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Impact of the Syrian refugee influx on Turkish native workers : An ethnic enclave approach

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  • Yusuf Kenan Bagir

Abstract

Turkey received about 2.7 million Syrian refugees between 2011 and 2015. This paper examines the causal impact of this influx on the Turkish natives' labor market outcomes using the micro level annual Household Labor Force Surveys. The migration impact is analyzed in two distinct categories considering the motives behind the migration decision. The initial migration to the border regions is defined as the primary migration and a standard difference in differences strategy is employed to estimate the labor market impacts in those regions since the initial flow to the border regions was completely exogenous. The migration from the primary regions towards the inner regions, on the other hand, is subject to endogenous selection. Hence, I defined it as the secondary migration and developed an instrumental variables estimation method to address the selection bias following the Card (2009)'s ethnic enclave approach. I found statistically significant negative employment and wage effects on the low-skilled and less-experienced individuals in the primary migration analysis. The decline in the wages of informal workers is the main contributor of the negative wage effects. Secondary migration has no impact on the employment but there are statistically significant negative wage effects on the low-skilled and less-experienced workers.

Suggested Citation

  • Yusuf Kenan Bagir, 2018. "Impact of the Syrian refugee influx on Turkish native workers : An ethnic enclave approach," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 18(4), pages 129-147.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:18:y:2018:i:4:p:129-147
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    Cited by:

    1. Mevlude Akbulut‐Yuksel & Naci Mocan & Semih Tumen & Belgi Turan, 2024. "The crime effect of refugees," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 472-508, March.
    2. Fallah, Belal & Krafft, Caroline & Wahba, Jackline, 2019. "The impact of refugees on employment and wages in Jordan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 203-216.
    3. Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre & Torun, Huzeyfe, 2020. "Two and a half million Syrian refugees, tasks and capital intensity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Tumen, Semih, 2018. "The Impact of Low-Skill Refugees on Youth Education," IZA Discussion Papers 11869, IZA Network @ LISER.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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