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Macroeconomic Regimes, Technological Shocks and Employment Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Tommaso Ferraresi

    (Università degli Studi di Firenze)

  • Andrea Roventini

    (Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM))

  • Willi Semmler

    (New School for Social Research)

Abstract

In this work we investigate the interrelations among technology, output and employment in the different states of the U.S. economy (recessions vs. expansions). More precisely, we estimate different threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) models with TFP, hours, and GDP, employing the latter as threshold variable, and we assess the ensuing generalized impulse responses of GDP and hours as to TFP shocks. We find that positive productivity shocks, while spurring GDP growth, display a negative effect on hours worked at least on impact, independently of the state of the economy. In the 1957-2011 period, the effects of productivity shocks on employment are abundantly negative in downturns, but they are not significantly different from zero in good times. However, the impact of TFP shocks in different business cycle regimes depends on the chosen sample: after the mid eighties (1984-2011), productivity shocks increase hours during recessions. Finally, we express and test some conjectures that might have caused the changes in the responses in different time periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Tommaso Ferraresi & Andrea Roventini & Willi Semmler, 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes, Technological Shocks and Employment Dynamics," Sciences Po publications 2016-19, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2beljp6noq9u6oh9p9agr8ugra
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technology shocks; Employment; Threshold vector autoregression; Generalized impulse response functions;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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