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Unanticipated vs. Anticipated Tax Reforms in a Two-Sector Open Economy

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  • Olivier Cardi

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  • Romain Restout

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Abstract

We use a two-sector neoclassical open economy model with traded and non-traded goods to investigate the effects of unanticipated and anticipated tax reforms. First, an unanticipated tax reform produces an expansion of GDP, labor, and investment, while an anticipated tax reform has opposite effects before the implementation of the labor tax cut. Quantitatively, if the traded sector is more capital intensive, GDP increases by 1.6 percentage points or declines by 2.7 percentage points after three years, depending on whether the tax cut is unanticipated or anticipated. Second, we find that GDP change masks a wide dispersion in sectoral output responses. As long as investment is both traded and non traded, a tax reform substantially raises the relative size of the non-traded sector after three years while traded output always drops. Third, a tax reform improves welfare in all scenarios, more so if the markup is endogenous, but less so if the shock is anticipated. Importantly, we find that welfare gains in a two-sector economy with capital accumulation and perfect access to external borrowing are between 39 % and 89 % higher than those in an economy without physical capital. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

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  • Olivier Cardi & Romain Restout, 2014. "Unanticipated vs. Anticipated Tax Reforms in a Two-Sector Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 373-406, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:25:y:2014:i:2:p:373-406
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-013-9285-5
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    10. Zheng, Liping & Severe, Sean, 2016. "Teaching the macroeconomic effects of tax cuts with a quasi-experiment," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 55-65.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non traded goods; Investment; Tax reform; Anticipation effects; Current account; F41; E62; E22; F32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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