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Impact of the Syrian Refugee Influx on Turkish Native Workers: An Ethnic Enclave Approach

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  • Bagir, Yusuf

Abstract

Turkey received about 2.7 million refugees between 2011 and 2015. This paper examines the causal relationship between the Syrian refugee induced increase in labor supply and natives’ labor market outcomes in Turkey using the micro level Household Labor Force Surveys. The migration impact is analyzed in two distinct categories considering the motives behind the migration decision. The initial migration to the border regions is assumed to be completely exogenous and defined as the primary migration. Hence, a standard difference in differences strategy is employed to estimate the labor market impacts in those regions. On the other hand, migration from the primary regions towards the inner regions in Turkey (secondary migration) has suffered from the endogenous selection issues. To handle these concerns, I developed an instrumental variables estimation method following David Card (2009)’s ethnic enclave approach. I found statistically significant negative employment and wage effects on the low-skilled and less-experienced individuals in the primary migration analysis. The decline in the wages of informal workers is the main contributor of the negative wage effects. Secondary migration has no impact on the employment at all but there are statistically significant negative wage effects on the low-skilled and less-experienced workers.

Suggested Citation

  • Bagir, Yusuf, 2017. "Impact of the Syrian Refugee Influx on Turkish Native Workers: An Ethnic Enclave Approach," MPRA Paper 80803, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:80803
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/80803/1/MPRA_paper_80803.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cohen-Goldner, Sarit & Paserman, M. Daniele, 2011. "The dynamic impact of immigration on natives' labor market outcomes: Evidence from Israel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1027-1045.
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    3. George J. Borjas, 2009. "The Analytics of the Wage Effect of Immigration," NBER Working Papers 14796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre & van den Berg, Marcel & Hassink, Wolter, 2015. "The Impact of Refugee Crises on Host Labor Markets: The Case of the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 8841, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Card, David, 2001. "Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Labor Market Impacts of Higher Immigration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 22-64, January.
    6. Evren Ceritoglu & H. Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer & Huzeyfe Torun & Semih Tumen, 2017. "The impact of Syrian refugees on natives’ labor market outcomes in Turkey: evidence from a quasi-experimental design," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, December.
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    8. Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2016. "Rethinking The Effect Of Immigration On Wages," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 2, pages 35-80 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    11. Richard Williams, 2012. "Using the margins command to estimate and interpret adjusted predictions and marginal effects," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 12(2), pages 308-331, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Syrian Refugees; Turkey; Labor Economics; İnternational Economics; Migration Economics;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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