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An exploration of the offset hypothesis using disaggregate data: The case of airbags and antilock brakes

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  • Clifford Winston
  • Vikram Maheshri
  • Fred Mannering

Abstract

The offset hypothesis predicts consumers adapt to innovations that improve safety by becoming less vigilant about safety. Previous tests have used aggregate data that may confound the effect of a safety policy with those consumers who are most affected by it. We test the hypothesis using disaggregate data to analyze the effects of airbags and antilock brakes on automobile safety. We find that safety-conscious drivers are more likely than other drivers to acquire airbags and antilock brakes but these safety devices do not have a significant effect on collisions or injuries, suggesting drivers trade off enhanced safety for speedier trips. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2006

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  • Clifford Winston & Vikram Maheshri & Fred Mannering, 2006. "An exploration of the offset hypothesis using disaggregate data: The case of airbags and antilock brakes," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 83-99, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:32:y:2006:i:2:p:83-99
    DOI: 10.1007/s11166-006-8288-7
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    3. Gaudry, Marc & de Lapparent, Matthieu, 2013. "Part 3. Multivariate road safety models: Future research orientations and current use to forecast performance," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 38-56.
    4. Nicholas Wilson & Wentao Xiong & Christine Mattson, 2011. "Is Sex Like Driving? Risk Compensation Associated with Randomized Male Circumcision in Kisumu, Kenya," Center for Development Economics 2011-09, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Jan 2012.
    5. Vikram Maheshri & Clifford Winston, 2016. "Did the Great Recession keep bad drivers off the road?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 255-280, June.
    6. Hoy, Michael & Polborn, Mattias K., 2015. "The value of technology improvements in games with externalities: A fresh look at offsetting behavior," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 12-20.
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    9. Berlemann, Michael & Matthes, Andreas, 2014. "Positive externalities from active car safety systems," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 313-329.
    10. Donald N. Dewees, 2016. "Are Automated Vehicles Coming at the Right Speed?," Working Papers tecipa-564, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    11. Deiana, Claudio & Maheshri, Vikram & Mastrobuoni, Giovanni, 2021. "Migrants at Sea: Unintended Consequences of Search and Rescue Operations," CEPR Discussion Papers 16173, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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