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Beyond the crisis: prospects for emerging Europe

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  • Zsolt Darvas

Abstract

This working paper by Zsolt Darvas assesses the impact of the 2008-09 global financial and economic crisis on the medium-term growth prospects of CEES countries, the Caucasus and Central Asia, which starting their economic transition about twenty years ago. Evidence shows that the crisis has had a major impact on the within-sample fit of the models used and that the positive impact of EU enlargement on growth is smaller than previous research has shown. The crisis has also altered the future growth prospects of the countries studied, even in the optimistic but unrealistic case of a return to pre-crisis capital inflows and credit booms.A version of this publication was also released as an article for Comparative Economic Studies (2011) 53, 261–290; published online 28 April 2011

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  • Zsolt Darvas, 2011. "Beyond the crisis: prospects for emerging Europe," Working Papers 466, Bruegel.
  • Handle: RePEc:bre:wpaper:466
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean Pisani-Ferry & Pavle Petrovic & Michael A Landesmann & Vladimir Gligorov & Daniel Daianu & Torbjörn Becker & Zsolt Darvas & André Sapir & Beatrice Weder di Mauro, . "Whither growth in central and eastern Europe? Policy lessons for an integrated Europe," Blueprints, Bruegel, number 453, November.
    2. Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth,in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677 Elsevier.
    3. Sebastian Edwards, 2008. "Globalization, Growth and Crises: The View from Latin America," NBER Working Papers 14034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 304, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    5. Zsolt Darvas & Andrew K. Rose & Gyorgy Szapary, 2005. "Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 261-298 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, pages 1-19.
    7. Darvas, Zsolt, 2009. "Leveraged carry trade portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 944-957, May.
    8. Zsolt Darvas & Zoltan Schepp, 2009. "Long maturity forward rates of major currencies are stationary," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 1175-1181.
    9. Zsolt Darvas, 2008. "Estimation Bias and Inference in Overlapping Autoregressions: Implications for the Target-Zone Literature," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, pages 1-22.
    10. Azacis, Helmuts & Gillman, Max, 2010. "Flat tax reform: The Baltics 2000-2007," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 692-708, June.
    11. Zsolt Darvas & Zoltan Schepp, 2009. "Long maturity forward rates of major currencies are stationary," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 1175-1181.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zsolt Darvas, 2011. "A tale of three countries: recovery after banking crises," Policy Contributions 663, Bruegel.
    2. Zsombor Z. Méder & András Simonovits & János Vinczeb, 2012. "Tax Morale and Tax Evasion: Social Preferences and Bounded Rationality," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, pages 171-188.
    3. Zsombor Z. Méder & András Simonovits & János Vinczeb, 2012. "Tax Morale and Tax Evasion: Social Preferences and Bounded Rationality," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, pages 171-188.
    4. Zsolt Darvas, 2011. "Exchange Rate Policy and Economic Growth after the Financial Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 1103, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    5. Kosta Josifidis & Radmila Dragutinović Mitrović & Olgica Ivančev, 2012. "Heterogeneity of Growth in the West Balkans and Emerging Europe: A Dynamic Panel Data Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, pages 157-183.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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