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Reactions to Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes: Inflation Targeting Versus Flexible Currency Board in Ghana, South Africa and the WAEMU

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  • Fadia Al Hajj

    ()

  • Gilles Dufr??not,

    ()

  • Kimiko Sugimoto

    ()

  • Romain Wolf

    ()

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to examine the monetary policy actions through which the central banks in the Sub-Saharan African countries have searched to eliminate the negative impacts of the shocks facing their economies. We compare two types of monetary policy regimes: a currency board regime (in the CFA zone countries) and an inflation targeting policy regime (in Ghana and South Africa). We compare the properties of both policies when the central banks respond to three negative shocks hitting the economies: a recessionary demand shock, a supply shock increasing inflation and a negative fiscal shock. We propose an FPAS model (forecasting and monetary policy analysis system) that extends the usual FPAS models used in the literature to evaluate the impact of several policies in response to different types of exogenous shocks. We find that both policies are inappropriate to help the economies exiting from the effects of negative demand shocks (the adjustment relies mainly on fiscal policy), both are essential when negative shocks to primary balance occur (fiscal policy aggravates the negative effects of the shocks), while inflation targeting dominates the currency board regime as a strategy to cope with positive shocks to inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Fadia Al Hajj & Gilles Dufr??not, & Kimiko Sugimoto & Romain Wolf, 2013. "Reactions to Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes: Inflation Targeting Versus Flexible Currency Board in Ghana, South Africa and the WAEMU," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1062, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2013-1062
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    File URL: http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/133082/1/wp1062.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jihad Dagher & Jan Gottschalk & Rafael A Portillo, 2010. "Oil Windfalls in Ghana; A DSGE Approach," IMF Working Papers 10/116, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    3. Yasser Abdih & Charalambos Tsangarides, 2010. "FEER for the CFA franc," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(16), pages 2009-2029.
    4. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
    5. Lledó, Victor & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2013. "Fiscal Policy Implementation in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 79-91.
    6. Oral Williams & Olumuyiwa S Adedeji, 2007. "Fiscal Reaction Functions in the CFA Zone; An Analytical Perspective," IMF Working Papers 07/232, International Monetary Fund.
    7. David Fielding & Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, 2012. "Does one size fit all? Modelling macroeconomic linkages in the West African Economic and Monetary Union," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 45-70, February.
    8. repec:nbr:nberre:0126 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    11. Philippe Burger & Ian Stuart & Charl Jooste & Alfredo Cuevas, 2012. "Fiscal Sustainability And The Fiscal Reaction Function For South Africa: Assessment Of The Past And Future Policy Applications," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 80(2), pages 209-227, June.
    12. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-223, May.
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    15. Kerstin Gerling & Carlos Fernandez Valdovinos, 2011. "Inflation Uncertainty and Relative Price Variability in WAEMU Countries," IMF Working Papers 11/59, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Gilles Dufrénot, 2011. "Monetary autonomy in the West African countries: What do the policy rules tell us?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 63-81, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ikechukwu Kelikume & Olaniyi Evans, 2015. "Inflation Targeting As A Possible Monetary Framework For Nigeria," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 9(5), pages 71-81.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation target; currency board; African countries;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)

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