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Beyond the Crisis: Prospects for Emerging Europe

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  • Zsolt Darvas

    (1] Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels, Belgium[2] Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budaörsi út 45, 1112 Budapest, Hungary[3] Corvinus University of Budapest, Fövám tér 8, 1093 Budapest, Hungary)

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of the 2008–2009 global financial and economic crisis on the medium-term growth prospects of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, which began an economic transition about two decades ago. We use cross-country growth regressions, putting special emphasis on a proper consideration of the crisis and robustness. We find that the crisis has had a major impact on the within-sample fit of the models used and that the positive impact of EU enlargement on growth is smaller than previous research has shown. The crisis has also altered the future growth prospects of the countries studied, even in the optimistic but unrealistic case of a return to pre-crisis capital inflows and credit booms.

Suggested Citation

  • Zsolt Darvas, 2011. "Beyond the Crisis: Prospects for Emerging Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 53(2), pages 261-290, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:53:y:2011:i:2:p:261-290
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zsombor Z. Méder & András Simonovits & János Vinczeb, 2012. "Tax Morale and Tax Evasion: Social Preferences and Bounded Rationality," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 171-188, September.
    2. Zsolt Darvas, 2011. "Exchange Rate Policy and Economic Growth after the Financial Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 1103, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    3. Iwasaki, Ichiro & Kočenda, Evžen & Shida, Yoshisada, 2021. "Distressed acquisitions: Evidence from European emerging markets," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 962-990.
    4. Leon Podkaminer, 2013. "Development Patterns of Central and East European Countries (in the course of transition and following EU accession)," wiiw Research Reports 388, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    5. Judit Karsai, 2012. "Development of the Hungarian Venture Capital and Private Equity Industry over the Past Two Decades," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1201, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    6. Zsolt Darvas, 2013. "The euro area's tightrope walk: debt and competitiveness in Italy and Spain," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1337, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    7. Darvas, Zsolt, 2015. "Does money matter in the euro area? Evidence from a new Divisia index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 123-126.
    8. Jozsef Moczar, 2016. "Noether's Theorem and the Lie Symmetries of Goodwin-model," Working Papers 1601, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    9. Zsombor Z. Meder & Andras Simonovits & Janos Vincze, 2012. "Tax Morale and Tax Evasion: Social Preferences and Bounded Rationality," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1203, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    10. Kosta Josifidis & Radmila Dragutinović Mitrović & Olgica Ivančev, 2012. "Heterogeneity of Growth in the West Balkans and Emerging Europe: A Dynamic Panel Data Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(2), pages 157-183, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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