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Why the Keynesian Multiplier Increases During Hard Times: A Theoretical Explanation Based on Rentiers' Saving Behaviour

Author

Listed:
  • Sébastien Charles

    (LED - Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien - UP8 - Université Paris 8)

  • Thomas Dallery

    (CLERSÉ - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale)

  • Jonathan Marie

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This article analyses the Keynesian multiplier from a new perspective. Recent empirical studies emphasize that the multiplier is endogenous to the level of economic activity, increasing during recessions and declining in expansions. Here, we propose a plausible explanation for this established fact based on the procyclicality of capitalists' propensity to save. Then, using a standard Kaleckian model of growth and distribution, we perform some simple simulations showing that fiscal multipliers increase during turbulent times. Consequently, this argues against cutting public spending for economies in recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Sébastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2015. "Why the Keynesian Multiplier Increases During Hard Times: A Theoretical Explanation Based on Rentiers' Saving Behaviour," Post-Print halshs-01346443, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01346443
    DOI: 10.1111/meca.12075
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    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Bagnai & Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, 2018. "Monetary integration vs. real disintegration: single currency and productivity divergence in the euro area," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 353-367, October.
    2. Charles, Sébastien, 2019. "Le multiplicateur budgétaire endogène au cycle dans un modèle macroéconomique post-keynésien [The state-dependent fiscal Multiplier in a Post-Keynesian Macroeconomic Model]," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 26.
    3. Theodore Mariolis & Nikolaos Ntemiroglou & George Soklis, 2018. "The static demand multipliers in a joint production framework: comparative findings for the Greek, Spanish and Eurozone economies," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-20, December.
    4. Ian M. McDonald, 2021. "A Keynesian model of aggregate demand in the long‐run," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 442-459, July.
    5. Pragidis, I.C. & Tsintzos, P. & Plakandaras, B., 2018. "Asymmetric effects of government spending shocks during the financial cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 372-387.
    6. Mark Setterfield, 2015. "Time variation in the size of the multiplier: a Kalecki-Harrod approach," Working Papers 1522, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2017.
    7. Theodore Mariolis & Nikolaos Ntemiroglou, 2023. "Matrix multipliers, demand composition and income distribution: Post‐Keynesian–Sraffian theory and evidence from the world's ten largest economies," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(4), pages 658-697, November.
    8. Sebastian Gechert, 2023. "Fiscal policy: post- or New Keynesian?," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 338-355, November.
    9. Karsten Kohler & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2022. "Growing differently? Financial cycles, austerity, and competitiveness in growth models since the Global Financial Crisis," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 1314-1341, July.
    10. Sébastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2018. "Some Thoughts and Proposals Concerning the Concept of Output Gap [Réflexions et suggestions autour du concept d’output gap]," Post-Print hal-02335667, HAL.
    11. Sébastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2018. "Why Are Keynesian Multipliers Larger in Hard Times? A Palley-Aftalion-Pasinetti Explanation," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 736-756, December.
    12. Thierry Betti & Thomas Coudert, 2022. "How harmful are cuts in public employment and wage in times of high unemployment?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 247-277, January.
    13. Sébastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2021. "Covid-19 and interweaving of crises: Restoring Keynesianism in order to rebuild macroeconomic policy [Covid-19 et imbrication des crises : réhabiliter le keynésianisme pour refonder la politique macroéconomique]," Post-Print hal-03148074, HAL.

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