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Part 3. Multivariate road safety models: Future research orientations and current use to forecast performance


  • Gaudry, Marc
  • de Lapparent, Matthieu


The third part of the state-of-the-art focuses on the future of road safety modeling and on conjectures concerning the evolution of national safety indicators. In the absence of econometric developments specific to road safety modeling, the research future must rely on pre-existing statistical procedures of econometrics applied to discrete/count and to aggregate data. In terms of contents, growing interest in the heterogeneity of road accident outcomes by category of victims could lead to treatments of this issue across research streams, say by top-down and bottom-up developments, but this speculation does not rest on extant adequate formulations of the issue of road user class and victim analysis. But understanding the time profile of aggregate national performance indicators is quite another matter.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaudry, Marc & de Lapparent, Matthieu, 2013. "Part 3. Multivariate road safety models: Future research orientations and current use to forecast performance," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 38-56.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:37:y:2013:i:1:p:38-56
    DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2012.02.003

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Aaron S. Edlin & Pinar Karaca-Mandic, 2006. "The Accident Externality from Driving," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(5), pages 931-955, October.
    2. Clifford Winston & Vikram Maheshri & Fred Mannering, 2006. "An exploration of the offset hypothesis using disaggregate data: The case of airbags and antilock brakes," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 83-99, March.
    3. Obeng, Kofi & Burkey, Mark, 2008. "Explaining crashes at intersections with red light cameras: A note," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 811-817, June.
    4. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387, March.
    5. Grabowski, David C. & Morrisey, Michael A., 2006. "Do higher gasoline taxes save lives?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 51-55, January.
    6. Yves Crozet & Iragaël Joly, 2004. "Budgets temps de transport : les sociétés tertiaires confrontées à la gestion paradoxale du " bien le plus rare "," Post-Print halshs-00068933, HAL.
    7. Winston, Clifford & Mannering, Fred, 1984. "Consumer Demand for Automobile Safety," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 316-319, May.
    8. Blum, U.C.H. & Foos, G. & Gaudry, M.J.I., 1986. "Aggregate Time Series Gasoline Demand Models. Review of the Literature and New Evidence for West Germany," Cahiers de recherche 8617, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    9. Russell S. Sobel & Todd M. Nesbit, 2007. "Automobile Safety Regulation and the Incentive to Drive Recklessly: Evidence from NASCAR," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 74(1), pages 71-84, July.
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