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Beyond the Crisis: Prospects for Emerging Europe


  • Zsolt Darvas

    () (Institute of Economics Hungarian Academy of Sciences)


This paper assesses the impact of the 2008-09 global financial and economic crisis on the medium-term growth prospects of the countries of central and eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, which began an economic transition about two decades ago. We use cross-country growth regressions, putting special emphasis on a proper consideration of the crisis and robustness. We find that the crisis has had a major impact on the within-sample fit of the models used and that the positive impact of EU enlargement on growth is smaller than previous research has shown. The crisis has also altered the future growth prospects of the countries studied, even in the optimistic but unrealistic case of a return to pre-crisis capital inflows and credit booms.

Suggested Citation

  • Zsolt Darvas, 2011. "Beyond the Crisis: Prospects for Emerging Europe," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1103, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  • Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:1103

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jean Pisani-Ferry & Pavle Petrovic & Michael A Landesmann & Vladimir Gligorov & Daniel Daianu & Torbjörn Becker & Zsolt Darvas & André Sapir & Beatrice Weder di Mauro, . "Whither growth in central and eastern Europe? Policy lessons for an integrated Europe," Blueprints, Bruegel, number 453, November.
    2. Sebastian Edwards, 2008. "Globalization, Growth and Crises: The View from Latin America," NBER Working Papers 14034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Darvas, Zsolt, 2009. "Leveraged carry trade portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 944-957, May.
    4. Zsolt Darvas & Andrew K. Rose & Gyorgy Szapary, 2005. "Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 261-298 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth,in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677 Elsevier.
    6. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    7. Zsolt Darvas & Zoltan Schepp, 2009. "Long maturity forward rates of major currencies are stationary," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 1175-1181.
    8. Zsolt Darvas, 2008. "Estimation Bias and Inference in Overlapping Autoregressions: Implications for the Target-Zone Literature," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(1), pages 1-22, February.
    9. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 304, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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    Cited by:

    1. Judit Karsai, 2012. "Development of the Hungarian Venture Capital and Private Equity Industry over the Past Two Decades," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1201, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
    2. Zsombor Z. Méder & András Simonovits & János Vinczeb, 2012. "Tax Morale and Tax Evasion: Social Preferences and Bounded Rationality," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 171-188, September.
    3. Zsolt Darvas, 2011. "Exchange Rate Policy and Economic Growth after the Financial Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 1103, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    4. Kosta Josifidis & Radmila Dragutinović Mitrović & Olgica Ivančev, 2012. "Heterogeneity of Growth in the West Balkans and Emerging Europe: A Dynamic Panel Data Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(2), pages 157-183, May.

    More about this item


    crisis; economic growth; growth regressions; transition countries;

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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