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Counterparty choice, maturity shifts and market freezes: Lessons from the European interbank market

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  • Saroyan, Susanna

Abstract

We explore the impact of relationship lending on the interbank debt maturity structure of banks using data from the e-MID market covering both pre- and post-Lehman periods. We study the term structure and maturity shortening of interbank lending as an indicator of risk in times of stress. We identify bank-level and pair-level variables which are shown to contain information about the behaviour of lending relations during times of stress. Using a two-part fractional response model we show that durable liquidity relationships increase the probability of contracting term loans, but do not prevent maturity shortening during periods of acute stress. Finally, we find that lenders with concentrated short-term interbank liability structure tend to reduce their own long term lending, which confirms the rollover risk viewpoint of term interbank market freeze. Our findings are relevant for the modelling of interbank networks under stress and the design of forward looking stress tests for the banking system.

Suggested Citation

  • Saroyan, Susanna, 2024. "Counterparty choice, maturity shifts and market freezes: Lessons from the European interbank market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:160:y:2024:i:c:s0165188924000113
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104819
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    Keywords

    Interbank markets; Liquidity risk; Maturity shift; Relationship lending; Interbank networks; Counterparty risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

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