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Liquidity at risk: Joint stress testing of solvency and liquidity

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  • Rama Cont
  • Artur Kotlicki
  • Laura Valderrama

Abstract

The traditional approach to the stress testing of financial institutions focuses on capital adequacy and solvency. Liquidity stress tests are often applied in parallel to solvency stress tests, based on scenarios which may not be consistent with those used in solvency stress tests. We propose a structural framework for the joint stress testing of solvency and liquidity: our approach exploits the mechanisms underlying the solvency-liquidity nexus to derive relations between solvency shocks and liquidity shocks. These relations are then used to model liquidity and solvency risk in a coherent framework, involving external shocks to solvency and endogenous liquidity shocks. We introduce solvency-liquidity diagrams as a method for analysing the resilience of a balance sheet to the resulting combination of solvency shocks and endogenous liquidity shocks. Finally, we define the concept of 'Liquidity at Risk' which quantifies the liquidity resources required for a financial institution facing a stress scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Rama Cont & Artur Kotlicki & Laura Valderrama, 2019. "Liquidity at risk: Joint stress testing of solvency and liquidity," Working Paper 2019/11, Norges Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2019_11
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    2. Saroyan, Susanna, 2024. "Counterparty choice, maturity shifts and market freezes: Lessons from the European interbank market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
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    4. David Aikman & Daniel Beale & Adam Brinley-Codd & Anne-Caroline Hüser & Giovanni Covi & Caterina Lepore, 2023. "Macro-Prudential Stress Test Models: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 2023/173, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Feinstein, Zachary & Sojmark, Andreas, 2021. "Short communication: dynamic default contagion in heterogeneous interbank systems," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123789, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. de Bandt, Olivier & Lecarpentier, Sandrine & Pouvelle, Cyril, 2021. "Determinants of banks’ liquidity: A French perspective on interactions between market and regulatory requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    7. Christie, Nick & Jankensgård, Håkan & Marinelli, Nicoletta, 2024. "The Black Swan problem: The role of capital, liquidity and operating flexibility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    8. Florian NEAGU & Irina MIHAI, 2022. "Macroprudential Liquidity Stress Test : How To Cope With Liquidity Drains," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 96-111, December.
    9. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Hüser, Anne-Caroline & Kok, Christoffer, 2022. "Contagion accounting in stress-testing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Michel Baes & Eric Schaanning, 2023. "Reverse stress testing: Scenario design for macroprudential stress tests," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 209-256, April.
    11. Kotlicki, Artur & Austin, Andrea & Humphry, David & Burnett, Hanna & Ridgill, Philip & Smith, Sam, 2023. "Network analysis of the UK reinsurance market," Bank of England working papers 1000, Bank of England.
    12. Gersbach, Hans & Haller, Hans & Zelzner, Sebastian, 2023. "Enough liquidity with enough capital - And vice versa?," CFS Working Paper Series 714, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    13. Cristina Zeldea, 2020. "Modeling the Connection between Bank Systemic Risk and Balance-Sheet Liquidity Proxies through Random Forest Regressions," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-14, August.
    14. Sydow, Matthias & Schilte, Aurore & Covi, Giovanni & Deipenbrock, Marija & Del Vecchio, Leonardo & Fiedor, Pawel & Fukker, Gábor & Gehrend, Max & Gourdel, Régis & Grassi, Alberto & Hilberg, Björn & Ka, 2024. "Shock amplification in an interconnected financial system of banks and investment funds," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    15. Toloo, Mehdi & Tone, Kaoru & Izadikhah, Mohammad, 2023. "Selecting slacks-based data envelopment analysis models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 308(3), pages 1302-1318.
    16. J. Rickman & M. Falkenberg & S. Kothari & F. Larosa & M. Grubb & N. Ameli, 2024. "The challenge of phasing-out fossil fuel finance in the banking sector," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.

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