IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Tolerance For Uncertainty and the Growth of Informationally Opaque Industries

  • Rocco Huang

    (University of Amsterdam)

Hofstede (1980)’s cross-country psychological survey of IBM employees shows that some countries (societies) are systematically more tolerant of uncertainty, while tolerance of uncertainty is shown by Rigotti et al. (2003)’s model to be essential to the growth of “emerging sectors about which little is known”. We use Durnev, Morck and Yeung (2004)’s methodology to identify these informationally opaque industries. We hypothesize that, countries characterized by high uncertainty aversion (measured by Hofstede’s indicator) will, because of uncertainty aversion, grow disproportionately slower in industrial sectors where information is less available (proxied by lower informativeness of stock prices in the U.S., Durnev et al. 2004). Using the Rajan and Zingales (1998) “differences-in-differences” methodology, in 34 countries and 36 manufacturing industries, we indeed find robust evidence for this pattern of industrial growth. We also show that national uncertainty aversion is not proxying for under-development of financial sector, inadaptability of civil law systems, lower level of economic development, or many other factors. Our results are also robust when we use religious (Protestant/Catholic) composition to instrument for national uncertainty aversion.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0507020.

in new window

Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 19 Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0507020
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 42
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Stulz, Rene M. & Williamson, Rohan, 2003. "Culture, openness, and finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 313-349, December.
  2. Stijn Claessens & Luc Laeven, 2003. "Financial Development, Property Rights, and Growth," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2401-2436, December.
  3. Raquel Fernández & Alessandra Fogli, 2006. "Fertility: The Role of Culture and Family Experience," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 552-561, 04-05.
  4. Rigotti, L. & Ryan, M. & Vaithianathan, R., 2001. "Entrepreneurial Innovation," Discussion Paper 2001-21, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  5. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 1999. "Diversity of Opinion and Financing of New Technologies," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 8(1-2), pages 68-89, January.
  6. Nicola Cetorelli & Michele Gambera, 1999. "Banking market structure, financial dependence and growth: international evidence from industry data," Working Paper Series WP-99-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  7. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Cristian Pop-Eleches & Andrei Shleifer, 2004. "Judicial Checks and Balances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(2), pages 445-470, April.
  8. Simeon Djankov & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silane & Andrei Shleifer & Juan Botero, 2003. "The Regulation of Labor," NBER Working Papers 9756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2005. "Cultural Biases in Economic Exchange," 2005 Meeting Papers 234, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Kan Li & Randall Morck & Fan Yang & Bernard Yeung, 2003. "Firm-Specific Variation and Openness in Emerging Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-623, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  11. Edward L. Glaeser & Bruce I. Sacerdote & Jose A. Scheinkman, 2002. "The Social Multiplier," NBER Working Papers 9153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Botero, J. C. & Djankov, S. & Porta, R. L. & Lopez-de-Silanes, F. & Shleifer, Andrei, 2004. "The Regulation of Labor," Scholarly Articles 27867241, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  13. Rocco Huang, 2005. "Distance and Trade: Disentangling unfamiliarity effects and transport cost effects," International Trade 0511010, EconWPA.
  14. Arturo Galindo & Alejandro Micco, 2001. "Creditor Protection and Financial Cycles," Research Department Publications 4249, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  15. Mukerji, S., 1997. "Ambiguity aversion and incompleteness of contractual form," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9715, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  16. Raymond Fisman & Inessa Love, 2002. "Trade Credit, Financial Intermediary Development and Industry Growth," NBER Working Papers 8960, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Guiso, Luigi & Sapienza, Paola & Zingales, Luigi, 2006. "Does Culture Affect Economic Outcomes?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5505, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 2002. "Law and finance : why does legal origin matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2904, The World Bank.
  19. Guiso, Luigi & Sapienza, Paola & Zingales, Luigi, 2000. "The Role of Social Capital In Financial Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 2383, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2002. "Industry growth and capital allocation:*1: does having a market- or bank-based system matter?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 147-180, May.
  21. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2005. "Unbundling Institutions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 949-995, October.
  22. Arturo Bris & William N. Goetzmann & Ning Zhu, 2003. "Efficiency and the Bear: Short Sales and Markets around the World," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm321, Yale School of Management.
  23. Sujoy Mukerji & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2000. "Ambiguity Aversion and Incompleteness of Financial Markets," Economics Series Working Papers 46, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  24. Rafael LaPorta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, . "Law and Finance," Working Paper 19451, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  25. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-86, June.
  26. Bae, Kee-Hong & Bailey, Warren & Mao, Connie X., 2006. "Stock market liberalization and the information environment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 404-428, April.
  27. La Porta, Rafael, et al, 1997. "Trust in Large Organizations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 333-38, May.
  28. Simeon Djankov & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2003. "Courts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(2), pages 453-517.
    • Simeon Djankov & Rafael LaPorta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, . "Courts," Working Paper 19471, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  29. Guiso, Luigi & Sapienza, Paola & Zingales, Luigi, 2005. "Trusting the Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5288, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  30. Guiso, Luigi & Sapienza, Paola & Zingales, Luigi, 2003. "People's opium? Religion and economic attitudes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 225-282, January.
  31. Sujoy Mukerji & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2003. "An overview of economic applications of David Schmeidler`s models of decision making under uncertainty," Economics Series Working Papers 165, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  32. Wendy Carlin & Colin Mayer, 1999. "Finance, Investment and Growth," OFRC Working Papers Series 1999fe09, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  33. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1997. "Does Social Capital Have an Economic Payoff? A Cross-Country Investigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1251-1288.
  34. Artyom Durnev & Randall Morck & Bernard Yeung & Paul Zarowin, 2003. "Does Greater Firm-Specific Return Variation Mean More or Less Informed Stock Pricing?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 797-836, December.
  35. Raymond Fisman & Inessa Love, 2007. "Financial Dependence and Growth Revisited," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 470-479, 04-05.
  36. Art Durnev & Randall Morck & Bernard Yeung, 2004. "Value-Enhancing Capital Budgeting and Firm-specific Stock Return Variation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(1), pages 65-105, 02.
  37. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00174539 is not listed on IDEAS
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0507020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.