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Government Borrowing and Crowding Out

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  • Yasin Kürşat Önder
  • Sara Restrepo-Tamayo
  • Maria Alejandra Ruiz-Sanchez
  • Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas

Abstract

We investigate the impact of fiscal expansions on firm investment by exploiting firms with multiple banking relationships. Further, we conduct a localized approach and compare the lending behavior of banks that barely met and missed the criteria of being a primary dealer, as well as barely winners and losers at government auctions. Our results indicate that a 1 percentage point increase in primary dealer banks' bonds-to-assets ratio decreases loans by 0.2 percent, which leads to declines in firm investment, profits, and wages. Our findings are grounded in a quantitative model with which we compute the cost of borrowing on the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasin Kürşat Önder & Sara Restrepo-Tamayo & Maria Alejandra Ruiz-Sanchez & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2024. "Government Borrowing and Crowding Out," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 286-321, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:16:y:2024:i:1:p:286-321
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200273
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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