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Predicting Bid-Ask Spreads Using Long Memory Autoregressive Conditional Poisson Models

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  • Axel Groß-Klußmann
  • Nikolaus Hautsch

Abstract

We introduce a long memory autoregressive conditional Poisson (LMACP) model to model highly persistent time series of counts. The model is applied to forecast quoted bid-ask spreads, a key parameter in stock trading operations. It is shown that the LMACP nicely captures salient features of bid-ask spreads like the strong autocorrelation and discreteness of observations. We discuss theoretical properties of LMACP models and evaluate rolling window forecasts of quoted bid-ask spreads for stocks traded at NYSE and NASDAQ. We show that Poisson time series models significantly outperform forecasts from ARMA, ARFIMA, ACD and FIACD models. The economic significance of our results is supported by the evaluation of a trade schedule. Scheduling trades according to spread forecasts we realize cost savings of up to 13 % of spread transaction costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Axel Groß-Klußmann & Nikolaus Hautsch, 2011. "Predicting Bid-Ask Spreads Using Long Memory Autoregressive Conditional Poisson Models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-044, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-044
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    2. Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Supper, Hendrik, 2013. "Forecasting liquidity-adjusted intraday Value-at-Risk with vine copulas," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3334-3350.
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    6. Gong, Yuting & Chen, Qiang & Liang, Jufang, 2018. "A mixed data sampling copula model for the return-liquidity dependence in stock index futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 586-598.
    7. Ying Chen & Wee Song Chua & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2019. "Forecasting limit order book liquidity supply–demand curves with functional autoregressive dynamics," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 1473-1489, September.
    8. Cattivelli, Luca & Pirino, Davide, 2019. "A SHARP model of bid–ask spread forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1211-1225.
    9. Ulrich Horst & Michael Kupper & Andrea Macrina & Christoph Mainberger, 2011. "Continuous Equilibrium under Base Preferences and Attainable Initial Endowments," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-082, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bid-ask spreads; forecasting; high-frequency data; stock market liquidity; count data time series; long memory Poisson autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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