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Kevin Kotze

Personal Details

First Name:Kevin
Middle Name:
Last Name:Kotze
Suffix:
RePEc Short-ID:pko495
https://www.economodel.com/

Affiliation

(99%) School of Economics
Faculty of Commerce
University of Cape Town

Cape Town, South Africa
http://www.commerce.uct.ac.za/economics/

: (21) 650-2723
(21) 650-2854
Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701
RePEc:edi:seuctza (more details at EDIRC)

(1%) Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA)

Cape Town, South Africa
http://www.econrsa.org/

: 021 671-3980
+27 21 671 3912
Newlands on Main, F0301 3rd Floor Mariendahl House, cnr Campground and Main Rds, Claremont, 7700 Cape Town
RePEc:edi:ersacza (more details at EDIRC)

Research output

as
Jump to: Working papers Articles

Working papers

  1. Kevin Kotze, 2017. "Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activity in South Africa," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2017-02, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
  2. Francis Leni Anguyo & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Financial Frictions and Structural Changes: A Markov-Switching DSGE approach," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2017-05, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
  3. Francis Leni Anguyo & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Financial Frictions in a Small Open-Economy Model for Uganda," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2017-01, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
  4. Francis Leni Anguyo & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2017. "Inflation Dynamics in Uganda: A Quantile Regression Approach," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2017-07, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
  5. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2016. "Forecasting South African Macroeconomic Variables with a Markov-Switching Small Open-Economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 201603, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  6. Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2015. "The Role of Oil Prices in the Forecasts of South African Interest Rates: A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 201531, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  7. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2013. "Forecasting South African Macroeconomic Data with a Nonlinear DSGE Model," Working Papers 201313, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  8. Stan Du Plessis & Kevin Kotze, 2012. "Trends and Structural Changes in South African Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 297, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  9. Sami Alpanda & Kevin Kotze & Geoffrey Woglom, 2010. "Should Central Banks of Small Open Economies Respond to Exchange Rate Fluctuations? The Case of South Africa," Working Papers 174, Economic Research Southern Africa.

Articles

  1. Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2017. "The role of oil prices in the forecasts of South African interest rates: A Bayesian approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 270-278.
  2. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotzé, 2017. "Forecasting South African macroeconomic variables with a Markov-switching small open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 117-135, August.
  3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2015. "Forecasting macroeconomic data for an emerging market with a nonlinear DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 215-228.
  4. Stan Plessis & Gideon Rand & Kevin Kotzé, 2015. "Measuring Core Inflation in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(4), pages 527-548, December.
  5. Haakon Kavli & Kevin Kotzé, 2014. "Spillovers in Exchange Rates and the Effects of Global Shocks on Emerging Market Currencies," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(2), pages 209-238, June.
  6. Sami Alpanda & Kevin Kotzé & Geoffrey Woglom, 2011. "Forecasting Performance Of An Estimated Dsge Model For The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(1), pages 50-67, March.
  7. Sami Alpanda & Kevin Kotzé & Geoffrey Woglom, 2010. "The Role Of The Exchange Rate In A New Keynesian Dsge Model For The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(2), pages 170-191, June.

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Working papers

  1. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2016. "Forecasting South African Macroeconomic Variables with a Markov-Switching Small Open-Economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 201603, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in South Africa under Inflation Targeting: Evidence from a Time-Varying Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201653, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

  2. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2013. "Forecasting South African Macroeconomic Data with a Nonlinear DSGE Model," Working Papers 201313, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Rangan Gupta & Patrick T. Kanda & Mampho P. Modise & Alessia Paccagnini, 2015. "DSGE model-based forecasting of modelled and nonmodelled inflation variables in South Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(3), pages 207-221, January.
    2. Patrick T. kanda & Mehmet Balcilar & Pejman Bahramian & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Forecasting South African Inflation Using Non-Linear Models: A Weighted Loss-Based Evaluation," Working Papers 201416, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Rangan Gupta & Patrick Kanda & Mampho Modise & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "DGSE Model-Based Forecasting of Modeled and Non-Modeled Inflation Variables in South Africa," Working Papers 259, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2013.
    4. Sergey Ivashchenko, 2014. "Forecasting in a Non-Linear DSGE Model," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series Ec-02/14, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics.
    5. Annari de Waal & Renee van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Do we need a global VAR model to forecast inflation and output in South Africa?," Working Papers 201346, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

  3. Stan Du Plessis & Kevin Kotze, 2012. "Trends and Structural Changes in South African Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 297, Economic Research Southern Africa.

    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2016. "Forecasting South African Macroeconomic Variables with a Markov-Switching Small Open-Economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2016-05, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    2. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in South Africa under Inflation Targeting: Evidence from a Time-Varying Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201653, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

  4. Sami Alpanda & Kevin Kotze & Geoffrey Woglom, 2010. "Should Central Banks of Small Open Economies Respond to Exchange Rate Fluctuations? The Case of South Africa," Working Papers 174, Economic Research Southern Africa.

    Cited by:

    1. Aron, Janine & Farrell, Greg & Muellbauer, John & Sinclair, Peter, 2010. "Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy in South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 8153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Rangan Gupta & Patrick T. Kanda & Mampho P. Modise & Alessia Paccagnini, 2015. "DSGE model-based forecasting of modelled and nonmodelled inflation variables in South Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(3), pages 207-221, January.
    3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2015. "Forecasting macroeconomic data for an emerging market with a nonlinear DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 215-228.
    4. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2013. "Forecasting South African Macroeconomic Data with a Nonlinear DSGE Model," Working Papers 201313, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Rudi Steinbach & Stan du Plessis & Ben Smit, 2014. "Monetary policy and financial shocks in an empirical small open-economy DSGE model," EcoMod2014 7194, EcoMod.
    6. Stan du Plessis & Ben Smit & Rudi Steinbach, 2014. "Working Paper – WP/14/04- A medium-sized open economy DSGE model of South Africa," Working Papers 6319, South African Reserve Bank.
    7. Paetz, Michael & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Stock price dynamics and the business cycle in an estimated DSGE model for South Africa," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 166-182.
    8. Rangan Gupta & Patrick Kanda & Mampho Modise & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "DGSE Model-Based Forecasting of Modeled and Non-Modeled Inflation Variables in South Africa," Working Papers 259, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2013.
    9. Francis Leni Anguyo & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Financial Frictions in a Small Open-Economy Model for Uganda," Working Papers 201710, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes, 2014. "Monetary Regime Switches and Central Bank Preferences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(8), pages 1591-1626, December.

Articles

  1. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotzé, 2017. "Forecasting South African macroeconomic variables with a Markov-switching small open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 117-135, August. See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2015. "Forecasting macroeconomic data for an emerging market with a nonlinear DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 215-228.

    Cited by:

    1. Niu, Linlin & Xu, Xiu & Chen, Ying, 2017. "An adaptive approach to forecasting three key macroeconomic variables for transitional China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 201-213.
    2. Nalban, Valeriu, 2018. "Forecasting with DSGE models: What frictions are important?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 190-204.
    3. Duncan, Roberto & Martinez-Garcia, Enrique, 2018. "New Perspectives on Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Market Economies: An Empirical Assessment," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 338, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

  3. Stan Plessis & Gideon Rand & Kevin Kotzé, 2015. "Measuring Core Inflation in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(4), pages 527-548, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Francis Leni Anguyo & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotzé, 2017. "Inflation Dynamics in Uganda: A Quantile Regression Approach," Working Papers 201772, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2016. "Forecasting South African Macroeconomic Variables with a Markov-Switching Small Open-Economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2016-05, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    3. Franz Ruch & Stan du Plessis, 2015. "Working Paper – WP/15/05- Second-Round Effects from Food and Energy Prices- an SBVAR approach," Working Papers 7008, South African Reserve Bank.

  4. Sami Alpanda & Kevin Kotzé & Geoffrey Woglom, 2011. "Forecasting Performance Of An Estimated Dsge Model For The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(1), pages 50-67, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Gupta, Rangan & Steinbach, Rudi, 2013. "A DSGE-VAR model for forecasting key South African macroeconomic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 19-33.
    2. Rangan Gupta & Patrick T. Kanda & Mampho P. Modise & Alessia Paccagnini, 2015. "DSGE model-based forecasting of modelled and nonmodelled inflation variables in South Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(3), pages 207-221, January.
    3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2015. "Forecasting macroeconomic data for an emerging market with a nonlinear DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 215-228.
    4. Mirriam Chitalu Chama-Chiliba & Rangan Gupta & Nonophile Nkambule & Naomi Tlotlego, 2011. "Forecasting Key Macroeconomic Variables of the South African Economy Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Working Papers 201132, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei & Mark Wohar, 2015. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Predict Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility? Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test," Working Papers 201599, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2013. "Forecasting South African Macroeconomic Data with a Nonlinear DSGE Model," Working Papers 201313, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Marcin Kolasa & Michał Rubaszek, 2018. "Does the foreign sector help forecast domestic variables in DSGE models?," NBP Working Papers 282, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    8. Marcin Kolasa & Michal Rubaszek, 2016. "Does foreign sector help forecast domestic variables in DSGE models?," EcoMod2016 9393, EcoMod.
    9. Patrick T. kanda & Mehmet Balcilar & Pejman Bahramian & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Forecasting South African Inflation Using Non-Linear Models: A Weighted Loss-Based Evaluation," Working Papers 201416, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Stan du Plessis & Ben Smit & Rudi Steinbach, 2014. "Working Paper – WP/14/04- A medium-sized open economy DSGE model of South Africa," Working Papers 6319, South African Reserve Bank.
    11. Paetz, Michael & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Stock price dynamics and the business cycle in an estimated DSGE model for South Africa," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 166-182.
    12. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2016. "Forecasting South African Macroeconomic Variables with a Markov-Switching Small Open-Economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2016-05, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    13. Hove, Seedwell & Touna Mama, Albert & Tchana Tchana, Fulbert, 2015. "Monetary policy and commodity terms of trade shocks in emerging market economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 53-71.
    14. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Adél Bosch & Rangan Gupta & Francois Stofberg, 2013. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of non-linear models of real exchange rate behaviour: The case of the South African Rand," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 10(1), pages 121-148, April.
    15. Riane de Bruyn & Rangan Gupta & Renee van Eyden, 2013. "Forecasting The Rand-Dollar And Rand-Pound Exchange Rates Using Dynamic Model Averaging," Working Papers 201307, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    16. Fadia Al Hajj & Gilles Dufrénot & Kimiko Sugimoto & Romain Wolf, 2015. "Reactions to Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes: Inflation Targeting Versus Flexible Currency Board in Sub-Saharan Africa," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 53(4), pages 237-271, December.
    17. Charl Jooste & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2017. "The Macroeconomics Effects of Government Spending Under Fiscal Foresight," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(1), pages 68-85, March.
    18. Rangan Gupta & Patrick Kanda & Mampho Modise & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "DGSE Model-Based Forecasting of Modeled and Non-Modeled Inflation Variables in South Africa," Working Papers 259, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2013.
    19. Riané de Bruyn & Rangan Gupta & Reneé van Eyden, 2015. "Can We Beat the Random-Walk Model for the South African Rand–U.S. Dollar and South African Rand–UK Pound Exchange Rates? Evidence from Dynamic Model Averaging," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(3), pages 502-524, May.
    20. Hyeyoen Kim & Doojin Ryu, 2013. "Forecasting Exchange Rate from Combination Taylor Rule Fundamental," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S4), pages 81-92, September.
    21. Poghosyan, K., 2012. "Structural and reduced-form modeling and forecasting with application to Armenia," Other publications TiSEM ad1a24c3-15e6-4f04-b338-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    22. Fadia Al Hajj & Gilles Dufr??not, & Kimiko Sugimoto & Romain Wolf, 2013. "Reactions to Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes: Inflation Targeting Versus Flexible Currency Board in Ghana, South Africa and the WAEMU," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1062, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    23. Stan Du Plessis & Kevin Kotze, 2012. "Trends and Structural Changes in South African Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 297, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    24. Annari de Waal & Renee van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Do we need a global VAR model to forecast inflation and output in South Africa?," Working Papers 201346, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

  5. Sami Alpanda & Kevin Kotzé & Geoffrey Woglom, 2010. "The Role Of The Exchange Rate In A New Keynesian Dsge Model For The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(2), pages 170-191, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Marco Airaudo & Edward F Buffie & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2016. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 16/55, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Rangan Gupta & Patrick T. Kanda & Mampho P. Modise & Alessia Paccagnini, 2015. "DSGE model-based forecasting of modelled and nonmodelled inflation variables in South Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(3), pages 207-221, January.
    3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2015. "Forecasting macroeconomic data for an emerging market with a nonlinear DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 215-228.
    4. Stan du Plessis & Ben Smit & Rudi Steinbach, 2014. "Working Paper – WP/14/04- A medium-sized open economy DSGE model of South Africa," Working Papers 6319, South African Reserve Bank.
    5. Paetz, Michael & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Stock price dynamics and the business cycle in an estimated DSGE model for South Africa," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 166-182.
    6. Hove, Seedwell & Touna Mama, Albert & Tchana Tchana, Fulbert, 2015. "Monetary policy and commodity terms of trade shocks in emerging market economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 53-71.
    7. Rangan Gupta & Patrick Kanda & Mampho Modise & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "DGSE Model-Based Forecasting of Modeled and Non-Modeled Inflation Variables in South Africa," Working Papers 259, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2013.
    8. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar Author-Name-First Mehmet & Adel Bosch & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Housing and the Business Cycle in South Africa," Working Papers 15-22, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    9. Alun H. Thomas, 2012. "Exchange Rate and Foreign Interest Rate Linkages for Sub-Saharan Africa Floaters," IMF Working Papers 12/208, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Rangan Gupta & Rudi Steinbach, 2010. "Forecasting Key Macroeconomic Variables of the South African Economy: A Small Open Economy New Keynesian DSGE-VAR Model," Working Papers 201019, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    11. Sami Alpanda & Kevin Kotzé & Geoffrey Woglom, 2011. "Forecasting Performance Of An Estimated Dsge Model For The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(1), pages 50-67, March.
    12. Buffie, Edward F. & Airaudo, M. & Zanna, Felipe, 2018. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate management in less developed countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 159-184.

More information

Research fields, statistics, top rankings, if available.

Statistics

Access and download statistics for all items

Co-authorship network on CollEc

NEP Fields

NEP is an announcement service for new working papers, with a weekly report in each of many fields. This author has had 13 papers announced in NEP. These are the fields, ordered by number of announcements, along with their dates. If the author is listed in the directory of specialists for this field, a link is also provided.
  1. NEP-MAC: Macroeconomics (12) 2010-05-15 2012-07-14 2013-03-16 2015-06-05 2016-01-29 2016-12-04 2017-02-26 2017-02-26 2017-04-30 2017-06-25 2017-06-25 2017-11-12. Author is listed
  2. NEP-DGE: Dynamic General Equilibrium (6) 2013-03-16 2016-01-29 2016-12-04 2017-02-26 2017-04-30 2017-06-25. Author is listed
  3. NEP-MON: Monetary Economics (5) 2010-05-15 2017-02-26 2017-02-26 2017-06-25 2017-11-12. Author is listed
  4. NEP-CBA: Central Banking (3) 2010-05-15 2017-06-25 2017-11-12
  5. NEP-FOR: Forecasting (3) 2013-03-16 2015-06-05 2016-12-04
  6. NEP-AFR: Africa (2) 2010-05-15 2012-07-14
  7. NEP-ORE: Operations Research (2) 2016-01-29 2017-06-25
  8. NEP-ENE: Energy Economics (1) 2015-06-05
  9. NEP-IFN: International Finance (1) 2010-05-15
  10. NEP-OPM: Open Economy Macroeconomics (1) 2010-05-15

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