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The End of the Great Depression 1939-41: Policy Contributions and Fiscal Multipliers

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Luca Metelli & Kevin Pallara, 2020. "Fiscal space and the size of the fiscal multiplier," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1293, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Luca Fanelli & Marco Mazzali, 2025. "The Size and Uncertainty of Government Spending Multipliers in Italian Regions," Working Papers wp1216, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  3. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2017. "Deep Recessions, Fast Recoveries, And Financial Crises: Evidence From The American Record," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 527-541, January.
  4. Pope, Robin & Selten, Reinhard, 2011. "Public Debt Tipping Point Studies Ingnore How Exchange Rate Changes May Create A Financial Meltdown," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 15/2011, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
  5. Simona Lorena Comi & Elena Cottini & Claudio Lucifora, 2020. "The effect of retirement on social relationships: new evidence from SHARE," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def088, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
  6. Robert A. Blecker, 2016. "Wage-led versus profit-led demand regimes: the long and the short of it," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 373-390, October.
  7. Germano Ruisi, 2019. "Time-Varying Local Projections," Working Papers 891, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/eul7jlnf19iq8tdp0vlfv63n5 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Patrick Blagrave & Giang Ho & Ksenia Koloskova & Mr. Esteban Vesperoni, 2017. "Fiscal Spillovers: The Importance of Macroeconomic and Policy Conditions in Transmission," IMF Spillover Notes 2017/002, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Timothy J. Hatton & Mark Thomas, 2012. "Labour Markets in Recession and Recovery: The UK and the USA in the 1920s and 1930s," CEH Discussion Papers 001, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  11. Goemans, Pascal, 2020. "Government Spending in Uncertain and Slack Times: Historical Evidence for Larger Fiscal Multipliers," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224642, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  12. Jerow, Sam & Wolff, Jonathan, 2022. "Fiscal policy and uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
  13. Berge, Travis & De Ridder, Maarten & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2021. "When is the fiscal multiplier high? A comparison of four business cycle phases," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
  14. O'Rourke, Kevin, 2015. "Economic impossibilities for our grandchildren?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10974, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 673-685, September.
  16. Oh, Hyunseung & Reis, Ricardo, 2012. "Targeted transfers and the fiscal response to the great recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(S), pages 50-64.
  17. Francesco Saraceno, 2017. "Rethinking fiscal policy : lessons from the european monetary union," Working Papers hal-03457591, HAL.
  18. Sergio Destefanis & Mario Di Serio & Matteo Fragetta, 2022. "Regional multipliers across the Italian regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 1179-1205, September.
  19. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2012. "The Fiscal Stimulus of 2009-2010: Trade Openness, Fiscal Space, and Exchange Rate Adjustment," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 301-342.
  20. Pascal Goemans, 2022. "Historical evidence for larger government spending multipliers in uncertain times than in slumps," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1164-1185, July.
  21. Francesco Simone Lucidi, 2023. "The misalignment of fiscal multipliers in Italian regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(10), pages 2073-2086, October.
  22. Amendola, Adalgiso & Di Serio, Mario & Fragetta, Matteo & Melina, Giovanni, 2020. "The euro-area government spending multiplier at the effective lower bound," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
  23. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi & Chiara Punzo, 2022. "Nonlinearities and expenditure multipliers in the Eurozone [Tales of fiscal adjustment]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 552-575.
  24. Atems, Bebonchu, 2019. "The effects of government spending shocks: Evidence from U.S. states," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 65-80.
  25. Sungbae An & Hyosang Kim & Seung-Hyun Kim & Da Young Yang & Jinhee Lee & Ko Un Cho & Wongi Kim & Jinill Kim, 2021. "포스트 코로나 시대 주요국의 통화·재정정책 방향과 시사점(hanges, Challenges and Implications of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Directions in the Post Pandemic Era)," Policy Analyses 21-15, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.
  26. Batini, Nicoletta & Di Serio, Mario & Fragetta, Matteo & Melina, Giovanni & Waldron, Anthony, 2022. "Building back better: How big are green spending multipliers?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
  27. Jaremski, Matthew & Mathy, Gabriel, 2018. "How was the quantitative easing program of the 1930s Unwound?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 27-49.
  28. Edoardo Briganti & Victor Sellemi, 2022. "Why Does GDP Move Before G? It's all in the Measurement," Papers 2212.06073, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
  29. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2020. "How much did uncertainty shocks matter in the Great Depression?," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(2), pages 283-323, May.
  30. Goemans, Pascal, 2023. "The impact of public consumption and investment in the euro area during periods of high and normal uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  31. Timothy J. Hatton & Mark Thomas, 2010. "Labour markets in the interwar period and economic recovery in the UK and the USA," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 463-485, Autumn.
  32. Ghassibe, Mishel & Zanetti, Francesco, 2022. "State dependence of fiscal multipliers: the source of fluctuations matters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1-23.
  33. Bluwstein, Kristina & Buckmann, Marcus & Joseph, Andreas & Kapadia, Sujit & Şimşek, Özgür, 2023. "Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: Evidence from a machine learning approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
  34. Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Dan Cao, 2012. "Technological Revolutions and Debt Hangovers: Is There a Causal Link?," 2012 Meeting Papers 899, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  35. Jonathan A. Parker, 2011. "On Measuring the Effects of Fiscal Policy in Recessions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 703-718, September.
  36. Farhi, E. & Werning, I., 2016. "Fiscal Multipliers☆☆We thank the editors John Taylor and Harald Uhlig for detailed comments, as well as suggestions and comments by Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Jon Steinsson, and Michael Weber," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2417-2492, Elsevier.
  37. Mathias Klein & Roland Winkler, 2021. "The government spending multiplier at the zero lower bound: International evidence from historical data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 744-759, September.
  38. Stephen Broadberry & Jagjit S. Chadha & Jason Lennard & Ryland Thomas, 2023. "Dating business cycles in the United Kingdom, 1700–2010," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(4), pages 1141-1162, November.
  39. Marco Bernardini & Gert Peersman, 2018. "Private debt overhang and the government spending multiplier: Evidence for the United States," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 485-508, June.
  40. Price Fishback & Joseph A. Cullen, 2013. "Second World War spending and local economic activity in US counties, 1939–58," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 66(4), pages 975-992, November.
  41. Ricco, Giovanni, 2015. "A new identification of fiscal shocks based on the information flow," Working Paper Series 1813, European Central Bank.
  42. Ji, Yangyang & Xiao, Wei, 2016. "Government spending multipliers and the zero lower bound," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 87-100.
  43. Neaime, Simon & Badra, Nasser & Gaysset, Isabelle, 2023. "Fiscal asymmetries and debt crises: Evidence from Lebanon using a sign restricted structural VAR model," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
  44. Gabriel Temesgen Woldu, 2023. "The asymmetric effect of fiscal policy on private consumption and private investment over a business cycle: Evidence from Sub‐Saharan African countries," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(6), pages 1147-1162, August.
  45. Juan A. Correa & Christian Ferrada & Pablo Guti�rrez & Francisco Parro, 2014. "Effects of fiscal policy on private consumption: evidence from structural-balance fiscal rule deviations," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(11), pages 776-781, July.
  46. Mario Di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Emanuel Gasteiger, 2020. "The Government Spending Multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from the United States," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(6), pages 1262-1294, December.
  47. Ricardo Silva & Vitor Manuel Carvalho & Ana Paula Ribeiro, 2013. "How large are fiscal multipliers? A panel-data VAR approach for the Euro area," FEP Working Papers 500, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  48. Zacharias Bragoudakis & Dimitrios Panas, 2021. "Investigating government spending multiplier for the US economy: empirical evidence using a triple lasso approach," Working Papers 292, Bank of Greece.
  49. Nicolas‐Guillaume Martineau & Gregor W. Smith, 2015. "Identifying fiscal policy (in)effectiveness from the differential counter‐cyclicality of government spending in the interwar period," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(4), pages 1291-1320, November.
  50. Emmanuel Farhi & Ivan Werning, "undated". "Fiscal Multipliers: Liquidity Traps and Currency Unions," Working Paper 78556, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  51. Ochsner, Christian & Zuber, Christopher, 2025. "Output, prices and public debt under the new German fiscal consensus," Working Papers 01/2025, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
  52. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2014. "Uncertainty Shocks and Equity Return Jumps and Volatility During the Great Depression," Working Papers 2014-02, American University, Department of Economics.
  53. Reljic, Jelena & Zezza, Francesco, 2025. "Breaking the divide: Can public spending on social infrastructure boost female employment in Italy?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  54. Marco Bernardini & Selien De Schryder & Gert Peersman, 2020. "Heterogeneous Government Spending Multipliers in the Era Surrounding the Great Recession," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 304-322, May.
  55. Agata Szymańska, 2018. "Wpływ polityki fiskalnej na PKB w krajach Unii Europejskiej spoza strefy euro," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 49-74.
  56. Orsola Costantini, 2015. "The Cyclically Adjusted Budget: History and Exegesis of a Fateful Estimate," Working Papers Series 24, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
  57. Kim Abildgren, 2016. "A century of macro-financial linkages," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 8(4), pages 458-471, November.
  58. Sébastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2015. "Why the Keynesian Multiplier Increases During Hard Times: A Theoretical Explanation Based on Rentiers' Saving Behaviour," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 451-473, July.
  59. Ethan Ilzetzki, 2024. "Learning by Necessity: Government Demand, Capacity Constraints, and Productivity Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(8), pages 2436-2471, August.
  60. Sergio Destefanis & Valter Di Giacinto, 2025. "The Heterogeneous Effects of EU Structural Funds: A Spatial VAR Approach," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 497-517, March.
  61. Haroon Mumtaz & Michele Piffer, 2022. "Impulse response estimation via flexible local projections," Papers 2204.13150, arXiv.org.
  62. Kumar, Abhishek & Mallick, Sushanta & Sinha, Apra, 2024. "Fiscal spillover in emerging economies: Real versus financial channels," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  63. Ilzetzki, Ethan, 2025. "Guns and growth: The economic consequences of defense buildups," Kiel Reports 2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  64. Michael Cauvel, 2019. "The neo-Goodwinian model reconsidered," Working Papers PKWP1915, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
  65. Ilzetzki, Ethan, 2024. "Learning by necessity: government demand, capacity constraints, and productivity growth," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124150, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  66. Nicholas Crafts, 2014. "What Does the 1930s' Experience Tell Us about the Future of the Eurozone?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 713-727, July.
  67. Vincent Geloso & Casey Pender, 2023. "The myth of wartime prosperity: Evidence from the Canadian experience," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 104(4), pages 377-394, July.
  68. Ankargren, Sebastian & Shahnazarian, Hovick, 2019. "The Interaction Between Fiscal and Monetary Policies: Evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 365, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Apr 2019.
  69. Chattha, Muhammad Khudadad & Kawalec, Tobias, 2025. "Fiscal Multipliers in Resource-Rich Economies : Evidence from the Gulf Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11193, The World Bank.
  70. Kim, Wongi, 2023. "Private sector debt overhang and government spending multipliers: Not all debts are alike," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  71. Sergio Destefanis & Valter Di Giacinto, 2022. "EU structural funds and GDP per capita: Spatial VAR evidence for the European regions," Discussion Paper series in Regional Science & Economic Geography 2022-09, Gran Sasso Science Institute, Social Sciences, revised Oct 2024.
  72. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2014. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 139-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  73. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 63-98, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  74. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2018. "Hysteresis and persistent long-term unemployment: the American Beveridge Curve of the Great Depression and World War II," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 12(1), pages 127-152, January.
  75. Emi Nakamura & J?n Steinsson, 2014. "Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union: Evidence from US Regions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 753-792, March.
  76. Nicholas Crafts & Peter Fearon, 2010. "Lessons from the 1930s Great Depression," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 285-317, Autumn.
  77. Charles Olivier Mao Takongmo & Laetitia Lebihan, 2021. "Government Spending, GDP and Exchange Rate in Zero Lower Bound: Measuring Causality at Multiple Horizons," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 139-160, March.
  78. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Mauricio Ulate, 2018. "The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 343-441.
  79. Berge, Travis & De Ridder, Maarten & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2021. "When is the fiscal multiplier high? A comparison of four business cycle phases," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 111517, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  80. Michael Cauvel, 2019. "The Neo-Goodwinian model, reconsidered," FMM Working Paper 47-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  81. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2011. "What Fiscal Policy Is Effective at Zero Interest Rates?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010, volume 25, pages 59-112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  82. Eichengreen, Barry, 2017. "A two-handed approach to secular stagnation: Some thoughts based on 1930s experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 650-654.
  83. Francesco Zezza & Dario Guarascio, 2024. "Fiscal policy, public investment and structural change: a P-SVAR analysis on Italian regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(6), pages 1356-1373, June.
  84. Roberto Perotti, 2012. "Comment on "Government Spending and Private Activity"," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 56-61, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  85. George Chouliarakis & Tadeusz Gwiazdowski & Sophia Lazaretou, 2016. "The Effect of Fiscal Policy on Output in Times of Crisis and Prosperity: Historical Evidence From Greece ," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 230, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  86. Haroon Mumtaz & Michele Piffer, 2022. "Impulse response estimation via fexible local projections," Working Papers 938, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  87. Michael Woodford, 2011. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, January.
  88. Sheremirov, Viacheslav & Spirovska, Sandra, 2022. "Fiscal multipliers in advanced and developing countries: Evidence from military spending," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
  89. Olivier Blanchard & Christopher J. Erceg & Jesper Lindé, 2017. "Jump-Starting the Euro-Area Recovery: Would a Rise in Core Fiscal Spending Help the Periphery?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 103-182.
  90. Nicholas Crafts, 2013. "Returning to growth: lessons from the 1930s," Working Papers 13010, Economic History Society.
  91. Paulo R. Mota & Abel L. Costa Fernandes & Ana-Cristina Nicolescu, 2012. "The Recent Dynamics of Public Debt in the European Union: A Matter of Fundamentals or the Result of a Failed Monetary Experiment?," FEP Working Papers 467, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
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