Working Paper 197 - Estimating the Economic Cost of Fragility in Africa
A fiscally constrained global environment has heightened the interest of development partners in the economic cost of fragility. State fragility and civil war have become a central topic in the development debate and Africa is a continent particularly affected by fragility. A stronger engagement with fragile states is one of three areas of special emphasis in the African Development Bank’s Ten Year Strategy 2014-2022.This paper evaluates and quantifies the economic costs of fragility using two approaches: a simple convergence model and synthetic counterfactual approach. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to use the synthetic counterfactual approach to evaluate the economic costs of fragility in Africa. Our estimations show that fragile states lose an opportunity to double their initial GDP per capita after a period of 20 years. Second, the synthetic counterfactual shows that in 20 years of fragility, the cumulative economic cost of fragility in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Burundi amounted toUS$31.8 billion, US$16.0 billion and US$12.8 billion respectively. Our simulations suggest, for example, that if Central Africa Republic, Liberia and Sierra Leone had growth rates equivalent to those of the synthetic country in the model in 2010, it would take 34.5 years,19.2 years and 20.8 years respectively to recover the level of GDP per capita had these countries not been exposed to fragility.
|Date of creation:||05 Mar 2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 15 Avenue du Ghana P.O.Box 323-1002 Tunis-Belvedère, Tunisia|
Phone: (+216) 71 10 39 00
Fax: (225) 21.77.53
Web page: http://www.afdb.org/en/knowledge/publications/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Richard Akresh & Sonia Bhalotra & Marinella Leone & Una Osili, 2011.
"War and Stature: Growing Up During the Nigerian Civil War,"
The Centre for Market and Public Organisation
11/279, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
- Richard Akresh & Sonia Bhalotra & Marinella Leone & Una Okonkwo Osili, 2012. "War and Stature: Growing Up during the Nigerian Civil War," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 273-77, May.
- Richard Akresh & Sonia Bhalotra & Marinella Leone & Una Osili, 2012. "War and Stature: Growing Up During the Nigerian Civil War," HiCN Working Papers 113, Households in Conflict Network.
- Akresh, Richard & Bhalotra, Sonia R. & Leone, Marinella & Osili, Una O., 2011. "War and Stature: Growing Up During the Nigerian Civil War," IZA Discussion Papers 6194, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Johnson, Paul & Durlauf, Steven N & Temple, Johnathan R. W., 2004.
Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series
61, Vassar College Department of Economics.
- Hausken, Kjell & Ncube, Mthuli, 2012. "Production and Conflict in Risky Elections," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2012/14, University of Stavanger.
- Timothy Besley & Hannes Mueller, 2009.
"Estimating the peace dividend: the impact of violence on house prices in Northern Ireland,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
25427, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Timothy Besley & Hannes Mueller, 2012. "Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 810-33, April.
- Timothy Besley & Hannes Mueller, 2009. "Estimating the Peace Dividend:The Impact of Violence on HousePrices in Northern Ireland," STICERD - Economic Organisation and Public Policy Discussion Papers Series 011, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Tim Besley & Hannes Mueller, 2009. "Estimating the peace dividend: the impact of violence on house prices in Northern Ireland," IFS Working Papers W09/18, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Venieris, Yiannis P & Gupta, Dipak K, 1986. "Income Distribution and Sociopolitical Instability as Determinants of Savings: A Cross-sectional Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 873-83, August.
- Chauvet, Lisa & Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 2007. "The Cost of Failing States and the Limits to Sovereignty," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Daron Acemoglu & Tarek A. Hassan & James A. Robinson, 2010.
"Social Structure and Development: A Legacy of the Holocaust in Russia,"
NBER Working Papers
16083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daron Acemoglu & Tarek A. Hassan & James A. Robinson, 2011. "Social Structure and Development: A Legacy of the Holocaust in Russia," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(2), pages 895-946.
- Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of Californiaâ€™s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:2105. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Adeleke Oluwole Salami)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.