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Fiscal Reaction Functions in the CFA Zone: An Analytical Perspective

Author

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  • Mr. Oral Williams
  • Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji

Abstract

The stance of fiscal policy in CEMAC and WAEMU is strongly influenced by fiscal effort in the previous period. This persistence underscores the risks of a procyclical fiscal policy stance, given these countries' high degree of dependence on primary commodities and exposure to terms of trade shocks. This paper finds that the coefficient of the lagged debt stock was significant and positive, consistent with the theory that higher levels of debt warrant greater fiscal effort. Various measures of economic performance, as captured by economic growth and per capita GDP, openness, and the terms of trade were also found to be important factors in explaining fiscal performance. As fiscal performance seems to be strongly affected by both real GDP growth and terms of trade fluctuations, there appears to be a need to develop supplementary fiscal-related criteria that take into account the influence of output and the terms of trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Oral Williams & Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji, 2007. "Fiscal Reaction Functions in the CFA Zone: An Analytical Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2007/232, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/232
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    Cited by:

    1. Sampawende Jules TAPSOBA & Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY, 2009. "Pro cyclicité de la politique budgétaire et surveillance multilatérale dans les unions monétaires africaines," Working Papers 200904, CERDI.
    2. Campos, Eduardo Lima & Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2017. "A time-varying fiscal reaction function for Brazil," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 795, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    3. Handler, Heinz, 2013. "The eurozone: piecemeal approach to an optimum currency area," MPRA Paper 67183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2012. "Structural Vulnerability and Excessive Public Indebtedness in CFA Franc Zone Countries," CERDI Working papers halshs-00749470, HAL.
    5. Fadia Al Hajj & Gilles Dufrénot & Kimiko Sugimoto & Romain Wolf, 2015. "Reactions to Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes: Inflation Targeting Versus Flexible Currency Board in Sub-Saharan Africa," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 53(4), pages 237-271, December.
    6. Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney & Sampawende Jules Tapsoba, 2011. "Pro cyclicité de la politique budgétaire et surveillance multilatérale dans les unions monétaires africaines," CERDI Working papers halshs-00554337, HAL.
    7. Sena Kimm GNANGNON, 2012. "Structural Vulnerability and Excessive Public Indebtedness in CFA Franc Zone Countries," Working Papers 201237, CERDI.
    8. Fadia Al Hajj & Gilles Dufr??not, & Kimiko Sugimoto & Romain Wolf, 2013. "Reactions to Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes: Inflation Targeting Versus Flexible Currency Board in Ghana, South Africa and the WAEMU," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1062, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    9. Sèwanoudé Honoré HOUNGBEDJI, 2021. "Budget policy, economic cycle and debt in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries: Empirical evidence based on a regime change model," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(629), W), pages 151-168, Winter.
    10. Okwoche Princewill U. & Iheonu Chimere O., 2021. "Determinants of fiscal effort in sub-Saharan African countries: Does conflict matter?," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 7(2), pages 50-73, June.
    11. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2012. "Structural Vulnerability and Excessive Public Indebtedness in CFA Franc Zone Countries," Working Papers halshs-00749470, HAL.
    12. Mr. Gaston K Mpatswe & Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba & Mr. Robert C York, 2011. "The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policies in the CEMAC Region," IMF Working Papers 2011/205, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Fisayo Fagbemi, 2020. "Assessing the Role of Governance in West African Fiscal Performance," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 65(1), pages 97-122, March.
    14. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2013. "Structural vulnerability and excessive public indebtedness in CFA Franc Zone countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 816-832.
    15. Ms. Anja Baum & Andrew Hodge & Ms. Aiko Mineshima & Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia & Rene Tapsoba, 2017. "Can They Do It All? Fiscal Space in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2017/110, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Andersson, Jens, 2018. "Tax Stabilisation, Trade and Political Transitions in Francophone West Africa over 120 Years," African Economic History Working Paper 41/2018, African Economic History Network.

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    Keywords

    WP; CEMAC; GDP; debt; WAEMU equation;
    All these keywords.

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