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Estimation Bias and Inference in Overlapping Autoregressions: Implications for the Target‐Zone Literature

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  • Zsolt Darvas

Abstract

Samples with overlapping observations are used for the study of uncovered interest rate parity, the predictability of long‐run stock returns and the credibility of exchange rate target zones. This paper quantifies the biases in parameter estimation and size distortions of hypothesis tests of overlapping linear and polynomial autoregressions, which have been used in target‐zone applications. We show that both estimation bias and size distortions of hypothesis tests are generally larger, if the amount of overlap is larger, the sample size is smaller, and autoregressive root of the data‐generating process is closer to unity. In particular, the estimates are biased in a way that makes it more likely that the predictions of the Bertola–Svensson model will be supported. Size distortions of various tests also turn out to be substantial even when using a heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation‐consistent covariance matrix.

Suggested Citation

  • Zsolt Darvas, 2008. "Estimation Bias and Inference in Overlapping Autoregressions: Implications for the Target‐Zone Literature," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(1), pages 1-22, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:70:y:2008:i:1:p:1-22
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2007.00488.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària & Carlos Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero, 2013. "Polynomial Regressions and Nonsense Inference," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(3), pages 1-13, November.
    2. Zsolt Darvas & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2010. "The Threat of 'Currency Wars': a European Perspective," Working Papers 1006, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    3. Zsombor Z. Méder & András Simonovits & János Vinczeb, 2012. "Tax Morale and Tax Evasion: Social Preferences and Bounded Rationality," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 171-188, September.
    4. Zsolt Darvas, 2011. "Beyond the Crisis: Prospects for Emerging Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 53(2), pages 261-290, June.
    5. Zsolt Darvas, 2010. "The case for reforming euro area entry criteria," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 32(2), pages 195-219, December.
    6. Wagner, Martin, 2012. "The Phillips unit root tests for polynomials of integrated processes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 299-303.
    7. Zsolt DARVAS & Zoltán SCHEPP, "undated". "Forecasting Exchange Rates of Major Currencies with Long Maturity Forward Rates," EcoMod2008 23800026, EcoMod.
    8. repec:eee:ecolet:v:176:y:2019:i:c:p:109-113 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Shiu‐Sheng Chen & Yu‐Hsi Chou, 2010. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from Long‐Horizon Regression Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(1), pages 63-88, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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