IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/71336.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ignorance is bliss: Should a pension reform be announced?

Author

Listed:
  • Fedotenkov, Igor

Abstract

This paper studies whether a pension reform, namely a switch from a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) to a more-funded scheme should be announced. We show that such an announcement increases savings, leading to a decline in interest rates. Smaller returns to savings lead to higher losses for the first transitional generation, which suffers from the reform the most. On the other hand, higher savings by the first transitional generation lead to faster capital accumulation, which benefits younger generations. We argue that if a government cares about the agents with the most to lose, it may more beneficial not to announce such a reform.

Suggested Citation

  • Fedotenkov, Igor, 2016. "Ignorance is bliss: Should a pension reform be announced?," MPRA Paper 71336, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:71336
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/71336/1/MPRA_paper_71336.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Homburg, Stefan, 1990. "The Efficiency of Unfunded Pension Schemes," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 640-647.
    2. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2012. "Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 145-181, May.
    3. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    4. Olivier Cardi & Romain Restout, 2014. "Unanticipated vs. Anticipated Tax Reforms in a Two-Sector Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 373-406, April.
    5. Butler, Monika, 1999. "Anticipation effects of looming public-pension reforms," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 119-159, June.
    6. Carroll, Christopher D & Overland, Jody & Weil, David N, 1997. "Comparison Utility in a Growth Model," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 339-367, December.
    7. Heijdra, Ben J., 2017. "Foundations of Modern Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780198784135.
    8. Fedotenkov, I., 2012. "Pensions and ageing in a globalizing world. International spillover effects via trade and factor mobility," Other publications TiSEM 8830bc21-4138-4479-8459-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Maria I. Marika Santoro, 2006. "Early Announcement of a Public Pension Reform in Italy," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 96(5), pages 179-216, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hatcher, Michael, 2019. "Should a pension reform be announced? A reply," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1-1.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Olivier Cardi & Romain Restout, 2014. "Unanticipated vs. Anticipated Tax Reforms in a Two-Sector Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 373-406, April.
    2. Aronsson, Thomas & Johansson-Stenman, Olof, 2014. "Positional preferences in time and space: Optimal income taxation with dynamic social comparisons," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-23.
    3. Evangelos V. Dioikitopoulos & Stephen J. Turnovsky & Ronald Wendner, 2020. "Dynamic Status Effects, Savings, And Income Inequality," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(1), pages 351-382, February.
    4. Carroll, Christopher D., 2000. "Solving consumption models with multiplicative habits," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 67-77, July.
    5. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Nan-Kuang Chen, 2006. "Intrinsic Cycles of Land Price: A Simple Model," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 28(3), pages 293-320.
    6. Smith, William T., 2002. "Consumption and saving with habit formation and durability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 369-375, May.
    7. Havranek, Tomas & Rusnak, Marek & Sokolova, Anna, 2017. "Habit formation in consumption: A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 142-167.
    8. Constantin Chilarescu & Ioana Viasu, 2016. "A Closed-form Solution of a Two-sector Endogenous Growth Model with Habit Formation," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 112-127, June.
    9. Eckerstorfer, Paul & Wendner, Ronald, 2013. "Asymmetric and non-atmospheric consumption externalities, and efficient consumption taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 42-56.
    10. Andrew E. Clark & Paul Frijters & Michael A. Shields, 2006. "Income and happiness: Evidence, explanations and economic implications," PSE Working Papers halshs-00590436, HAL.
    11. Chan, Ying Tung, 2020. "Optimal emissions tax rates under habit formation and social comparisons," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    12. Hyeon O. Lee & Hyun Park, 2015. "Indeterminate Balanced Growth under Habit Persistence and Fiscal Policies," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 259-284, June.
    13. Sébastien Rouillon, 2017. "Cooperative and Noncooperative Extraction in a Common Pool with Habit Formation," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 468-491, September.
    14. Mauri Kotamäki, 2013. "The Pension Scheme Need Not Be Pay-As-You-Go: An Overlapping Generations Approach," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 56-71, Autumn.
    15. Park, Hyun, 2013. "Do habits generate endogenous fluctuations in a growing economy?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 54-68.
    16. Liu, Chia-ying & Chang, Juin-jen, 2011. "Keeping up with the Joneses, consumer ethnocentrism, and optimal taxation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1519-1525, July.
    17. Francisco Alvarez-Cuadrado, 2007. "Envy, leisure, and restrictions on working hours," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1286-1310, November.
    18. Otrok, Christopher, 2001. "On measuring the welfare cost of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-92, February.
    19. Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Aldo Rustichini, 2012. "Social Decision Theory: Choosing within and between Groups," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1591-1636.
    20. Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Monteiro, Goncalo, 2007. "Consumption externalities, production externalities, and efficient capital accumulation under time non-separable preferences," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 479-504, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pension reform; announcement; savings; interest rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:71336. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.