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Marco Bernardini

Citations

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Working papers

  1. Kamps, Christophe & Bussière, Matthieu & Niessner, Birgit & Tristani, Oreste & Christoffel, Kai & Kapadia, Sujit & Ferrero, Giuseppe & Gilbert, Niels & Vlassopoulos, Thomas & Motto, Roberto & Gerke, R, 2025. "Report on monetary policy tools, strategy and communication," Occasional Paper Series 372, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Lena Dräger & Michal Marenčák & Giang Nghiem & Maritta Paloviita, 2026. "Heterogeneity in Consumers' Economic Expectations Across Euro Area Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 12725, CESifo.
    2. Lucia Esposito & Elisa Guglielminetti & Elia Moracci & Andrea Papetti & Massimiliano Pisani, 2026. "The implications of AI for monetary policy: a first assessment," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 1051, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Ugo Dubois & Bruno Ducoudré & Raphaël Martin & Anna Petronevich & Caterina Seghini & Camille Thubin & Harri Turunen, 2026. "Re-estimated FR-BDF: New Features and an Assessment of Monetary Policy Tightening in France," Working papers 1044, Banque de France.
    4. Barauskaitė Griškevičienė, Kristina & Brand, Claus & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2026. "Pandemic-era inflation dynamics in the euro area: the role of policy and non-policy demand and energy and non-energy supply factors," Working Paper Series 3201, European Central Bank.
    5. Luca Baldo & Marco Bernardini, 2025. "What drives policy rate expectations? Evidence from the post-pandemic monetary policy cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1500, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Arden, Lucas & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Kamps, Christophe, 2025. "Inflation-stabilizing monetary and fiscal policy rules at and away from the lower bound," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    7. McClung, Nigel, 2025. "Why should fiscal imbalances concern policymakers at independent inflation-targeting central banks?," BoF Economics Review 4/2025, Bank of Finland.

  2. Marco Bernardini & Lara D'Arrigo & Alessandro Lin & Andrea Tiseno, 2024. "Real interest rates and the ECB's monetary policy stance," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 857, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Cited by:

    1. Nickel, Christiane & Kilponen, Juha & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Koester, Gerrit & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Enders, Almira & Holton, Sarah & Landau, Bettina & Venditti, Fabrizio & Bobeica, Elena & Brand, Cla, 2025. "A strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 371, European Central Bank.

  3. Marco Bernardini & Antonio M. Conti, 2023. "Announcement and implementation effects of central bank asset purchases," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1435, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Cited by:

    1. Simone Auer & Antonio Maria Conti & Paolo Farroni, 2026. "Deposit funding, market power and monetary policy transmission," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1533, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Bobasu, Alina & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Ambrocio, Gene & Auer, Simone & Bonfim, Diana & Bottero, Margherita & Brázdik, František & Buss, Ginters & Byrne, David & Casalis, André , 2025. "Monetary policy transmission: a reference guide through ESCB models and empirical benchmarks," Occasional Paper Series 377, European Central Bank.
    3. Dwyer, Gerald P. & Gilevska, Biljana & Nieto, Maria J. & Samartín, Margarita, 2023. "The effects of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policies from 2011 to 2018 on banking assets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    4. Anna Bartocci & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2024. "The macroeconomic effects of reducing a central bank monetary policy portfolio: a model-based evaluation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1472, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Bernardini, Marco & De Nicola, Annalisa, 2025. "The market stabilization role of central bank asset purchases: High-frequency evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    6. Kamps, Christophe & Bussière, Matthieu & Niessner, Birgit & Tristani, Oreste & Christoffel, Kai & Kapadia, Sujit & Ferrero, Giuseppe & Gilbert, Niels & Vlassopoulos, Thomas & Motto, Roberto & Gerke, R, 2025. "Report on monetary policy tools, strategy and communication," Occasional Paper Series 372, European Central Bank.

  4. Marco Bernardini & Alessandro Lin, 2023. "Out of the ELB: expected ECB policy rates and the Taylor rule," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 815, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Cited by:

    1. Nautz, Dieter, 2025. "Inflation target credibility and the Taylor rule," Discussion Papers 2025/9, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    2. Margherita Bottero & Antonio M. Conti, 2023. "In the thick of it: an interim assessment of monetary policy transmission to credit conditions," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 810, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Camilla Lupiani, 2024. "Taylor Rule and Shadow Rates: theory and empirical analysis," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24218, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    4. Luca Baldo & Marco Bernardini, 2025. "What drives policy rate expectations? Evidence from the post-pandemic monetary policy cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1500, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Marco Bernardini & Lara D'Arrigo & Alessandro Lin & Andrea Tiseno, 2024. "Real interest rates and the ECB's monetary policy stance," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 857, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Ma, Wei & Zhang, Renzhong & Han, Liyan & Li, Wei, 2025. "Divergent relationships between exchange rate pass-through and policy rates across economies: An extension of the Taylor rule," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. Kamps, Christophe & Bussière, Matthieu & Niessner, Birgit & Tristani, Oreste & Christoffel, Kai & Kapadia, Sujit & Ferrero, Giuseppe & Gilbert, Niels & Vlassopoulos, Thomas & Motto, Roberto & Gerke, R, 2025. "Report on monetary policy tools, strategy and communication," Occasional Paper Series 372, European Central Bank.
    8. Dieter Nautz, 2026. "Inflation target credibility and the Taylor rule," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(3), pages 689-697, July.

  5. Marco Bernardini & Annalisa De Nicola, 2020. "The market stabilization role of central bank asset purchases: high-frequency evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1310, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Jérôme Creel & Caroline Bozou, 2023. "The conditionality of monetary policy instruments," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-15, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Marco Bernardini & Antonio M. Conti, 2023. "Announcement and implementation effects of central bank asset purchases," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1435, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Riccardo Poli & Marco Taboga, 2021. "A composite indicator of sovereign bond market liquidity in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 663, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Maria Ludovica Drudi & Giulio Carlo Venturi, 2023. "Assessing the liquidity premium in the Italian bond market," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 795, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Corsi, Marco & Mudde, Yvo, 2022. "The use of the Eurosystem’s monetary policy instruments and its monetary policy implementation framework in 2020 and 2021," Occasional Paper Series 304, European Central Bank.
    6. Stefania D'Amico & Max Gillet & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl & Tim Seida, 2026. "Open-Ended Treasury Purchases: From Market Functioning to Financial Easing," Staff Reports 1183, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Bank for International Settlements, 2023. "Central bank asset purchases in response to the Covid-19 crisis," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 68.
    8. Christophe Blot & Caroline Bozou & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2022. "The Conditional PaThéof Central Bank Asset Purchases," Working papers 885, Banque de France.
    9. Altavilla, Carlo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Linzert, Tobias & Tapking, Jens & von Landesberger, Julian, 2021. "Assessing the efficacy, efficiency and potential side effects of the ECB’s monetary policy instruments since 2014," Occasional Paper Series 278, European Central Bank.
    10. Kamps, Christophe & Bussière, Matthieu & Niessner, Birgit & Tristani, Oreste & Christoffel, Kai & Kapadia, Sujit & Ferrero, Giuseppe & Gilbert, Niels & Vlassopoulos, Thomas & Motto, Roberto & Gerke, R, 2025. "Report on monetary policy tools, strategy and communication," Occasional Paper Series 372, European Central Bank.
    11. Christophe Blot & Caroline Bozou & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2021. "Are all Central Bank Asset Purchases the Same? Different Rationales, Different Effects," Working Papers hal-03554141, HAL.

  6. Simone Auer & Marco Bernardini & Martina Cecioni, 2019. "Corporate Leverage and Monetary Policy Effectiveness in the Euro Area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1258, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Cited by:

    1. Cicilia Anggadewi Harun & Danny Hermawan & Ade Dwi Aryani & Fariz Ahmad Sultansyah, 2024. "Impact Of Corporate Loan Deleveraging On Banking Performances In Indonesia," Working Papers WP/08/2024, Bank Indonesia.
    2. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
    3. Laine, Olli-Matti, 2023. "Monetary policy transmission to firms’ investments — It may depend on the tool," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    4. Canofari, Paolo & Cucculelli, Marco & Piergallini, Alessandro & Renghini, Matteo, 2025. "Tightening monetary policy and investment dynamics in the European Monetary Union: Firm- and country-level heterogeneity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    5. Elton Beqiraj & Stefano Di Bucchianico & Mario Di Serio & Michele Raitano, 2026. "The effects of monetary policy shocks on wage inequality: evidence from Italy," CIMEO Working Paper Series 201, Centre for Investigation and Modelling of Experimental Observations (CIMEO).
    6. Luisa Corrado & Daniela Fantozzi & Simona Giglioli, 2022. "Real-time inequalities and policies during the pandemic in the US," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1396, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Barrela, Rodrigo & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma & Setzer, Ralph, 2022. "Medium-term investment responses to activity shocks: the role of corporate debt," Working Paper Series 2751, European Central Bank.
    8. Chung, Min-Su & Lim, Hyunjoon, 2024. "Transmission of external shocks and regional heterogeneity: Evidence from Korean province-level data," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    9. Mattia Guerini & Giovanni Marin & Francesco Vona, 2025. "Can Easing Financial Constraints Reduce Carbon Emissions? Evidence from a Large Sample of French Companies," SEEDS Working Papers 1525, SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies, revised Dec 2025.
    10. Huynh, Japan, 2026. "Monetary policy and corporate financialization: Does banking uncertainty matter?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    11. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    12. Sangyup Choi & Tim Willems & Seung Yong Yoo, 2023. "Revisiting the Monetary Transmission Mechanism through an Industry-Level Differential Approach," Working papers 2023rwp-215, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    13. Japan Huynh, 2026. "Monetary policy and risk-taking behavior of non-financial firms," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 1-35, February.
    14. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Pool, Sebastiaan, 2025. "Interest rate control and the transmission of monetary policy," Working Paper Series 3048, European Central Bank.
    15. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Thürwächter, Claire, 2021. "Heterogeneity in corporate debt structures and the transmission of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    16. Guerini, Mattia & Marin, Giovanni & Vona, Francesco, 2025. "Easing Financial Constraints Reduce Carbon Emissions? Evidence from a Large Sample of French Companies," FEEM Working Papers 376272, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    17. Deng, Minjie & Fang, Min, 2022. "Debt maturity heterogeneity and investment responses to monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    18. Marco Flaccadoro & Tiziano Ropele, 2026. "Asymmetric monetary policy transmission across euro-area manufacturing industries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1535, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Valentin Winkler, 2026. "When and Why State-Dependent Local Projections Work," Papers 2601.01622, arXiv.org.
    20. Joseph, Delide & Ifft, Jennifer, 2026. "Debt, Liquidity, and the Financial Constraints of Conservation Adoption: Evidence from Kansas Commercial Farms," 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri 404334, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    21. Alpanda, Sami & Granziera, Eleonora & Zubairy, Sarah, 2021. "State dependence of monetary policy across business, credit and interest rate cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    22. Tingting Hu & Char-Lee Lok & Kun You, 2025. "R&D Expenditure and Firms’ Exports: Does CEO Foreign Experience Matter?," SAGE Open, , vol. 15(3), pages 21582440251, August.
    23. Lai, Xiaobing & Yue, Shujing & Guo, Chong & Zhang, Xinhe, 2023. "Does FinTech reduce corporate excess leverage? Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 281-299.
    24. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Uz, Dilek & Sevindik, Irem, 2022. "How do macroeconomic dynamics affect small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the power sector in developing economies: Evidence from Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    25. Cappiello, Lorenzo & Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Maddaloni, Angela & Mayordomo, Sergio & Unger, Robert & Arts, Laura & Meme, Nicolas & Asimakopoulos, Ioannis & Migiakis, Petros & Behrens, Caterina & Moura, 2021. "Non-bank financial intermediation in the euro area: implications for monetary policy transmission and key vulnerabilities," Occasional Paper Series 270, European Central Bank.
    26. Nicoletta Berardi, 2024. "R(a)ising Prices While Struggling: Firms Financial Constraints and Price Setting," Working papers 942, Banque de France.
    27. Khuderchuluun Batsukh & Nicolas Groshenny & Naveed Javed, 2025. "Monetary policy transmission and household indebtedness in Australia," TEPP Working Paper 2025-02, TEPP.
    28. Corrado, Luisa & Fantozzi, Daniela & Giglioli, Simona, 2026. "Quasi-fiscal policies in times of crisis: A high-frequency data analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    29. Gonçalves, Sílvia & Herrera, Ana María & Kilian, Lutz & Pesavento, Elena, 2024. "State-dependent local projections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).

  7. Marco Bernardini & Selien De Schryder & Gert Peersman, 2017. "Heterogeneous Government Spending Multipliers in the Era Surrounding the Great Recession," CESifo Working Paper Series 6479, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Florio, Anna & Siena, Daniele & Zago, Riccardo, 2025. "Global value chains and the Phillips curve: A challenge for monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    2. Equiza-Goni, J. & Faraglia, E. & Oikonomou, R., 2018. "Union Debt Management," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1890, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. KLEIN, Mathias & POLATTIMUR, Hamza & WINKLER, Roland, 2020. "Fiscal spending multipliers over the household leverage cycle," Working Papers 2020007, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    4. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Luca Fanelli & Marco Mazzali, 2025. "The Size and Uncertainty of Government Spending Multipliers in Italian Regions," Working Papers wp1216, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    5. Olivier Cardi & Romain Restout, 2023. "Sectoral fiscal multipliers and technology in open economy," Post-Print hal-04522948, HAL.
    6. Frangiamore, Francesco & Matarrese, Marco Maria, 2025. "Government spending multipliers and financial fragility in Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    7. Philipp Heimberger & Anna Matzner, 2026. "Fiscal consolidation and political instability," wiiw Working Papers 274, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    8. Duque Gabriel, Ricardo & Klein, Mathias & Pesso, Ana Sofia, 2020. "The Effects of Government Spending in the Eurozone," Working Paper Series 400, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    9. Zhang, Wen, 2020. "Political incentives and local government spending multiplier: Evidence for Chinese provinces (1978–2016)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 59-71.
    10. Pallante, Gianluca & Russo, Emanuele & Roventini, Andrea, 2023. "Does public R&D funding crowd-in private R&D investment? Evidence from military R&D expenditures for US states," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(8).
    11. Olesya V. Polyakova, 2023. "Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Different Economic Conditions [Эффективность Фискальной Политики В Разных Условиях Функционирования Экономики]," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 10, pages 45-52, October.
    12. Berge, Travis & De Ridder, Maarten & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2021. "When is the fiscal multiplier high? A comparison of four business cycle phases," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 111517, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Gabriel, Ricardo Duque & Klein, Mathias & Pessoa, Sofia, 2022. "The Political Costs of Austerity," Working Paper Series 418, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    14. Choi, Sangyup & Shin, Junhyeok, 2023. "Household indebtedness and the macroeconomic effects of tax changes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 22-52.
    15. Yuliya Demyanyk & Elena Loutskina & Daniel Murphy, 2019. "Fiscal Stimulus and Consumer Debt," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 728-741, October.
    16. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder‐Plassmann, 2021. "Nonlinear effects of government spending shocks in the USA: Evidence from state‐level data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 86-97, January.
    17. Coppola, Gianluigi & Destefanis, Sergio & Di Serio, Mario & Fragetta, Matteo, 2024. "Fiscal multipliers in recession and expansion. An analysis for the Italian regions," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 538-556.
    18. Valentin Winkler, 2026. "When and Why State-Dependent Local Projections Work," Papers 2601.01622, arXiv.org.
    19. Olesya V. Polyakova, 2023. "Эффективность Фискальной Политики В Разных Условиях Функционирования Экономики," Russian Economic Development (in Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 10, pages 45-52, October.
    20. Yoon J. Jo & Sarah Zubairy, 2021. "State dependent government spending multipliers: Downward nominal wage rigidity and sources of business cycle fluctuations," Working Papers 20210127-001, Texas A&M University, Department of Economics.
    21. Marco Amendola & Marcelo C. Pereira, 2025. "Are fiscal multipliers state dependent? Insights from an agent-based model," LEM Papers Series 2025/10, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    22. Gianluca Pallante & Emanuele Russo & Andrea Roventini, 2020. "Does mission-oriented funding stimulate private R&D? Evidence from military R&D for US states," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-04097530, HAL.
    23. Jiménez, Alvaro & Rodríguez, Gabriel & Ataurima Arellano, Miguel, 2023. "Time-varying impact of fiscal shocks over GDP growth in Peru: An empirical application using hybrid TVP-VAR-SV models," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 314-332.
    24. Javier Andrés & José E. Boscá & Javier Ferri & Cristina Fuentes-Albero, 2018. "Households' balance sheets and the effect of fiscal policy," Working Papers 1831, Banco de España.
    25. Mark J. Garmaise & Gabriel Natividad, 2024. "Fiscal windfalls and entrepreneurship: fostering entry or promoting incumbents?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 133-158, January.
    26. Sebastian Laumer & Collin Philipps, 2024. "Does the Government Spending Multiplier Depend on the Business Cycle?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(8), pages 2001-2022, December.
    27. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Luca Fanelli & Marco Mazzali, 2026. "Global factors for local shocks in a data-scarce environment: with an application to regional fiscal multipliers in Italy," Papers 2607.13879, arXiv.org.
    28. Kris Boudt & Koen Schoors & Milan van den Heuvel & Johannes Weytjens, 2023. "Taming the Zoo of Consumption Responses to Labour Income Changes," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 23/1067, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    29. Di Serio, Mario, 2024. "Public debt determinants: A time-varying analysis of core and peripheral Euro area countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    30. Yasin Kürşat Önder & Maria Alejandra Ruiz-Sanchez & Sara Restrepo-Tamayo & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2021. "Government Borrowing and Crowding Out," Borradores de Economia 1182, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    31. Michael Boutros & Andrej Mijakovic, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Implications of Coholding," Staff Working Papers 24-16, Bank of Canada.
    32. Di Pietro Filippo & Haustein Erik & Conte Andrea & D'adamo Gaetano & Winterhager Vincent, 2026. "EU Budget: The crowd-in effects," JRC Working Papers on Territorial Modelling and Analysis 2026-06, Joint Research Centre.
    33. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Shao, Peng & Zhang, Shuwei, 2023. "Policy coordination and the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    34. Denis Gorea & Ding Xuan Ng & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2026. "Financial and real effects of fiscal risk," BIS Working Papers 1364, Bank for International Settlements.
    35. Gonçalves, Sílvia & Herrera, Ana María & Kilian, Lutz & Pesavento, Elena, 2024. "State-dependent local projections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).

  8. Marco Bernardini & Lorenzo Forni, 2017. "Private and Public Debt: Are Emerging Markets at Risk?," IMF Working Papers 2017/061, International Monetary Fund.

    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Seyed Reza Yousefi, 2019. "Public Sector Balance Sheet Strength and the Macro Economy," IMF Working Papers 2019/170, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Yun Jung Kim & Jing Zhang, 2020. "The Relationship between Debt and Output," Working Paper Series WP-2020-30, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. Lim, Jamus Jerome, 2019. "Growth in the shadow of debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 98-112.
    4. Park, Donghyun & Shin, Kwanho & Tian, Shu, 2023. "Debts and depth of recessions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 468-485.
    5. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2017. "A Cross-Country Database of Fiscal Space," CEPR Discussion Papers 12196, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    6. Samba Mbaye & Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia & Kyungla Chae, 2018. "Bailing Out the People? When Private Debt Becomes Public," IMF Working Papers 2018/141, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Beirne, John & Renzhi, Nuobu, 2024. "Debt shocks and the dynamics of output and inflation in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    8. Menna Bizuneh & Menelik Geremew, 2021. "Assessing the Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Emerging Market Economies’ (EMEs) Sovereign Bond Risk Premium and Fiscal Solvency," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 519-545, October.

  9. Marco Bernardini & Gert Peersman, 2015. "Private Debt Overhang and the Government Spending Multiplier: Evidence for the United States," CESifo Working Paper Series 5284, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Morelli, 2025. "New Keynesian Models, Puzzles and Omitted Effects," CEIS Research Paper 604, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 20 Jun 2025.
    2. KLEIN, Mathias & POLATTIMUR, Hamza & WINKLER, Roland, 2020. "Fiscal spending multipliers over the household leverage cycle," Working Papers 2020007, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    3. Luca Metelli & Kevin Pallara, 2020. "Fiscal space and the size of the fiscal multiplier," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1293, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Martin Geiger & Marios Zachariadis, 2019. "Assessing Expectations as a Monetary/Fiscal State-Dependent Phenomenon," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 01-2019, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    5. Mathias Klein, 2017. "Austerity and Private Debt," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1555-1585, October.
    6. Frangiamore, Francesco & Matarrese, Marco Maria, 2025. "Government spending multipliers and financial fragility in Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    7. Klein, Mathias & Winkler, Roland, 2019. "Austerity, inequality, and private debt overhang," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 89-106.
    8. José E. Boscá & Javier Ferri & Margarita Rubio, 2025. "Fiscal and macroprudential policies in a monetary union," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 365-399, July.
    9. Youngju Kim & Hyunjoon Lim, 2017. "Transmission of Monetary Policy in Times of High Household Debt," Working Papers 2017-35, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    10. Rüth, Sebastian K. & Simon, Camilla, 2022. "How do income and the debt position of households propagate fiscal stimulus into consumption?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    11. Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T. & Zubairy, Sarah, 2018. "Debt and stabilization policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 67-91.
    12. Zhang, Wen, 2020. "Political incentives and local government spending multiplier: Evidence for Chinese provinces (1978–2016)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 59-71.
    13. Tore Dubbert & Adrian Schroeder, 2025. "Conditioning business and financial cycles on multivariate information," CQE Working Papers 11225, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    14. Boris Hofmann & Hyun Song Shin & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2019. "FX intervention and domestic credit: evidence from high-frequency micro data," Borradores de Economia 1069, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    15. Piotr Krajewski & Agata Szymanska, 2019. "The effectiveness of fiscal policy within business cycle-Ricardians vs. non-Ricardians approach," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 195-215.
    16. Mauro Sayar Ferreira & Berto Carvalho da Silva Jr, 2025. "Fiscal multiplier in Brazil: the role played by controls," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 684, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    17. Sami Alpanda & Sarah Zubairy, 2019. "Household Debt Overhang and Transmission of Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1265-1307, August.
    18. Sungbae An & Hyosang Kim & Seung-Hyun Kim & Da Young Yang & Jinhee Lee & Ko Un Cho & Wongi Kim & Jinill Kim, 2021. "포스트 코로나 시대 주요국의 통화·재정정책 방향과 시사점(hanges, Challenges and Implications of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Directions in the Post Pandemic Era)," Policy Analyses 21-15, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.
    19. Sami Alpanda & Hyunji Song & Sarah Zubairy, 2021. "Household Debt and the Effects of Fiscal Policy," Working Papers 20210928-001, Texas A&M University, Department of Economics.
    20. Swapan-Kumar Pradhan & Elod Takats & Judit Temesvary, 2024. "How does fiscal policy affect the transmission of monetary policy into cross-border bank lending? Cross-country evidence," BIS Working Papers 1226, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Elton Beqiraj & Milos Ciganovic & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Paolo D'Imperio & Cristian Tegami, 2026. "Which Slack Matters for Fiscal Multipliers? Evidence from Italian Aggregate Data," CIMEO Working Paper Series 203, Centre for Investigation and Modelling of Experimental Observations (CIMEO).
    22. Breitenlechner, Max & Geiger, Martin & Scharler, Johann, 2022. "Bank liquidity and the propagation of uncertainty in the U.S," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    23. Nyholm, Juho & Silvo, Aino, 2026. "Household debt, the real economy, and financial stability: A literature review," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2026, Bank of Finland.
    24. IIBOSHI, Hirokuni & IWATA, Yasuharu, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," MPRA Paper 116347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Marco Bernardini & Selien De Schryder & Gert Peersman, 2020. "Heterogeneous Government Spending Multipliers in the Era Surrounding the Great Recession," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 304-322, May.
    26. Olesya V. Polyakova, 2023. "Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Different Economic Conditions [Эффективность Фискальной Политики В Разных Условиях Функционирования Экономики]," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 10, pages 45-52, October.
    27. Max Breitenlechner & Johann Scharler, 2020. "Private Sector Debt, Financial Constraints, and the Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from the US," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(4), pages 889-915, August.
    28. Martin Geiger & Marios Zachariadis, 2021. "Consumers' updating, policy shocks and public debt: An empirical assessment of state dependencies," Arbeitspapiere 69, Liechtenstein-Institut.
    29. Haug, Alfred A. & Sznajderska, Anna, 2024. "Government spending multipliers: Is there a difference between government consumption and investment purchases?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    30. Simone Emiliozzi & Filippo Favero, 2025. "Unveiling natural gas consumption sectoral price elasticities," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 941, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    31. Choi, Sangyup & Shin, Junhyeok, 2023. "Household indebtedness and the macroeconomic effects of tax changes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 22-52.
    32. Yasuharu Iwata & Hirokuni IIboshi, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 830-858, August.
    33. Pragidis, I.C. & Tsintzos, P. & Plakandaras, B., 2018. "Asymmetric effects of government spending shocks during the financial cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 372-387.
    34. Ahmed, M. Iqbal & Faheem, Adeel & Farah, Quazi Fidia, 2026. "Do gasoline price expectations affect household readiness to spend at the ZLB? Evidence from Michigan survey data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    35. Lee, Yeil & Hur, Joonyoung, 2026. "Effects of government spending shocks by household indebtedness: An OECD panel analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    36. Venance Riblier, 2023. "The Fiscal Cost of Public Debt and Government Spending Shocks," Papers 2309.07371, arXiv.org.
    37. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder‐Plassmann, 2021. "Nonlinear effects of government spending shocks in the USA: Evidence from state‐level data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 86-97, January.
    38. Valentin Winkler, 2026. "When and Why State-Dependent Local Projections Work," Papers 2601.01622, arXiv.org.
    39. Olesya V. Polyakova, 2023. "Эффективность Фискальной Политики В Разных Условиях Функционирования Экономики," Russian Economic Development (in Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 10, pages 45-52, October.
    40. Francesco Simone Lucidi, 2023. "The misalignment of fiscal multipliers in Italian regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(10), pages 2073-2086, October.
    41. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay C. Lim, 2018. "What Do We Know about the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy? A Brief Survey of the Literature on Fiscal Multipliers," CESifo Working Paper Series 7366, CESifo.
    42. Imadeddin Ahmed Almosabbeh, 2020. "Is the Relationship Between Government Spending and Private Consumption in Egypt Symmetric?," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 14(3), pages 285-308, August.
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    44. Marco Amendola & Marcelo C. Pereira, 2025. "Are fiscal multipliers state dependent? Insights from an agent-based model," LEM Papers Series 2025/10, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    45. Tianbao Zhou & Zhixin Liu & Yingying Xu, 2024. "How do financial variables impact public debt growth in China? An empirical study based on Markov regime-switching model," Papers 2407.02183, arXiv.org.
    46. Osiebuni Collins OBU & Wilfred I. UKPERE, 2022. "The Implications of the Incursion of Cryptocurrency on the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 23(1), pages 134-150, June.
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Articles

  1. Bernardini, Marco & De Nicola, Annalisa, 2025. "The market stabilization role of central bank asset purchases: High-frequency evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Bernardini, Marco & Lin, Alessandro, 2024. "Out of the ELB: Expected ECB policy rates and the Taylor rule," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Auer, Simone & Bernardini, Marco & Cecioni, Martina, 2021. "Corporate leverage and monetary policy effectiveness in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Bernardini, Marco & Forni, Lorenzo, 2020. "Private and public debt interlinkages in bad times," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).

    Cited by:

    1. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Andrew Powell, 2023. "Sovereign Debt Management," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 6, pages 123-160, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. María Cecilia Acevedo & Leandro Andrián & Victoria Nuguer & Oscar Mauricio Valencia, 2023. "Understanding the Rise in Debt," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 4, pages 67-94, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. Casabianca, Elizabeth Jane & Catalano, Michele & Forni, Lorenzo & Giarda, Elena & Passeri, Simone, 2022. "A machine learning approach to rank the determinants of banking crises over time and across countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    4. Brändle, Thomas & Elsener, Marc, 2023. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey on recent evidence," Working papers 2023/07, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    5. Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia, 2023. "The Bottom Line on Debt," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 13, pages 309-318, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. Ugo Panizza & Andrew Powell, 2023. "Reducing Public Debt: What Works Best?," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 9, pages 197-222, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Rodrigo Heresi & Andrew Powell, 2023. "Balance Sheet Vulnerabilities in the Wake of the Pandemic," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 12, pages 285-308, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Maria Malmierca-Ordoqui & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Lorenzo Bermejo, 2024. "Private and public debt convergence: a fractional cointegration approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 161-183, February.
    9. Thomas Brändle & Marc Elsener, 2024. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey of recent evidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 160(1), pages 1-38, December.
    10. Eduardo Cavallo & Eduardo Fernández Arias, 2023. "Strong External Balance Sheets for Resilient Economies," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 2, pages 5-36, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. João Tovar Jalles & Paulo Medas, 2022. "Economic Growth after Debt Surges," Working Papers REM 2022/0244, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    12. Powell, Andrew & Valencia, Oscar, 2023. "Dealing with Debt: Less Risk for More Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 12664.
    13. João Ayres & Anna Gelpern & Andrew Powell, 2023. "Sovereign Debt Restructuring: In Need of a New Approach," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 10, pages 223-254, Inter-American Development Bank.
    14. Salamaliki, Paraskevi K., 2024. "Globalization and fiscal policy after financial crises," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    15. Lee, Yeil & Hur, Joonyoung, 2026. "Effects of government spending shocks by household indebtedness: An OECD panel analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    16. Leopoldo Avellán & Arturo Galindo & Giulia Lotti, 2023. "Official Creditors: Providing More than Money," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 7, pages 161-182, Inter-American Development Bank.
    17. García, Concepción González, 2025. "Fiscal consolidation in heavily indebted economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    18. Paraskevi K. Salamaliki & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2024. "Fiscal Space and Policy Response to Financial Crises: Market Access and Deficit Concerns," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 323-361, April.
    19. Juan Manuel Hernández & Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia, 2023. "Debt Sustainability: More Important than Ever," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 5, pages 95-122, Inter-American Development Bank.
    20. Eduardo Borensztein & Eduardo Cavallo, 2023. "Domestic Bond Markets: Successes and Challenges," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 3, pages 37-66, Inter-American Development Bank.
    21. Zabavnik, Darja & Verbič, Miroslav, 2025. "Revisiting the impact of financial shocks on the fiscal position of euro area countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 622-635.
    22. Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia, 2023. "The Debt Conundrum," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 1, pages 1-4, Inter-American Development Bank.
    23. Egbétoké, Amétépé & Ureche-Rangau, Loredana, 2026. "Vulnerability to climate change and funding squeeze in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    24. María Cecilia Acevedo & Vanessa Alviarez & Joaquin Lennon Sabatini, 2023. "Managing Private Debt," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 11, pages 255-284, Inter-American Development Bank.
    25. Leandro Andrián & Oscar Mauricio Valencia, 2023. "Past the Tipping Point? Assessing Debt Overhang in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 8, pages 183-196, Inter-American Development Bank.
    26. Elizabeth J. Casabianca, 2020. "Credit Supply Response to Non-Performing Loans: Some Evidence From the Italian Banking System," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(4), pages 1-3.
    27. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    28. Jalles, João Tovar & Medas, Paulo, 2024. "The economic aftermath of surges in public and private debt: Initial conditions and channels," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(3).
    29. Claudio Borio & Marc Farag & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2023. "Tackling the fiscal policy-financial stability nexus," BIS Working Papers 1090, Bank for International Settlements.
    30. Michal Skara & Ladislava Issever Grochova, 2025. "Do inequality and fiscal redistribution matter when credit bites back?," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2025-108, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.

  5. Marco Bernardini & Selien De Schryder & Gert Peersman, 2020. "Heterogeneous Government Spending Multipliers in the Era Surrounding the Great Recession," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 304-322, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Marco Bernardini & Gert Peersman, 2018. "Private debt overhang and the government spending multiplier: Evidence for the United States," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 485-508, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
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