, 2009. "Uncertainty in the learning rates of energy technologies: An experiment in a global multi-regional energy system model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4927-4942, November.
  55. Kahouli, Sondès, 2011. "Effects of technological learning and uranium price on nuclear cost: Preliminary insights from a multiple factors learning curve and uranium market modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 840-852, September.
  56. Neij, Lena, 2008. "Cost development of future technologies for power generation--A study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assessments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 2200-2211, June.
  57. Reinhard Haas & Marlene Sayer & Amela Ajanovic & Hans Auer, 2023. "Technological learning: Lessons learned on energy technologies," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), March.
  58. Hann-Earl Kim & Yu-Sang Chang & Hee-Jin Kim, 2021. "Dynamic Electricity Intensity Trends in 91 Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-26, April.
  59. Yan Xu & Jiahai Yuan & Jianxiu Wang, 2017. "Learning of Power Technologies in China: Staged Dynamic Two-Factor Modeling and Empirical Evidence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-14, May.
  60. Pan, Haoran & Kohler, Jonathan, 2007. "Technological change in energy systems: Learning curves, logistic curves and input-output coefficients," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(4), pages 749-758, September.
  61. Portugal-Pereira, J. & Ferreira, P. & Cunha, J. & Szklo, A. & Schaeffer, R. & Araújo, M., 2018. "Better late than never, but never late is better: Risk assessment of nuclear power construction projects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 158-166.
  62. Thomassen, Gwenny & Van Passel, Steven & Dewulf, Jo, 2020. "A review on learning effects in prospective technology assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  63. Yu, C.F. & van Sark, W.G.J.H.M. & Alsema, E.A., 2011. "Unraveling the photovoltaic technology learning curve by incorporation of input price changes and scale effects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 324-337, January.
  64. Berglund, Christer & Soderholm, Patrik, 2006. "Modeling technical change in energy system analysis: analyzing the introduction of learning-by-doing in bottom-up energy models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 1344-1356, August.
  65. Marc Baudry & Clément Bonnet, 2019. "Demand-Pull Instruments and the Development of Wind Power in Europe: A Counterfactual Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(2), pages 385-429, June.
  66. Chen, Weidong & Han, Mingzhe, 2025. "Quantifying the cost savings of global solar PV and onshore wind markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
  67. Pettersson, Fredrik, 2007. "Carbon pricing and the diffusion of renewable power generation in Eastern Europe: A linear programming approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2412-2425, April.
  68. Rubin, Edward S. & Azevedo, Inês M.L. & Jaramillo, Paulina & Yeh, Sonia, 2015. "A review of learning rates for electricity supply technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 198-218.
  69. Nemet, Gregory F., 2009. "Demand-pull, technology-push, and government-led incentives for non-incremental technical change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 700-709, June.
  70. Peter Russ, 2004. "The Role of Accelerated Power Generation Technology Development to Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Energy & Environment, , vol. 15(2), pages 159-173, March.
  71. Hayward, Jennifer A. & Graham, Paul W., 2013. "A global and local endogenous experience curve model for projecting future uptake and cost of electricity generation technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 537-548.
  72. Vasilakou, Konstantina & Nimmegeers, Philippe & Thomassen, Gwenny & Billen, Pieter & Van Passel, Steven, 2023. "Assessing the future of second-generation bioethanol by 2030 – A techno-economic assessment integrating technology learning curves," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 344(C).
  73. Marcucci, Adriana & Panos, Evangelos & Kypreos, Socrates & Fragkos, Panagiotis, 2019. "Probabilistic assessment of realizing the 1.5 °C climate target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 239-251.
  74. Guillaume Bourgeois & Sandrine Mathy & Philippe Menanteau, 2017. "The effect of climate policies on renewable energies : a review of econometric studies [L’effet des politiques climatiques sur les énergies renouvelables : une revue des études économétriques]," Post-Print hal-01585906, HAL.
  75. Qiu, Yueming & Anadon, Laura D., 2012. "The price of wind power in China during its expansion: Technology adoption, learning-by-doing, economies of scale, and manufacturing localization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 772-785.
  76. Hekkert, Marko P. & Harmsen, Robert & de Jong, Arjen, 2007. "Explaining the rapid diffusion of Dutch cogeneration by innovation system functioning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4677-4687, September.
  77. Hong, Soonpa & Yang, Taeyong & Chang, Hyun Joon & Hong, Sungjun, 2020. "The effect of switching renewable energy support systems on grid parity for photovoltaics: Analysis using a learning curve model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
  78. Zhang, Mingming & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, Peng, 2014. "A real option model for renewable energy policy evaluation with application to solar PV power generation in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 944-955.
  79. Kyunam Kim & Eunnyeong Heo & Yeonbae Kim, 2017. "Dynamic Policy Impacts on a Technological-Change System of Renewable Energy: An Empirical Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 66(2), pages 205-236, February.
  80. Karsten Neuhoff, 2008. "Learning by Doing with Constrained Growth Rates: An Application to Energy Technology Policy," The Energy Journal, , vol. 29(2_suppl), pages 165-183, December.
  81. Junginger, Martin & de Visser, Erika & Hjort-Gregersen, Kurt & Koornneef, Joris & Raven, Rob & Faaij, Andre & Turkenburg, Wim, 2006. "Technological learning in bioenergy systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 4024-4041, December.
  82. Lohwasser, Richard & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Relating R&D and investment policies to CCS market diffusion through two-factor learning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 439-452.
  83. Nidhi R. Santen & Mort D. Webster & David Popp & Ignacio Pérez-Arriaga, 2014. "Inter-temporal R&D and Capital Investment Portfolios for the Electricity Industry's Low Carbon Future," CESifo Working Paper Series 5139, CESifo.
  84. Kypreos, Socrates, 2012. "From the Copenhagen Accord to efficient technology protocols," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 341-353.
  85. Wen, Xin & Jaxa-Rozen, Marc & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2023. "Hindcasting to inform the development of bottom-up electricity system models: The cases of endogenous demand and technology learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
  86. Heinrich, G. & Howells, M. & Basson, L. & Petrie, J., 2007. "Electricity supply industry modelling for multiple objectives under demand growth uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2210-2229.
  87. Nidhi R. Santen & Mort D. Webster & David Popp & Ignacio Pérez-Arriaga, 2017. "Inter-temporal R&D and Capital Investment Portfolios for the Electricity Industry’s Low Carbon Future," The Energy Journal, , vol. 38(6), pages 1-24, November.
  88. Marcel Zürn & Robert Küster & Ingo Ellersdorfer & Ulrich Fahl, 2007. "R&D Investments and Knowledge Input in a Technology Oriented CGE Model," Energy and Environmental Modeling 2007 24000067, EcoMod.
  89. Grafström, Jonas & Poudineh, Rahmat, 2021. "A review of problems associated with learning curves for solar and wind power technologies," Ratio Working Papers 347, The Ratio Institute.
  90. Kahouli-Brahmi, Sondes, 2008. "Technological learning in energy-environment-economy modelling: A survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 138-162, January.
  91. Nidhi R. Santen & Mort D. Webster & David Popp & Ignacio Pérez-Arriaga, 2014. "Inter-temporal R&D and Capital Investment Portfolios for the Electricity Industry’s Low Carbon Future," NBER Working Papers 20783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  92. Castrejon-Campos, Omar & Aye, Lu & Hui, Felix Kin Peng, 2022. "Effects of learning curve models on onshore wind and solar PV cost developments in the USA," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
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