IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bno/worpap/2019_11.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Liquidity at risk: Joint stress testing of solvency and liquidity

Author

Listed:
  • Rama Cont
  • Artur Kotlicki
  • Laura Valderrama

Abstract

The traditional approach to the stress testing of financial institutions focuses on capital adequacy and solvency. Liquidity stress tests are often applied in parallel to solvency stress tests, based on scenarios which may not be consistent with those used in solvency stress tests. We propose a structural framework for the joint stress testing of solvency and liquidity: our approach exploits the mechanisms underlying the solvency-liquidity nexus to derive relations between solvency shocks and liquidity shocks. These relations are then used to model liquidity and solvency risk in a coherent framework, involving external shocks to solvency and endogenous liquidity shocks. We introduce solvency-liquidity diagrams as a method for analysing the resilience of a balance sheet to the resulting combination of solvency shocks and endogenous liquidity shocks. Finally, we define the concept of 'Liquidity at Risk' which quantifies the liquidity resources required for a financial institution facing a stress scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Rama Cont & Artur Kotlicki & Laura Valderrama, 2019. "Liquidity at risk: Joint stress testing of solvency and liquidity," Working Paper 2019/11, Norges Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2019_11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.norges-bank.no/en/news-events/news-publications/Papers/Working-Papers/2019/112019/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean-Charles Rochet & Xavier Vives, 2004. "Coordination Failures and the Lender of Last Resort: Was Bagehot Right After All?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(6), pages 1116-1147, December.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke, 2015. "The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9928-2.
    3. Schuermann, Til, 2014. "Stress testing banks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 717-728.
    4. Postel-Vinay, Natacha, 2016. "What Caused Chicago Bank Failures in the Great Depression? A Look at the 1920s," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 76(2), pages 478-519, June.
    5. Imbierowicz, Björn & Rauch, Christian, 2014. "The relationship between liquidity risk and credit risk in banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 242-256.
    6. Rama Cont, 2017. "Central clearing and risk transformation," Working Paper 2017/3, Norges Bank.
    7. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    8. Sujit Kapadia & Matthias Drehmann & John Elliott & Gabriel Sterne, 2012. "Liquidity Risk, Cash Flow Constraints, and Systemic Feedbacks," NBER Chapters, in: Quantifying Systemic Risk, pages 29-61, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Diane Pierret, 2015. "Systemic Risk and the Solvency-Liquidity Nexus of Banks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(3), pages 193-227, June.
    10. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2016. "Illiquidity Component Of Credit Risk," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 1135-1148, November.
    11. Gorton, Gary B., 2012. "Misunderstanding Financial Crises: Why We Don't See Them Coming," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199922901.
    12. Farag, Marc & Harland , Damian & Nixon, Dan, 2013. "Bank capital and liquidity," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(3), pages 201-215.
    13. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 615-647, April.
    14. Robert McDonald & Anna Paulson, 2015. "AIG in Hindsight," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 81-106, Spring.
    15. Bindseil, Ulrich & Corsi, Marco & Sahel, Benjamin & Visser, Ad, 2017. "The Eurosystem collateral framework explained," Occasional Paper Series 189, European Central Bank.
    16. Cornett, Marcia Millon & McNutt, Jamie John & Strahan, Philip E. & Tehranian, Hassan, 2011. "Liquidity risk management and credit supply in the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 297-312, August.
    17. Jeffrey Levine & Asani Sarkar, 2019. "How Do Large Banks Manage Their Cash?," Liberty Street Economics 20190717, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Stefan W. Schmitz & Michael Sigmund & Laura Valderrama, 2019. "The interaction between bank solvency and funding costs: A crucial effect in stress tests," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 48(2), July.
    19. Gechun Liang & Eva Lütkebohmert & Yajun Xiao, 2014. "A Multiperiod Bank Run Model for Liquidity Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 803-842.
    20. Jose Fique, 2017. "The MacroFinancial Risk Assessment Framework (MFRAF), Version 2.0," Technical Reports 111, Bank of Canada.
    21. Postel-Vinay, Natacha, 2016. "What caused Chicago bank failures in the Great Depression? A look at the 1920s," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88844, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Valentina Macchiati & Giuseppe Brandi & Tiziana Di Matteo & Daniela Paolotti & Guido Caldarelli & Giulio Cimini, 2022. "Systemic liquidity contagion in the European interbank market," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(2), pages 443-474, April.
    2. Saroyan, Susanna, 2024. "Counterparty choice, maturity shifts and market freezes: Lessons from the European interbank market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    3. Katherin Carrera-Silva & Olga Maritza Rodríguez Ulcuango & Paula Abdo-Peralta & Ángel Gerardo Castelo Salazar & Carmen Amelia Samaniego Erazo & Diego Haro Ávalos, 2024. "Beyond the Financial Horizon: A Critical Review of Social Responsibility in Latin American Credit Unions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-23, September.
    4. David Aikman & Daniel Beale & Adam Brinley-Codd & Anne-Caroline Hüser & Giovanni Covi & Caterina Lepore, 2023. "Macro-Prudential Stress Test Models: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 2023/173, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Feinstein, Zachary & Sojmark, Andreas, 2021. "Short communication: dynamic default contagion in heterogeneous interbank systems," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123789, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. de Bandt, Olivier & Lecarpentier, Sandrine & Pouvelle, Cyril, 2021. "Determinants of banks’ liquidity: A French perspective on interactions between market and regulatory requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    7. Christie, Nick & Jankensgård, Håkan & Marinelli, Nicoletta, 2024. "The Black Swan problem: The role of capital, liquidity and operating flexibility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    8. Florian NEAGU & Irina MIHAI, 2022. "Macroprudential Liquidity Stress Test : How To Cope With Liquidity Drains," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 96-111, December.
    9. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Hüser, Anne-Caroline & Kok, Christoffer, 2022. "Contagion accounting in stress-testing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Michel Baes & Eric Schaanning, 2023. "Reverse stress testing: Scenario design for macroprudential stress tests," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 209-256, April.
    11. Kotlicki, Artur & Austin, Andrea & Humphry, David & Burnett, Hanna & Ridgill, Philip & Smith, Sam, 2023. "Network analysis of the UK reinsurance market," Bank of England working papers 1000, Bank of England.
    12. Gersbach, Hans & Haller, Hans & Zelzner, Sebastian, 2023. "Enough liquidity with enough capital - And vice versa?," CFS Working Paper Series 714, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    13. Cristina Zeldea, 2020. "Modeling the Connection between Bank Systemic Risk and Balance-Sheet Liquidity Proxies through Random Forest Regressions," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-14, August.
    14. Sydow, Matthias & Schilte, Aurore & Covi, Giovanni & Deipenbrock, Marija & Del Vecchio, Leonardo & Fiedor, Pawel & Fukker, Gábor & Gehrend, Max & Gourdel, Régis & Grassi, Alberto & Hilberg, Björn & Ka, 2024. "Shock amplification in an interconnected financial system of banks and investment funds," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    15. Toloo, Mehdi & Tone, Kaoru & Izadikhah, Mohammad, 2023. "Selecting slacks-based data envelopment analysis models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 308(3), pages 1302-1318.
    16. J. Rickman & M. Falkenberg & S. Kothari & F. Larosa & M. Grubb & N. Ameli, 2024. "The challenge of phasing-out fossil fuel finance in the banking sector," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Jinqing & He, Liang & An, Yunbi, 2020. "Measuring banks’ liquidity risk: An option-pricing approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    2. Tobias Adrian, 2015. "Discussion of “Systemic Risk and the Solvency-Liquidity Nexus of Banks”," Staff Reports 722, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Rim Boussaada & Abdelaziz Hakimi & Majdi Karmani, 2022. "Is there a threshold effect in the liquidity risk–non‐performing loans relationship? A PSTR approach for MENA banks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1886-1898, April.
    4. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    5. Ippolito, Filippo & Peydró, José-Luis & Polo, Andrea & Sette, Enrico, 2016. "Double bank runs and liquidity risk management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 135-154.
    6. Macher, Flora, 2018. "The Austrian banking crisis of 1931: one bad apple spoils the whole bunch," Economic History Working Papers 87151, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    7. Mr. Dimitri G Demekas, 2015. "Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests: Progress So Far and the Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 2015/146, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Zhang, Lei & Zhang, Lin & Zheng, Yong, 2013. "Wholesale Funding, Coordination, and Credit Risk," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 124, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    9. Sun, Junjie & Wu, Deming & Zhao, Xinlei, 2018. "Systematic risk factors and bank failures," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-18.
    10. Diane Pierret, 2015. "Systemic Risk and the Solvency-Liquidity Nexus of Banks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(3), pages 193-227, June.
    11. Acharya, Viral V. & Berger, Allen N. & Roman, Raluca A., 2018. "Lending implications of U.S. bank stress tests: Costs or benefits?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 58-90.
    12. Schmidt, Kirsten, 2019. "Does liquidity regulation impede the liquidity profile of collateral?," Working Paper Series 2256, European Central Bank.
    13. Diana Bonfim & Moshe Kim, 2012. "Liquidity risk in banking: is there herding?," Working Papers w201218, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    14. Céline Gauthier & Alfred Lehar & Héctor Pérez Saiz & Moez Souissi, 2015. "Emergency Liquidity Facilities, Signalling and Funding Costs," Staff Working Papers 15-44, Bank of Canada.
    15. Grodecka-Messi, Anna & Kenny, Seán & Ögren, Anders, 2021. "Predictors of bank distress: The 1907 crisis in Sweden," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    16. Huang, Shu-Chun & Chen, Wei-Da & Chen, Yehning, 2018. "Bank liquidity creation and CEO optimism," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 101-117.
    17. Tian, Shu & Park, Donghyun & Cagas, Marie Anne, 2021. "Bond market development and bank stability: Evidence from emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    18. Andrey Krishenik & Andreea Minca & Johannes Wissel, 2015. "When do creditors with heterogeneous beliefs agree to run?," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 233-259, April.
    19. Mitchener, Kris & Richardson, Gary, 2020. "Contagion of Fear," CEPR Discussion Papers 14510, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Sclip, Alex & Girardone, Claudia & Miani, Stefano, 2019. "Large EU banks’ capital and liquidity: Relationship and impact on credit default swap spreads," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 438-461.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2019_11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nbgovno.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.