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Les modèles d’équilibre général calculable à générations imbriquées : enjeux, méthodes et résultats

  • Jacques Le Cacheux

    (OFCE)

  • Vincent Touze

    (OFCE)

L’approche calculable de l’équilibre général a connu des progrès considérables, notamment grâce à la prise en compte de la dimension du temps et de la notion de génération. Cette branche particulière de la modélisation appliquée regroupe les modèles d’équilibre général calculable à générations imbriquées. Cet article propose d’en dresser un bilan. Au regard des tendances démographiques et des législations en vigueur, une discussion sur les enjeux d’une analyse en terme de génération est, tout d’abord, menée. Par la suite, le noyau théorique de ces modèles est présenté, avant de donner un inventaire des principaux travaux menés depuis le début des années 1980, ainsi que des techniques d’estimation et de simulation utilisées. Pour terminer, les principaux enseignements sur les conséquences des politiques économiques en matière de retraite, de fiscalité ou d’endettement public ainsi que des différentes évolutions crédibles de la démographie sont récapitulés.

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Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number info:hdl:2441/2091.

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Date of creation: Jan 2002
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Publication status: Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2002, pp.87-113
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2091
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