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Beyond the crisis: prospects for emerging Europe

  • Zsolt Darvas

This working paper by Zsolt Darvas assesses the impact of the 2008-09 global financial and economic crisis on the medium-term growth prospects of CEES countries, the Caucasus and Central Asia, which starting their economic transition about twenty years ago. Evidence shows that the crisis has had a major impact on the within-sample fit of the models used and that the positive impact of EU enlargement on growth is smaller than previous research has shown. The crisis has also altered the future growth prospects of the countries studied, even in the optimistic but unrealistic case of a return to pre-crisis capital inflows and credit booms. A version of this publication was also released as an article for Comparative Economic Studies (2011) 53, 261â??290; published online 28 April 2011

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Paper provided by Bruegel in its series Working Papers with number 466.

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Date of creation: Jan 2011
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Handle: RePEc:bre:wpaper:466
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  1. Zsolt Darvas & Andrew K. Rose & Gyorgy Szapary, 2005. "Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 261-298 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Zsolt Darvas & Zoltan Schepp, 2009. "Long maturity forward rates of major currencies are stationary," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 1175-1181.
  3. Sebastian Edwards, 2008. "Globalization, Growth and Crises: The View from Latin America," NBER Working Papers 14034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Zsolt Darvas, 2007. "Estimation Bias and Inference in Overlapping Autoregressions: Implications for the Target Zone Literature," Working Papers 0701, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
  5. Darvas, Zsolt & Szapáry, György, 2005. "Business Cycle Sychronization in the Enlarged EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 5179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677 Elsevier.
  7. Zsolt Darvas, 2008. "Leveraged carry trade portfolios," Working Papers 0802, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest, revised 18 Jun 2008.
  8. Zsolt Darvas & Gyorgy Szapary, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0824, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  9. Jean Pisani-Ferry & Pavle Petrovic & Michael A Landesmann & Vladimir Gligorov & Daniel Daianu & Torbjörn Becker & Zsolt Darvas & André Sapir & Beatrice Weder di Mauro, . "Whither growth in central and eastern Europe? Policy lessons for an integrated Europe," Blueprints, Bruegel, number 453, November.
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