The Real Consequences of Financial Stress
We introduce a dynamic bankingâ€“macro model, which abstains from conventional meanâ€“ reversion assumptions and in whichâ€”similar to Brunnermeier and Sannikov (2010)â€”adverse assetâ€“price movements and their impact on risk premia and credit spreads can induce instabilities in the banking sector. To assess such phenomena empirically, we employ a multiâ€“regime vector autoregression (MRVAR) approach rather than conventional linear vector autoregressions. We conduct bivariate empirical analyses, using countryâ€“specific financialâ€“stress indices and industrial production, for the U.S., the UK and the four large euroâ€“area countries. Our MRVARâ€“based impulseâ€“response studies demonstrate that, compared to a linear specification, response profiles are dependent on the current state of the economy as well as the sign and size of shocks. Previous multiâ€“regimeâ€“based studies, focusing solely on the regimeâ€“dependence of responses, conclude that, during a highâ€“stress period, stressâ€“increasing shocks have more dramatic consequences for economic activity than during low stress. Conducting sizeâ€“dependent response analysis, we find that this holds only for small shocks and reverses when shocks become sufficiently large to induce immediate regime switches. Our findings also suggest that, in states of high financial stress, large negative shocks to financialâ€“stress have sizeable positive effects on real activity and support the idea of â€œunconventionalâ€ monetary policy measures in cases of extreme financial stress.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Troy Davig & Craig Hakkio, 2010. "What is the effect of financial stress on economic activity," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 35-62.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2012.
"A macroeconomic model with a financial sector,"
Working Paper Research
236, National Bank of Belgium.
- Yuliy Sannikov & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2010. "A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector," 2010 Meeting Papers 1114, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Yuliy Sannikov & Markus Brunnermeier, 2012. "A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector," 2012 Meeting Papers 507, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin, 2010.
"Macro risk premium and intermediary balance sheet quantities,"
428, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "Macro Risk Premium and Intermediary Balance Sheet Quantities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 58(1), pages 179-207, August.
- Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012.
"Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1996.
"Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
319., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 1998.
- Jesus Saurina, 2009. "Dynamic Provisioning," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10241, The World Bank.
- Jerome L. Stein, 2011.
"The Diversity of Debt Crises in Europe,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
3348, CESifo Group Munich.
- Jerome L. Stein, 2011. "The Diversity of Debt Crises in Europe," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(4), pages 44-51, December.
- Jerome L. Stein, 2011. "The Diversity of Debt Crises in Europe," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 31(2), pages 199-215, Spring/Su.
- Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2009.
"Credit spreads and monetary policy,"
385, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Björn van Roye, 2011. "Financial stress and economic activity in Germany and the Euro Area," Kiel Working Papers 1743, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Hubrich, Kirstin & Tetlow, Robert J., 2014.
"Financial stress and economic dynamics: the transmission of crises,"
Working Paper Series
1728, European Central Bank.
- Robert Tetlow & Kirstin Hubrich, 2013. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: The transmission of crises," 2013 Meeting Papers 571, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Kirstin Hubrich & Robert J. Tetlow, 2012. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: the transmission of crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-82, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Semmler, Willi & Bernard, Lucas, 2012.
"Boom–bust cycles: Leveraging, complex securities, and asset prices,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 442-465.
- Willi Semmler & Lucas Bernard, 2011. "Boom-Bust Cycles: Leveraging, Complex Securities, and Asset Prices," DEGIT Conference Papers c016_034, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007.
"Market liquidity and funding liquidity,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
24478, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 12939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brunnermeier, Markus K & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," CEPR Discussion Papers 6179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lasse Heje Pederson & Markus K Brunnermeier, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," FMG Discussion Papers dp580, Financial Markets Group.
- Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T. & Vermann, E. Katarina, 2012. "Disentangling diverse measures: a survey of financial stress indexes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 369-398.
- Ernst, Ekkehard & Semmler, Willi, 2010. "Global dynamics in a model with search and matching in labor and capital markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1651-1679, September.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973, March.
- John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, 08.
- Greenwald, Bruce C & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1993.
"Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 77-114, February.
- Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1988. "Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 2494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ehrmann , Michael & Ellison, Martin & Valla, Natacha, 2001.
"Regime-dependent impulse response functions in a Markov-switching vector autoregression model,"
Research Discussion Papers
11/2001, Bank of Finland.
- Ehrmann, Michael & Ellison, Martin & Valla, Natacha, 2003. "Regime-dependent impulse response functions in a Markov-switching vector autoregression model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 295-299, March.
- Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
- Nolan, Charles & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2008.
"Financial shocks and the US business cycle,"
SIRE Discussion Papers
2008-58, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Lall, Subir, 2011. "Financial stress and economic contractions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 78-97, June.
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999.
"The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics,
in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393
- Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mallick, Sushanta K. & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013.
"The real effects of financial stress in the Eurozone,"
International Review of Financial Analysis,
Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-17.
- Sushanta K. Mallick & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "The real effects of financial stress in the Euro zone," NIPE Working Papers 12/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Lars Grüne, 2005. "Default Risk, Asset Pricing, and Debt Control," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 3(1), pages 79-106.
- Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2012. "Regime dependence of the fiscal multiplier," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 502-522.
- repec:nys:sunysb:93-01 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 155-178, January.
- Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Gauti Eggertsson & Andrea Ferrero & Marco Del Negro, 2010. "The Great Escape? A Quantitative Evaluation of the Fed’s Non-Standard Policies," 2010 Meeting Papers 113, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Holló, Dániel & Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
- John Geanakoplos, 2009. "The Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1715R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 2010.
- Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
- Grune, Lars & Semmler, Willi, 2004. "Using dynamic programming with adaptive grid scheme for optimal control problems in economics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2427-2456, December.
- Gorton, Gary B., 2010. "Slapped by the Invisible Hand: The Panic of 2007," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199734153, March.
- Jokipii, Terhi & Monnin, Pierre, 2013.
"The impact of banking sector stability on the real economy,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1-16.
- Pierre Monnin & Terhi Jokipii, 2010. "The Impact of Banking Sector Stability on the Real Economy," Working Papers 2010-05, Swiss National Bank.
- Gary B. Gorton, 2009.
"Information, Liquidity, and the (Ongoing) Panic of 2007,"
NBER Working Papers
14649, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gary Gorton, 2009. "Information, Liquidity, and the (Ongoing) Panic of 2007," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 567-72, May.
- John Geanakoplos, 2010. "The Leverage Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 1-65 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert W. Dimand, 2005. "Dimand on the Corridor of Stability," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 185-199, 01.
- Mittnik, Stefan & Zadrozny, Peter A, 1993. "Asymptotic Distributions of Impulse Responses, Step Responses, and Variance Decompositions of Estimated Linear Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 857-70, July.
- Grüne, Lars & Semmler, Willi, 2008. "Asset pricing with loss aversion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3253-3274, October.
- repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
- Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2008. "Intermediary Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 14517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2013-011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RDC-Team)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.