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Citations for "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others"

by Townsend, Robert M

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  1. Albert Marcet & David A. Marshall, 1994. "Solving nonlinear rational expectations models by parameterized expectations: Convergence to stationary solutions," Economics Working Papers 76, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  2. Adam, Klaus, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Imperfect Common Knowledge," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/12, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  3. Seong-Hoon Kim, 2011. "Sequential Action and Beliefs under Partially Observable DSGE Environments," CDMA Working Paper Series 201116, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  4. Eric van Wincoop & Philippe Bacchetta, 2004. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 628, Econometric Society.
  5. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2004. "International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach," International Finance 0405006, EconWPA.
  6. Marc Joëts, 2013. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Regret, and Uncertainty: The Role of Speculation in Energy Price Dynamics," Working Papers 2013.32, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  7. Todd B. Walker, 2006. "How Equilibrium Prices Reveal Information in Time Series Models with Disparately Informed, Competitive Traders," Caepr Working Papers 2006-011, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  8. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2014. "Solving DSGE portfolio choice models with dispersed private information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-24.
  9. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas & Selahattin Togay, 2009. "Optimal Monetary Policy For Postwar Iraq," Working Papers 488, Economic Research Forum, revised May 2009.
  10. F. Pancotto & G. Pignataro & D. Raggi, 2014. "Higher order beliefs and the dynamics of exchange rates," Working Papers wp957, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  11. Danny Quah, 1988. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," Working papers 498, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  12. Lof, Matthijs, 2011. "Noncausality and Asset Pricing," MPRA Paper 30519, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Alan Kirman, 2006. "Heterogeneity in Economics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 89-117, May.
  14. Chang, M. C. & Chu, C. Y. Cyrus & Lin, Kenneth S., 1995. "A note on least-squares learning mechanism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 1293-1296.
  15. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1995. "Rational Routes to Randomness," Working Papers 95-03-029, Santa Fe Institute.
  16. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche, 2008. "Estimating fundamental cross-section dispersion from fixed event forecasts," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200801, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
  17. McNulty, Mark S. & Huffman, Wallace E., 1996. "Market equilibria with endogenous, hierarchical information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 607-626, April.
  18. Mirko Wiederholt & Bartosz Mackowiak, 2005. "Optimal Sticky Prices under Rational Inattention," 2005 Meeting Papers 369, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  19. Jennifer La'O & George-Marios Angeletos, 2009. "Dispersed Information over the Business Cycle: Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy," 2009 Meeting Papers 221, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  20. John Barrdear, 2014. "Peering into the mist: social learning over an opaque observation network," Discussion Papers 1409, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  21. Pearlman, Joseph G., 2005. "Central bank transparency and private information in a dynamic macroeconomic model," Working Paper Series 0455, European Central Bank.
  22. Hua He & Jiang Wang, 1995. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," NBER Working Papers 5010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Elías Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Dynamic Dispersed Information and the Credit Spread Puzzle," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 720, Central Bank of Chile.
  24. Manuel Amador & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2010. "Learning from Prices: Public Communication and Welfare," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(5), pages 866 - 907.
  25. Francisco Barillas & Kristoffer Nimark, 2012. "Speculation, risk premia and expectations in the yield curve," Economics Working Papers 1337, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2013.
  26. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Sean Holly, 2010. "Understanding Interactions in Social Networks and Committees," CDMA Working Paper Series 201004, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  27. Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2008. "Endogenous information, menu costs and inflation persistence," NBER Working Papers 14184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1406, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  29. Dudek, Maciej K., 2014. "Living in an imaginary world that looks real," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 209-223.
  30. Garratt, Anthony & Hall, Stephen G., 1997. "E-equilibria and adaptive expectations: Output and inflation in the LBS model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1149-1171, June.
  31. Leonardo Melosi, 2009. "A Likelihood Analysis of Models with Information Frictions," 2009 Meeting Papers 1034, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  32. Jeffery D. Amato & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Public and Private Information in Monetary Policy Models," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 117, Netherlands Central Bank.
  33. Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2005. "Information Flows and Aggregate Persistence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 416, Society for Computational Economics.
  34. Madrigal, Vicente & Scheinkman, Jose A., 1997. "Price Crashes, Information Aggregation, and Market-Making," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 16-63, July.
  35. Chen, Baoline & Zadrozny, Peter A., 2002. "An anticipative feedback solution for the infinite-horizon, linear-quadratic, dynamic, Stackelberg game," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1397-1416, August.
  36. Jennifer La'O, 2010. "Collateral Constraints and Noisy Fluctuations," 2010 Meeting Papers 780, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  37. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," CREATES Research Papers 2008-56, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  38. Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur & Togay, Selahattin, 2010. "Optimal monetary policy regime for oil producing developing economies: Implications for post-war Iraq," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1324-1336, September.
  39. Kurz, Mordecai, 2008. "Beauty contests under private information and diverse beliefs: How different?," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(7-8), pages 762-784, July.
  40. Antulio N. Bomfim & Francis X. Diebold, 1996. "Bounded Rationality and Strategic Complementarity in a Macroeconomic Model: Policy Effects, Persistence and Multipliers," NBER Working Papers 5482, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Maciej K. Dudek, 2005. "Expectation Formation and Endogenous Fluctuations in Aggregate Demand," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 263, Society for Computational Economics.
  42. Carin van der Cruijsen & Sylvester Eijffinger, 2007. "The economic impact of central bank transparency: a survey," DNB Working Papers 132, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  43. Barrell, Ray & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hall, Stephen & Garratt, Anthony, 1997. "Learning about monetary union: An analysis of bounded rational learning in European labor markets," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 469-489, October.
  44. Leonardo Melosi, 2012. "Signaling effects of monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-2012-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  45. Rondina, Giacomo & Walker, Todd B., 2013. "A note on Futia (1981)’s non-existence pathology of rational expectations equilibria," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 177-180.
  46. Nimark, Kristoffer P, 2013. "Man-bites-dog Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 9517, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  47. Kristoffer Nimark, 2007. "Dynamic Higher Order Expectations," 2007 Meeting Papers 542, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  48. Kirman, Alan & Teyssiere, Gilles, 2005. "Testing for bubbles and change-points," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 765-799, April.
  49. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2000. "Global Games: Theory and Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1275, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  50. Follmer, Hans & Horst, Ulrich & Kirman, Alan, 2005. "Equilibria in financial markets with heterogeneous agents: a probabilistic perspective," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 123-155, February.
  51. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Woodford, Michael, 2004. "Indicator variables for optimal policy under asymmetric information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 661-690, January.
  52. Bomfim, Antulio N., 2001. "Heterogeneous forecasts and aggregate dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 145-161, February.
  53. Liam Graham & Stephen Wright, 2009. "Information, heterogeneity and market incompleteness," Kiel Working Papers 1503, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  54. Kurz, Mordecai, 2006. "Beauty contests under private information and diverse beliefs: how different?," MPRA Paper 233, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2006.
  55. Michele Berardi, 2011. "Strategic interactions, incomplete information and learning," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 157, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  56. Makarov, Igor & Rytchkov, Oleg, 2012. "Forecasting the forecasts of others: Implications for asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 941-966.
  57. Holden, Tom, 2008. "Rational macroeconomic learning in linear expectational models," MPRA Paper 10872, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  58. de Jong, Eelke & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2010. "Heterogeneity of agents and exchange rate dynamics: Evidence from the EMS," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1652-1669, December.
  59. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August.
  60. Muhamet Yildiz & Jonathan Weinsten, 2004. "Impact of higher-order uncertainty," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 157, Econometric Society.
  61. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  62. David Howden, 2010. "Knowledge shifts and the business cycle: When boom turns to bust," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 165-182, June.
  63. Sargent, Thomas J., 1996. "Expectations and the nonneutrality of Lucas," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 535-548, June.
  64. Alexis Derviz & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Coordination Incentives in Cross-Border Macroprudential Regulation," Working Papers IES 2012/21, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2012.
  65. Jonathan Weinstein & Muhamet Yildiz, 2004. "Finite-Order Implications of Any Equilibrium," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000000065, David K. Levine.
  66. George-Marios Angeletos & Alessandro Pavan, 2008. "Policy with Dispersed Information," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 86, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  67. Antulio N. Bomfim, 1996. ""Forecasting the forecasts of others." Expectational heterogeneity and aggregate dynamics," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-41, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  68. Mordecai Kurz, 2007. "Rational Diverse Beliefs and Economic Volatility," Discussion Papers 06-045, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  69. Jamsheed Shorish, 2010. "Functional rational expectations equilibria in market games," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 351-376, June.
  70. Dudek, Maciej K., 2010. "A consistent route to randomness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 354-381, January.
  71. Christian Hellwig, 2004. "Heterogeneous Information and the Benefits of Public Information Disclosures (October 2005)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 283, UCLA Department of Economics.
  72. Manoj Atolia & Ryan Chahrour, 2013. "Intersectoral Linkages, Diverse Information, and Aggregate Dynamics in a Neoclassical Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 832, Boston College Department of Economics.
  73. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing," Working Papers 04.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  74. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1996. " Strategic Trading When Agents Forecast the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1437-78, September.
  75. Kenza Benhima, 2013. "Booms and Busts with dispersed information," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 13.11, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  76. Jörn Tenhofen & Guntram B. Wolff, 2010. "Does anticipation of government spending matter? The role of (non-)defense spending," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse12_2010, University of Bonn, Germany.
  77. Giacomo Rondina, 2013. "Informational Fragility of Dynamic Rational Expectations Equilibria," 2013 Meeting Papers 83, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  78. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2005. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination?," FAME Research Paper Series rp155, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  79. Kelly, David L. & Shorish, Jamsheed, 2000. "Stability of Functional Rational Expectations Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 215-250, December.
  80. RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 1998. "Uncovering Financial Markets Beliefs About Inflation Targets," Cahiers de recherche 9803, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  81. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2007. "Incomplete information and self-fulfilling prophecies," Working Papers 2007-033, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  82. Saffi, Pedro, 2008. "Differences of opinion, information and the timing of trades," IESE Research Papers D/747, IESE Business School.
  83. Joseph G. Pearlman & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Knowing the Forecasts of Others," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 480-497, April.
  84. Klaeffling, Matt, 2003. "Monetary policy shocks - a nonfundamental look at the data," Working Paper Series 0228, European Central Bank.
  85. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & George Perendia, 2007. "Estimating DSGE Models under Partial Information," CDMA Working Paper Series 200722, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  86. Albert Marcet & Thomas J. Sargent, 1992. "Speed of convergence of recursive least squares learning with ARMA perceptions," Economics Working Papers 15, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  87. Kenneth Kasa, 2000. "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others in the Frequency Domain," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(4), pages 726-756, October.
  88. Naik, Narayan Y., 1997. "On aggregation of information in competitive markets: The dynamic case," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1199-1227, June.
  89. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2006. "Inertia of Forward-Looking Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 152-157, May.
  90. Guido Lorenzoni, 2009. "A Theory of Demand Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2050-84, December.
  91. Spyros Pagratis, 2005. "Asset pricing, asymmetric information and rating announcements: does benchmarking on ratings matter?," Bank of England working papers 265, Bank of England.
  92. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2009. "On the Unstable Relationship between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 15008, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  93. Lee E. Ohanian & Marco Del Negro & Tao Zha, 2005. "Monetary policy and learning," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 257-261, April.
  94. George-Marios Angeletos & Jennifer La'O, 2009. "Incomplete Information, Higher-Order Beliefs and Price Inertia," NBER Working Papers 15003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  95. Enrique Martinez-Garcia, 2007. "A monetary model of the exchange rate with informational frictions," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 02, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  96. Goto, Shingo, 2000. "The Fed's Effect on Excess Returns and Inflation is Much Bigger Than You Think," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt04f1z5hb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  97. Nimark, Kristoffer P., 2003. "Indicator Accuracy and Monetary Policy: Is Ignorance Bliss?," Working Paper Series 157, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  98. David Goldbaum, 2013. "Learning and Adaptation as a Source of Market Failure," Working Paper Series 14, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  99. Kristoffer Nimark, 2009. "Speculative dynamics in the term structure of interest rates," Economics Working Papers 1194, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2012.
  100. Kenneth J. Singleton, 1986. "Asset Prices in a Time Series Model with Disparately Informed, Competative Traders," NBER Working Papers 1897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  101. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas, 2007. "Inflation Targeting as a Signalling Mechanism," Working Papers 0701, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
  102. Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets Capital Adequacy Regulation: In Search of a Rationale," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-06, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  103. Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2008. "Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 325-340, June.
  104. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2004. "Characterizing Asymmetric Information in International Equity Markets," International Finance 0405005, EconWPA.
  105. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas, 2014. "Why is Inflation Targeting Successful?: Analysis of Inflation Target Transparency," EcoMod2014 6725, EcoMod.
  106. Michael Dotsey, 1985. "Monetary policy, secrecy, and federal funds rate behavior," Working Paper 85-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  107. Christian Hellwig, . "Monetary Business Cycle Models: Imperfect Information (Review Article, March 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 377, UCLA Department of Economics.
  108. Baxter, Brad & Graham, Liam & Wright, Stephen, 2011. "Invertible and non-invertible information sets in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 295-311, March.
  109. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2009. "A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1036-1051, May.
  110. repec:ipg:wpaper:31 is not listed on IDEAS
  111. Martin Chalkley & In Ho Lee, 1998. "Learning and Asymmetric Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(3), pages 623-645, July.
  112. Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur, 2011. "An explanation for the price puzzle: Asymmetric information and expectation dynamics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 259-275, June.
  113. Hall, S. G. & Garratt, A., 1995. "Model consistent learning and regime switching in the London Business School model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 87-95, April.
  114. Dieppe, Alistair & Pandiella, Alberto González & Hall, Stephen & Willman, Alpo, 2013. "Limited information minimal state variable learning in a medium-scale multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 808-825.