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Beyond the Crisis: Prospects for Emerging Europe

  • Zsolt Darvas

    (1] Bruegel, Rue de la Charit� 33, 1210 Brussels, Belgium[2] Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Buda�rsi �t 45, 1112 Budapest, Hungary[3] Corvinus University of Budapest, F�v�m t�r 8, 1093 Budapest, Hungary)

This paper assesses the impact of the 2008–2009 global financial and economic crisis on the medium-term growth prospects of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, which began an economic transition about two decades ago. We use cross-country growth regressions, putting special emphasis on a proper consideration of the crisis and robustness. We find that the crisis has had a major impact on the within-sample fit of the models used and that the positive impact of EU enlargement on growth is smaller than previous research has shown. The crisis has also altered the future growth prospects of the countries studied, even in the optimistic but unrealistic case of a return to pre-crisis capital inflows and credit booms.

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Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal Comparative Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 53 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 261-290

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Handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:53:y:2011:i:2:p:261-290
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  1. Jean Pisani-Ferry & Pavle Petrovic & Michael A Landesmann & Vladimir Gligorov & Daniel Daianu & Torbjörn Becker & Zsolt Darvas & André Sapir & Beatrice Weder di Mauro, . "Whither growth in central and eastern Europe? Policy lessons for an integrated Europe," Blueprints, Bruegel, number 453, 5.
  2. Darvas, Zsolt & Szapáry, György, 2005. "Business Cycle Sychronization in the Enlarged EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 5179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," Working Papers 0801, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
  4. Zsolt Darvas, 2008. "Leveraged Carry Trade Portfolios," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0822, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  5. Zsolt Darvas & Andrew K. Rose & Gyorgy Szapary, 2005. "Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 261-298 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Sebastian Edwards, 2008. "Globalization, Growth and Crises: The View from Latin America," NBER Working Papers 14034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Zsolt Darvas, 2007. "Estimation Bias and Inference in Overlapping Autoregressions: Implications for the Target Zone Literature," Working Papers 0701, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
  8. Zsolt Darvas & Zoltan Schepp, 2009. "Long maturity forward rates of major currencies are stationary," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 1175-1181.
  9. Johnson, Paul & Durlauf, Steven N & Temple, Johnathan R. W., 2004. "Growth Econometrics," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 61, Vassar College Department of Economics.
    • Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677 Elsevier.
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