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Central banks' interest rate and international trade in BRIC countries: Agriculture vs machinery industry?

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  • Borodin, Konstantin
  • Strokov, Anton

Abstract

The paper investigates interrelations between the dynamics of national central banks' interest rates and international trade within the BRIC countries. It shows that countries with lower interest rates experience growth of the share of machinery industry exports rather than agriculture and food products, and, on the contrary, in countries with higher interest rates the share of agriculture and food exports increases and the share of machinery industry products declines. The investigation has shown that a relative shift in the interest rate can affect the specialization of countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Borodin, Konstantin & Strokov, Anton, 2011. "Central banks' interest rate and international trade in BRIC countries: Agriculture vs machinery industry?," IAMO Forum 2011: Will the "BRICs Decade" Continue? – Prospects for Trade and Growth 18, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iamo11:18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    2. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-393, March.
    3. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2002. "Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 185-213.
    4. Albu, Lucian-Liviu, 2010. "Scenarios for post-crisis period based on a set of presumed changes in the interest rate – investment – GDP growth relationship," MPRA Paper 32753, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central banks' interest rate; Exports; Specialization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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