IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Unanticipated vs. Anticipated Tax Reforms in a Two-Sector Open Economy

  • Olivier Cardi
  • Romain Restout

We use a two-sector neoclassical open economy model with traded and non-traded goods to investigate the effects of unanticipated and anticipated tax reforms. First, an unanticipated tax reform produces an expansion of GDP, labor, and investment, while an anticipated tax reform has opposite effects before the implementation of the labor tax cut. Quantitatively, if the traded sector is more capital intensive, GDP increases by 1.6 percentage points or declines by 2.8 percentage points after three years, depending on whether the tax cut is unanticipated or anticipated. Second, we find that GDP change masks a wide dispersion in sectoral output responses. Importantly, in all scenarios, a tax reform substantially raises the relative size of the non-traded sector while traded output always drops. Allowing for the markup to depend on the number of competitors, we find that a significant share of GDP change can be attributed to the competition channel while the dispersion of sectoral output responses is amplified. Finally, the workers only benefit from the labor tax cut if the tax change is unanticipated and the traded sector is more capital intensive.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.beta-umr7522.fr/productions/publications/2012/2012-01.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg in its series Working Papers of BETA with number 2012-01.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2012-01
Contact details of provider: Postal: PEGE. 61, Aven. de la Forêt-Noire 67000 Strasbourg
Phone: +33 3 68 85 20 69
Fax: +33 3 68 85 20 70
Web page: http://www.beta-umr7522.fr/Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. King, R.G. & Baxter, M., 1990. "Fiscal Policy In General Equilibrium," RCER Working Papers 244, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  2. Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1990. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," NBER Working Papers 3566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Olivier Cardi & Romain Restout, 2014. "Unanticipated vs. Anticipated Tax Reforms in a Two-Sector Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 373-406, April.
  4. Alan J Auerbach, 2011. "Long-term fiscal sustainability in major economies," BIS Working Papers 361, Bank for International Settlements.
  5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Julio J. Rotemberg & Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "Intertemporal Substitution in Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 0898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2012. "Measuring Tax Multipliers: The Narrative Method in Fiscal VARs," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 69-94, May.
  7. Langot, François & Patureau, Lise & Sopraseuth, Thepthida, 2012. "Optimal Fiscal Devaluation," IZA Discussion Papers 6624, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2012. "Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 145-81, May.
  9. Coto-Martinez, Javier & Dixon, Huw, 2003. "Profits, markups and entry: fiscal policy in an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 573-597, February.
  10. Turnovsky Stephen J. & Sen Partha, 1995. "Investment in a Two-Sector Dependent Economy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 29-55, March.
  11. Nir Jaimovich, 2004. "Firm Dynamics, Markup Variations, and the Business Cycle," Discussion Papers 07-013, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, revised Mar 2007.
  12. Filippo Altissimo & Pierpaolo Benigno & Diego Palenzuela, 2011. "Inflation Differentials in a Currency Area: Facts, Explanations and Policy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 189-233, April.
  13. Karlygash Kuralbayeva & David Vines, 2008. "Shocks to Terms of Trade and Risk-premium in an Intertemporal Model: The Dutch Disease and a Dutch Party," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 277-303, July.
  14. Glick, Reuven & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 159-192, February.
  15. Enrique G. Mendoza & Linda L. Tesar, 1995. "Supply-Side Economics in a Global Economy," NBER Working Papers 5086, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Susan Yang, Shu-Chun, 2005. "Quantifying tax effects under policy foresight," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1557-1568, November.
  17. Atolia, Manoj & Buffie, Edward F., 2011. "Solving The Unit Root Problem In Models With An Exogenous World Market Interest Rate," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(05), pages 681-712, November.
  18. Perotti, Roberto, 2011. "The Effects of Tax Shocks on Output: Not So Large, But Not Small Either," CEPR Discussion Papers 8252, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Coenen, Günter & McAdam, Peter & Straub, Roland, 2007. "Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: a simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model," Working Paper Series 0747, European Central Bank.
  20. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Petrucci, Alberto & Phelps, Edmund S., 2009. "Two-sector perspectives on the effects of payroll tax cuts and their financing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 176-190, February.
  22. Roberto Perotti, 2011. "The Effects of Tax Shocks on Output: Not So Large, But Not Small Either," NBER Working Papers 16786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Agustin S. Benetrix & Philip R. Lane, 2009. "Fiscal Shocks and The Sectoral Composition of Output," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp294, IIIS.
  24. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
  25. Matthew D. Shapiro & Christopher L. House, 2006. "Phased-In Tax Cuts and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1835-1849, December.
  26. James Cloyne, 2013. "Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1507-28, June.
  27. Wu, Yangru & Zhang, Junxi, 2000. "Endogenous markups and the effects of income taxation:: Theory and evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 383-406, September.
  28. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
  29. Valerie Cerra & Serpil Tekin & Stephen Turnovsky, 2009. "Foreign Transfers and Real Exchange Rate Adjustments in a Financially Constrained Dependent Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 147-181, April.
  30. Schubert, Stefan F & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 2002. "The Dynamics of Temporary Policies in a Small Open Economy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(4), pages 604-22, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2012-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.