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Inflation Targeting As A Possible Monetary Framework For Nigeria

Author

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  • Ikechukwu Kelikume
  • Olaniyi Evans

Abstract

One of the issues facing Nigeria today is the choice among two nominal anchors: exchange rate pegging or inflation targeting. The incessant increase in interest rates, exchange rates, money supply and domestic credit have all accumulated, leading to persistent inflation in Nigeria. At this instant, it is pertinent to look for another nominal anchor to keep inflation in check because the present exchange rate pegging seems useless. This groundbreaking study, in an effort to do this, examines inflation targeting as a possible monetary framework for Nigeria, using time series data and with the aid of Granger Causality test and impulse response functions. The empirical results show evidence that inflation is highly sensitive to exchange rate and interest rate while economic growth is highly sensitive to exchange rate and inflation in Nigeria. Further, the causation from real exchange rate to economic growth is stronger than the causation from inflation to economic growth, meaning exchange rate determines economic growth in Nigeria more than inflation does. Therefore, inflation targeting will be less preferable to exchange rate targeting in Nigeria as a policy alternative. This unexpected finding has important implications for monetary policy conduct in Nigeria

Suggested Citation

  • Ikechukwu Kelikume & Olaniyi Evans, 2015. "Inflation Targeting As A Possible Monetary Framework For Nigeria," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 9(5), pages 71-81.
  • Handle: RePEc:ibf:ijbfre:v:9:y:2015:i:5:p:71-81
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ching-Chong Lai & Juin-Jen Chang, 2001. "A Note on Inflation Targeting," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 369-380, January.
    2. Alvaro Angeriz & Philip Arestis, 2006. "Has inflation targeting had any impact on inflation?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 559-571.
    3. Fadia Al Hajj & Gilles Dufr??not, & Kimiko Sugimoto & Romain Wolf, 2013. "Reactions to Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes: Inflation Targeting Versus Flexible Currency Board in Ghana, South Africa and the WAEMU," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1062, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    4. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    5. Honda, Yuzo, 2000. "Some tests on the effects of inflation targeting in New Zealand, Canada, and the UK," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 1-6, January.
    6. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Chizuru Kato, 2011. "Assessing the performance of inflation targeting in East Asian economies," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 25(1), pages 93-102, May.
    7. Carlos Capistr¡N & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 113-134, February.
    8. Sek Siok Kun, 2012. "Evaluating the performance of inflation targeting regime in three Asian economies," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 4(2), pages 82-98, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Obaid, Shahid & Baig, Mirza Aqeel & Shah, Muzafar Ali, 2020. "Determining inflation as monetary or fiscal phenomenon: An empirical evidence from South Asia," BizEcons Quarterly, Strides Educational Foundation, vol. 6, pages 22-48.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation Targeting; Monetary Policy; Inflation;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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