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Financial contagion and economic development: An epidemiological approach

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  • Bucci, Alberto
  • La Torre, Davide
  • Liuzzi, Danilo
  • Marsiglio, Simone

Abstract

We develop an epidemiological approach to analyze how financial contagion may affect and be affected by economic activity. We show that, according to specific parameter values, the economy may converge either to a non-speculative or to a speculative equilibrium: in the former situation the level of per capita income is maximal, while in the latter it is reduced by financial contagion. The presence of economic and financial feedback effects may also give rise to macroeconomic fluctuations during the transitional path, clearly showing that such economic and financial links are an important driver of the short run macroeconomic performance. By extending the analysis to a spatial dimension, we also show that financial contagion in some specific region may propagate quickly also in regions far away from those in which the contagion initially occurs, highlighting the role of regional policy coordination to avoid interregional contagion.

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  • Bucci, Alberto & La Torre, Davide & Liuzzi, Danilo & Marsiglio, Simone, 2019. "Financial contagion and economic development: An epidemiological approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 211-228.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:162:y:2019:i:c:p:211-228
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2018.12.018
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    7. Wang, Ze & Gao, Xiangyun & Huang, Shupei & Sun, Qingru & Chen, Zhihua & Tang, Renwu & Di, Zengru, 2022. "Measuring systemic risk contribution of global stock markets: A dynamic tail risk network approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    8. Aymeric Vi'e & Alfredo J. Morales, 2019. "How connected is too connected? Impact of network topology on systemic risk and collapse of complex economic systems," Papers 1912.09814, arXiv.org.
    9. Chen, Naixi & Fan, Hong, 2023. "Credit risk contagion and optimal dual control—An SIS/R model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 448-472.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Diffusion; Economic fluctuations; Economic growth; Financial contagion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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