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How diabolic is the sovereign-bank loop? The effects of post-default fiscal policies

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  • Diniz, André
  • Guimaraes, Bernardo

Abstract

The deleterious effect of debt restructuring on banks’ balance sheets and, consequently, on the economy as a whole has been a key policy issue. This paper studies how post-default fiscal policy interacts with this sovereign-bank loop and shape the response of a model economy. Calibration of the model matches characteristics of the Greek economy at the time of the bond exchange. Debt restructuring in place of higher lump-sum taxation or lower nonproductive government spending harms the economy even if no other cost of default is considered. However, the sovereign-debt loop is less costly to the economy than increases in labor or capital taxes to service debt. Even so, if fiscal policy is too responsive, a crowding-out effect inhibits the recovery of capital markets, hence a more conservative fiscal stance is desirable. Thus, how diabolic the post-default sovereign-bank loop is depends to a large extent on the way fiscal policy responds.

Suggested Citation

  • Diniz, André & Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2023. "How diabolic is the sovereign-bank loop? The effects of post-default fiscal policies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 601-634, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:27:y:2023:i:3:p:601-634_2
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