IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pri/metric/081_2016.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Illiquidity Component of Credit Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen Morris

    (Princeton University)

  • Hyun Song Shin

    (Bank for International Settlements; Princeton University)

Abstract

We provide a theoretical decomposition of bank credit risk into insolvency risk and illiquidity risk, defining illiquidity risk to be the counterfactual probability of failure due to a run when the bank would have survived in the absence of a run. We show that illiquidity risk is (i) decreasing in the "liquidity ratio"--the ratio of realizable cash on the balance sheet to short-term liabilities; (ii) decreasing in the excess return of debt; and (iii) increasing in the solvency uncertainty--a measure of the variance of the asset portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2016. "Illiquidity Component of Credit Risk," Working Papers 081_2016, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Econometric Research Program..
    • Handle: RePEc:pri:metric:081_2016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://detc.princeton.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/wp081_2016_Morris_Shin_Illiquidity-Component-of-Credit-Risk.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean-Charles Rochet & Xavier Vives, 2004. "Coordination Failures and the Lender of Last Resort: Was Bagehot Right After All?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(6), pages 1116-1147, December.
    2. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-597, June.
    3. Xavier Vives, 2014. "Strategic Complementarity, Fragility, and Regulation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(12), pages 3547-3592.
    4. Carlsson, Hans & van Damme, Eric, 1993. "Global Games and Equilibrium Selection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 989-1018, September.
    5. Postlewaite, Andrew & Vives, Xavier, 1987. "Bank Runs as an Equilibrium Phenomenon," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 485-491, June.
    6. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    7. Gorton, Gary, 1988. "Banking Panics and Business Cycles," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 751-781, December.
    8. Itay Goldstein & Ady Pauzner, 2005. "Demand–Deposit Contracts and the Probability of Bank Runs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1293-1327, June.
    9. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song & Yildiz, Muhamet, 2016. "Common belief foundations of global games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 826-848.
    10. Jimmy Shek & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2018. "Investor Redemptions and Fund Manager Sales of Emerging Market Bonds: How Are They Related? [Borrow cheap, buy high? The determinants of leverage and pricing in buyouts]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 207-241.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stieglitz, Moritz & Setzer, Ralph, 2022. "Firm-level employment, labour market reforms, and bank distress," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. Javadi, Siamak & Mollagholamali, Mohsen, 2018. "Debt market illiquidity and correlated default risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 266-273.
    3. Alexander Bechtel & Angelo Ranaldo & Jan Wrampelmeyer, 2023. "Liquidity Risk and Funding Cost," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 399-422.
    4. Naoto Okahara, 2019. "Banks’ disclosure of information and financial stability regulations," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 91-115, June.
    5. Schilling, Linda, 2017. "Optimal Forbearance of Bank Resolution," MPRA Paper 112409, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Aikman, David & Haldane, Andrew & Hinterschweiger, Marc & Kapadia, Sujit, 2018. "Rethinking financial stability," Bank of England working papers 712, Bank of England.
    7. Rana Yassir Hussain Xuezhou Wen Rehan Sohail Butt Haroon Hussain Sikandar Ali Qalati Irfan Abbas, 2020. "Are Growth Led Financing Decisions Causing Insolvency in Listed Firms of Pakistan?," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 23(2), pages 89-115, November.
    8. Cont, Rama & Kotlicki, Artur & Valderrama, Laura, 2020. "Liquidity at risk: Joint stress testing of solvency and liquidity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    9. Ahnert, Toni & Martinez-Miera, David, 2021. "Bank Runs, Bank Competition and Opacity," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242348, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Szkup, Michal, 2020. "Multiplier effect and comparative statics in global games of regime change," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(2), May.
    11. Choi, Dong Beom & Eisenbach, Thomas M. & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2021. "Watering a lemon tree: Heterogeneous risk taking and monetary policy transmission," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    12. Gersbach, Hans & Haller, Hans & Zelzner, Sebastian, 2023. "Enough liquidity with enough capital - And vice versa?," CFS Working Paper Series 714, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    13. Linda Schilling, 2018. "Optimal Forbearance of Bank Resolution," Working Papers 2018-15, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    14. Vo, Quynh-Anh, 2021. "Interactions of capital and liquidity requirements: a review of the literature," Bank of England working papers 916, Bank of England.
    15. Zhao Li & Kebin Ma, 2022. "Contagious Bank Runs and Committed Liquidity Support," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(12), pages 9152-9174, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2016. "Illiquidity Component Of Credit Risk – The 2015 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1135-1148, November.
    2. Xavier Vives, 2014. "Strategic Complementarity, Fragility, and Regulation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(12), pages 3547-3592.
    3. Zhiguo He & Wei Xiong, 2012. "Dynamic Debt Runs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(6), pages 1799-1843.
    4. Allen, Franklin & Carletti, Elena & Goldstein, Itay & Leonello, Agnese, 2018. "Government guarantees and financial stability," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 518-557.
    5. Chanelle Duley & Prasanna Gai, 2020. "When the penny doesn't drop - Macroeconomic tail risk and currency crises," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 520, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    6. Chen, Qi & Goldstein, Itay & Jiang, Wei, 2010. "Payoff complementarities and financial fragility: Evidence from mutual fund outflows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 239-262, August.
    7. Dunhong Jin & Marcin Kacperczyk & Bige Kahraman & Felix Suntheim, 2022. "Swing Pricing and Fragility in Open-End Mutual Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(1), pages 1-50.
    8. Xavier Vives, 2011. "Competition and Stability in Banking," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 12, pages 455-502, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Naqvi, Hassan, 2015. "Banking crises and the lender of last resort: How crucial is the role of information?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 20-29.
    10. Assaf Razin & Itay Goldstein, 2012. "Review Of Theories of Financial Crises," 2012 Meeting Papers 214, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Ahnert, Toni & Georg, Co-Pierre, 2018. "Information contagion and systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 159-171.
    12. Angeletos, G.-M. & Lian, C., 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1065-1240, Elsevier.
    13. Zhang, Jinqing & He, Liang & An, Yunbi, 2020. "Measuring banks’ liquidity risk: An option-pricing approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    14. Edmond, Chris, 2018. "Non-Laplacian beliefs in a global game with noisy signaling," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 297-312.
    15. Gu, Chao, 2007. "Asymmetric Information and Bank Runs," Working Papers 07-14, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    16. Kristian Blickle & Markus Brunnermeier & Stephan Luck, 2020. "Micro-evidence from a System-wide Financial Meltdown: The German Crisis of 1931," Working Papers 275, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    17. Iachan, Felipe S. & Nenov, Plamen T., 2015. "Information quality and crises in regime-change games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 739-768.
    18. Elena Carletti & Itay Goldstein & Agnese Leonello, 2019. "The interdependence of bank capital and liquidity," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19128, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    19. Ahnert, Toni & Hoffmann, Peter & Leonello, Agnese & Porcellacchia, Davide, 2023. "CBDC and financial stability," Working Paper Series 2783, European Central Bank.
    20. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2001. "Rethinking Multiple Equilibria in Macroeconomic Modeling," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 139-182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pri:metric:081_2016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bobray Bordelon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/exprius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.