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AIG in Hindsight

Author

Listed:
  • Robert McDonald
  • Anna Paulson

Abstract

The near-failure on September 16, 2008, of American International Group (AIG) was an iconic moment in the financial crisis. Two large bets on real estate made with funding vulnerable to bank-run-like dynamics pushed AIG to the brink of bankruptcy. AIG used securities lending to transform insurance company assets into residential mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations, ultimately losing at least $21 billion and threatening the solvency of the life insurance companies. AIG also sold insurance on multisector collateralized debt obligations, backed by real estate assets, ultimately losing more than $30 billion. These activities were apparently motivated by a belief that AIG's real estate bets would not suffer defaults and were "money-good." We find that these securities have in fact suffered write-downs and that the stark "money-good" claim can be rejected. Ultimately, both liquidity and solvency were issues for AIG.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert McDonald & Anna Paulson, 2015. "AIG in Hindsight," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 81-106, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:29:y:2015:i:2:p:81-106
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/jep.29.2.81
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. FSOC and Systemic Risk: Treasury's Report
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      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2019-03-18 12:19:47

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Corradin, Stefano & Heider, Florian & Hoerova, Marie, 2017. "On collateral: implications for financial stability and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2107, European Central Bank.
    2. Ahmed Mehedi Nizam, 2021. "Cost, uncertainties and profit in commercial and social insurances," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-28, July.
    3. Sebastiano Michele Zema, 2023. "Uncovering the network structure of non-centrally cleared derivative markets: evidence from large regulatory data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1799-1822, October.
    4. Franch, Fabio & Nocciola, Luca & Vouldis, Angelos, 2024. "Temporal networks and financial contagion," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. J Doyne Farmer & Alissa M Kleinnijenhuis & Paul Nahai-Williamson & Thom Wetzer, 2020. "Foundations of system-wide financial stress testing with heterogeneous institutions," Bank of England working papers 861, Bank of England.
    6. Czech, Robert, 2021. "Credit default swaps and corporate bond trading," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    7. Michelle L. Barnes, 2016. "Did life insurers benefit from TARP or regulatory forbearance during the financial crisis of 2008–2009?," Working Papers 16-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    8. Karolina Puławska, 2021. "Financial Stability of European Insurance Companies during the COVID-19 Pandemic," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-16, June.
    9. Alexandra de Jong & Alin Draghiciu & Linda Fache Rousová & Alessandro Fontana & Elisa Letizia, 2019. "Impact of Variation Margining on EU Insurers’ Liquidity: An Analysis of Interest Rate Swaps Positions," EIOPA Financial Stability Report - Thematic Articles 16, EIOPA, Risks and Financial Stability Department.
    10. Kraft, Pepa & Xie, Yuan & Zhou, Ling, 2020. "The intraday timing of rating changes," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    11. Nathan Foley-Fisher & Borghan N. Narajabad & Stéphane Verani, 2016. "Securities Lending as Wholesale Funding : Evidence from the U.S. Life Insurance Industry," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-050, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Cont, Rama & Kotlicki, Artur & Valderrama, Laura, 2020. "Liquidity at risk: Joint stress testing of solvency and liquidity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    13. Regele, Fabian & Gründl, Helmut, 2021. "Asset concentration risk and insurance solvency regulation," ICIR Working Paper Series 40/21, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    14. Bruno Biais & Florian Heider & Marie Hoerova, 2021. "Variation Margins, Fire Sales, and Information-constrained Optimality [Leverage, Moral Hazard, and Liquidity]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(6), pages 2654-2686.
    15. Juan Ospina & Harald Uhlig, 2018. "Mortgage-Backed Securities and the Financial Crisis of 2008: a Post Mortem," NBER Working Papers 24509, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Flood, Mark D. & Kenett, Dror Y. & Lumsdaine, Robin L. & Simon, Jonathan K., 2020. "The Complexity of Bank Holding Companies: A Topological Approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    17. Nathan Foley-Fisher & Stefan Gissler & Stephane Verani, 2019. "Over-the-Counter Market Liquidity and Securities Lending," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 33, pages 272-294, July.
    18. Carmela D’Avino, 2019. "Extraterritoriality of swaps regulation and regulatory arbitrage," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 167-187, December.
    19. Girardi, Giulio & Hanley, Kathleen W. & Nikolova, Stanislava & Pelizzon, Loriana & Sherman, Mila Getmansky, 2021. "Portfolio similarity and asset liquidation in the insurance industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 69-96.
    20. Allen, Linda & Tang, Yi, 2016. "What’s the contingency? A proposal for bank contingent capital triggered by systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-14.
    21. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2017. "Risk of Life Insurers: Recent Trends and Transmission Mechanisms," NBER Working Papers 23365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Pascal Böni & Heinz Zimmermann, 2024. "The Credit Suisse bailout in hindsight: not a bitter pill to swallow, but a case to follow," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 38(1), pages 1-35, March.
    23. Zema, Sebastiano Michele, 2022. "Uncovering the network structure of non-centrally cleared derivative markets: evidences from regulatory data," Working Paper Series 2721, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts

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